heads up sit-and-go hypotheticals (HU Match situations) |
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Posted Sat Mar 03, 2007 6:26 pm GMT by supafrey
Hiya. Everyone loves a good flipament so I figured we'd try and see how different stack sizes / risk / math affects you ppls. Excuse me if it's not that interesting 
Either way.
For any of these questions, assume we're somewhere in the 2nd or 3d blind level of a normal HU sng on stars or ft. Lets say somewhere in the 15/30 blind level for arguments sake, with about 1500 starting stacks.
1. You're HU and have made some small gains against your opponent lately. There hasn't been really that much play, but you've pulled out a small lead. Our opp goes all-in preflop and we're holding XY. Their chipstack is roughly 1k and ours is 2k.
a) What % of a HU favourite would you need to be to call this vs a random opponent?
b) " " " against a particularily weak opponent (one you think you could beat atleast 3/5 times in normal sngs)
c) " " " against Supafrey?
d) " " " against Phil Hellmuth?
2. Same situation, same all in. Excusing any strange reasoning you may not ACTUALLY know what your opp has, but lets just play with hypothetical XY again. This time the chipstacks are 750 for him, and 2250 for us.
a) % fave you'd need to be (i.e. minimum you'd call with) vs random?
b) vs weak opponent?
c) vs me (supa)
d) vs Hellmuth?
3. our opp goes all in for 500 chips, we've got 2500.
a) What range of hands do you call with (Notice this is a diff question than before... i want examples) vs a random opp?
b) Weak?
c) Me?
d) Hellmuth?
4. Our opp goes all in first hand.. What % fave would you need to be to call?
a) random
b) weak?
c) Me?
d) Hellmuth?
5) our opp pushes first hand and we're CERTAIN they have AK. Do we call with 22?
a) Random?
b) Weak?
c) Me?
d) Hellmuth?
Explanations aren't necessary but interesting when warranted. =)
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Posted Sun Mar 04, 2007 12:05 am GMT by suitedaces84
5a and 5b are really easy.
Posted Sun Mar 04, 2007 12:04 pm GMT by TheSalche
Eh here goes, since nobody else seems interested in taking some time to learn about poker and themselves (55 views and 1 reply ...)
1a. 70- 75 against random
b. 65 - 70 weak
c. 55 and above for supa
d. 50 for phil
reasoning: against the random we don't have much info, so i suggest being more conservative, against the weaker opponent we loosen up since we can probably still win as a 2-1 dog, against phil and supa im willing to take a coinflip or better since i can't outplay either of them HU
2. I'd decrease all my percentages by 5 - 10 percent, if opponent doubles up its even again so i'm willing to gamble a bit to go for the win
3. blinds are still small, so no need to be terribly loose
a. top 15
b. top 10
c, d top 20
4. i'd need to be 65 or better against random, phil and supa, 70 or better against weaksauce
5. call supa and phil, fold others
Posted Sun Mar 04, 2007 12:55 pm GMT by snoogins47
Hmm.
1)
A:Probably a little worse than 60/40 would be good against a random, assuming I'm as good as I think I am. Quicker structures obviously make the edge drop. Dun remember the exact Stars structure.
B:Closer to 2:1 here, depending on how bad I am.
C: I never have enough of an edge to call here, since I can outplay you so bad.
D: Depends on the structure and how pissed off he's been recently, but generally probably anything above 45 ish.
2) Probably not a whole lot different really but:
A: 55 ish?
B: 60/40 ish
C: Read above
D: I might go down to the low 40s here.
3) This is tricky, our 'general edge' is less important here, and it's almost impossible to tell what sort of push ranges people actually have. A random who's pushed like 12 times is way different than a random who hasn't pushed preflop yet, etc. Since you think I never state opinions, I'll refrain from stating an opinion.
4) This one's easier
A:55-60+
B:~65+
C:N/A
D:45+
5)
A:No
B:No
C:Probably
D:Yes sir.
Posted Sun Mar 04, 2007 3:13 pm GMT by supafrey
you never state your opinion
Posted Sun Mar 04, 2007 3:57 pm GMT by exit music
edit: er okay new answers 
1
a) 65% , I'm looking to have my opponent dominated or pair over paired
b) 70%
c) 60%
d) 55% (ie. K/x)
2
a)60%
b)65%
c) 60%
d) 50%
3
a) I'd call with any pair, A8+, KT+, 9T-JQo
b) any pair, A8+ KJ+, J10 and JQ
c) any pair, A8+ K9+ 89+
d) any pair, A8+ K9+ 89+, QT, J9, T8
4
a) 70%
b) 80%
c) 69%
d) 60%
5
a+b+c) No
d) yes
Posted Sun Mar 04, 2007 4:07 pm GMT by supafrey
heh reread the instructions, exit music. Only post hand ranges for that one question that asks it... for the first two and stuff just post a % you'd need to be favourite pre. Assume that hands are both shown, irrelevant, whatever, and now you just now what the chances are of you winning. What are your minimum numbers, etc.
Posted Sun Mar 04, 2007 9:43 pm GMT by jeffonline
1.
a. 60%
b. 33%
c. 66%
d. 75%
2.
a. 40%
b. 22%
c. 44%
d. 50%
3.
a. Q8o or better
b. Any split connectors or better.
c. 55 or better KXo or better
d. 77 or better A9o or Q9s or better.
4.
a. 50%
b. 35%
c. 66%
d. 75%
5.
a. Y
b. Y
c. N
d. N
I may be wrong some of the time and this coud prove it.
