Stars $15 10pm tourney - bad call or bad beat? |
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Posted Fri Mar 02, 2007 12:13 pm GMT by viking75ft
Last night I played the $15 10pm tourney on stars. Struggled all night with just below avg stack. Break came and went. Finally caught some cards and doubled up 2 hands in a row knocking 2 loose players out. Now I'm double the average with ~300 players left and in the top 20. I sit for a while then start seeing cards again. After being missed numerous times and losing 1/3 of my stack i get dealt QQ. I bet 3xbb after a few limpers (late position). Guy to my left pushes, fold, push, push, and fold the rest to me. I call....
QQ me
KJ
Kx
Kx
K comes on late flop or turn...no queens for me...
KJ takes 3 people out with his kicker.... me at 186th place. this was my 4th attempt the this tourney.
I figure that they all had less that 1% chance of catching the king since there was only 1 left in the deck....
Now...my question....
bad call or bad beat? With 3 shoves I didn't think that all had AA or KK. Was I wrong in thinking this...They all were loose and I had played tight most the night.
????
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Posted Fri Mar 02, 2007 2:36 pm GMT by efram
With 3 shoves in front, depending on the stack sizes I would opt to fold that hand being that you have a large chip stack and can wait to get your money in with a better hand later on. You don't need to risk your tornament life yet.
Thinking one of them would least have AA, or KK.
If they are all shorties I would call, but that doesn't sound like the case.
Results oriented you clearly made a good call and hit an extremely unlucky
beat, but.., I think probly close to 30-40% of the time, if not more, with 3 shoves in front you're down to K's or As. The other half you're a coin flip vs AK.
Tuff to lay queens down in that situation tho. Bummer on the beat.
Why flip coins when you have a big stack?
Posted Fri Mar 02, 2007 4:12 pm GMT by acmucker
i agree with the above reply. The decision is stack size depended. If your short you have to push in this situation. If your tall, you can wait it out. It's all about surviving until you get a clear cut opportunity to increase your stack
Posted Fri Mar 02, 2007 5:39 pm GMT by golddog
| viking75ft wrote: | | With 3 shoves I didn't think that all had AA or KK. Was I wrong in thinking this...They all were loose and I had played tight most the night. |
Just to make sure what the other guys said is clear, I think this is the flaw in your line of logic. Undoubtedly they didn't all have AA or KK. But, only one of them had to in order for you to be in real trouble.
As they say, this should be a pretty easy fold. I'll admit that I'd have a hard time getting away too.
So, to answer the question: both. With that action, possible slow-played AA or KK looking for action. For this specific example, it's pretty tough to say a one-outer isn't a bad beat. But don't be results-oriented.
Posted Fri Mar 02, 2007 7:13 pm GMT by viking75ft
thanks guys...that's what i'm looking for. basically I felt like I set my self up for a bad beat...
Posted Sat Mar 03, 2007 1:31 am GMT by Jefecaminador
Like previously said it depends on stack sizes, but generally you aren't gonna be up against aces or kings here. However, you prolly are up against someone with an ace and someone with a king, plus a bunch of other cards. You're facing off against 3 other people, even with queens you probably arent favored to win the hand. You're prolly ahead of each individual hand, but cumulatively you're an underdog. Still, unless you're deepstacked and so are your opponents I call in this situation. You're getting huge odds and I'd say most of the time you're a 35-40% winner.
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