Posted Mon Mar 05, 2007 3:13 am GMT by TheSalche
jeff
i think you're missing some of the point, or your thinking is way different than mine ... when supa says a weak player, he doesn't necessarily mean (at least how i took it) that he moves in with weak hands, i think what his question is asking is how big of a fav/dog do you want to be when you go all-in preflop
having low numbers for the weak player is backwards thinking, we can outplay this person pre and post flop, so calling when we know we are a 2 - 1 dog is actually the worst possible thing to do
Posted Mon Mar 05, 2007 5:13 am GMT by jeffonline
Do I get any marks for setting the page out correctly?
Posted Fri Mar 09, 2007 3:35 am GMT by MrDarling
I think I am missing the point. For Q's 1 and 2 we assume we know villain hand?
I'd prefer in we concentrate on what do we have to hold to call in these situation?
Also, the buyin is very important. Especially the buyin / BR ratio. If I have 100Xbuyin I'll be more willing to gamble then if I only had 10Xbuyin ...
I'm not replying because I suck at theses situation, but I will keep an eye on this thread to see what people say.
Generally, when the blinds are low I will not call a push against most player without a big hand (AT+ , mid pocket pair) simply because i don't want to give them the chance to catch up. Guess its a leak.
Good idea. Hope to see some reasons behind the replies.
Danny
Posted Fri Mar 09, 2007 4:18 am GMT by tame_deuces
Regarding 5a&b, are they really so 'easy' as they seem?
Will the weak player play me more/will I have troubles finding other weak players to play or is that an unknown? If he will play me more I don't see no reason to not take any edge offered in pot, even if it is a 1-2% + pot odds from blinds. And as for the random, I'd suspect I could find other randoms to play quite easily.
A 52% edge in the time it takes to click a mousebutton could be better than a 60-70% edge which averages at about 2+ minutes to play out.
If someone can explain to me if/why this is irrelevant, then please do.
Posted Fri Mar 09, 2007 5:09 am GMT by supafrey
i'll try and post results/thoughts/ideas and explanations tomorrow when i sober up
Posted Sun Mar 11, 2007 11:22 am GMT by MrDarling
Guess its take longer then usual to some to sober up 
Had another situation in mind that I have a question about.
You playing a weaker player and he has a lead on you on the first few levels.
You look at AKo on the button and raise. He pushes.
Now judging from his game you are pretty sure he has a pair, he is not likely to do so with Ax and he is not bluffing.
Do you call?
Since the player is weaker, do we give him that very small edge (I believe any pair is leading pre) or do we wait and out play him later?
Posted Sun Mar 11, 2007 2:25 pm GMT by groton
1. You're HU and have made some small gains against your opponent lately. There hasn't been really that much play, but you've pulled out a small lead. Our opp goes all-in preflop and we're holding XY. Their chipstack is roughly 1k and ours is 2k.
a) 65
b)75
c) 50
d) 50
2. Same situation, same all in. Excusing any strange reasoning you may not ACTUALLY know what your opp has, but lets just play with hypothetical XY again. This time the chipstacks are 750 for him, and 2250 for us.
a) 60
b) 65
c) 45
d) 40
3. our opp goes all in for 500 chips, we've got 2500.
a) What range of hands do you call with (Notice this is a diff question than before... i want examples) vs a random opp?
b) Weak? 77 and up A10s and up AQos and up
c) Me? A3os and UP any PP
d) Hellmuth? A2os and up any PP
4. Our opp goes all in first hand.. What % fave would you need to be to call?
a) random
b) weak? 70/30
c) Me? 50/50
d) Hellmuth? 50/50
5) our opp pushes first hand and we're CERTAIN they have AK. Do we call with 22?
a) Random? no
b) Weak? no
c) Me? yes
d) Hellmuth? yes
Posted Sun Mar 11, 2007 6:01 pm GMT by snoogins47
| tame_deuces wrote: | | If someone can explain to me if/why this is irrelevant, then please do. |
It's not irrelevant, but I think the idea behind the post was to get people thinking about their edge and what that does to tournament equity (and possibly make fun of people who grossly screw up their estimates in these regards)
Course if that's not good enough, just pretend that you're only playing one SNG today, you've already convinced your wife to let you sit on the computer for X minutes (where X is the longest it could possibly take a SNG to play out) and that you are entirely indifferent, in all manners of happiness/contentment/etc. whether you are playing poker, or doing something else on the computer.
I have an open question to everybody who answered 4d (Opp goes all in first hand, opponent is Phil Hellmuth) with any number >50%...
And my question is...
Really?
Please, elaborate on that, like, a lot.
Posted Tue Mar 13, 2007 10:17 pm GMT by Jefecaminador
Why would you go all in on the first hand as less than a 50/50 favorite? Even against the great Phil Helmouth. At that point you might as well just not play.
Posted Tue Mar 13, 2007 10:47 pm GMT by snoogins47
| Jefecaminador wrote: | | Why would you go all in on the first hand as less than a 50/50 favorite? Even against the great Phil Helmouth. At that point you might as well just not play. |
I don't think, uh, "I'm gonna take my buy-in back and quit" is an option.
Posted Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:28 am GMT by supafrey
the elusive option Q.
Posted Thu Mar 22, 2007 8:25 am GMT by MrDarling
Thought we are going to get some insight and thought about this thread Supa.
| Jefecaminador wrote: | | Why would you go all in on the first hand as less than a 50/50 favorite? Even against the great Phil Helmouth. At that point you might as well just not play. |
because presumably he is at least 70%-30% to win any way...
Posted Thu Mar 22, 2007 9:38 am GMT by supafrey
ahhh i'm sorry i do a lot of drugs.
I'll do it.. er..
okay let me step outside for 5 min then i'll do it
geez.
i have 3000 words due for today that are already a day late =(
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