QsQd on Js7s3s board, villain shows As after pushing all-in |
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Posted Tue Mar 06, 2007 10:08 am GMT by VisualCSharp
I'll intersperse a couple of questions throughout.
The game is a 6-player .5/.10 micro NLHE cash game at my apartment with regular players. Villain and I both have around $20. Villian has been playing tight in recent sessions, usually showing down only what he thinks would be the winning hand. He is tricky however and is good at getting people to do what he wants them to do by talking, showing cards, etc. (think Jamie Gold).
My table image is tight. I haven't been playing many hands up until this point, and I've even commented about how dry I'm running. Villain has also been commenting about how his cards have sucked. We're both looking for some action.
I'm in early position and pick up QdQs in the big blind. Villain raises in late position to .70. I re-raise to 2.50, wanting him to define his hand right there. Surprisingly, he just calls. This definitely confuses me because I'm not sure why he would just cold-call a large raise, even from late position.
The flop comes Js7s3s. I check.
Question 1: Was a check a bad play here? At this point I'm afraid he's slow-playing aces because the call pre-flop has me confused. I am 90% sure if I bet he will raise anyway.
He pushes all-in immediately for well over the pot size. I spend the next 5 minutes trying to think about my outs vs certain plausible hands. After about 3 minutes he shows me an As. I can no longer count on my Qs giving me a flush. I reason he could already have the nut flush with AsKs and that would be why he called 2.50 preflop. Another likely hand I have him on is AsJx. He has to know that I would not raise to 2.50 without QQ-AA. In that case, only AA has him in trouble. I'm sure he's putting me on QQ or KK in which case my current odds are 50/50. The only plausible hand I really have beat is a bluff. I look at the pot size and determine it's not worth the potential risk that I am already drawing dead. I fold.
Question 2: Would you have folded here?
I learned after the hand that villain had AsJd.
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Posted Tue Mar 06, 2007 10:56 am GMT by UrAteUp
Question 1) Why check? You have to bet here to find out where you stand. I would have bet out a pot bet on him. Yes he might push but then I have to make a choice. My thinking would be would AA or KK push here? Wouldn't they want to get the most value from their hand as possible and just call a pot sized bet here? Most good players would.
Question 2) See question one. The answer should be the same. You have to think what hands would push here. AK, AQ, AJ, A10 and a pp. They would want to scare you off the pot. Where AA and KK would want to drag you along and get the most of your money. Based on this thinking...yes I most likely would make this call.
Posted Tue Mar 06, 2007 11:03 am GMT by VisualCSharp
As I've spent the past couple of days thinking about the hand I agree with your assessment. I think the way I played this hand is indicative of a recent trend toward weak-tight that I seem to be falling into.
I think my biggest mistake on the hand was not betting. By not betting I did not gain sufficient additional information about what hand he was holding. I had the advantage pre-flop with my huge raise from EP and then gave it away for almost no reason, just because I didn't flop the nuts.
My rationale on folding to his all-in was that the hands he likely held were at least 50/50 against mine, if not dominating me completely (made flush, KK or AA, AsJx). From past experience, his recent tight play and his perception of me I didn't think it wise to get my money in the middle, especially after seeing the As.
Posted Tue Mar 06, 2007 12:14 pm GMT by snoogins47
| VisualCSharp wrote: | | I think my biggest mistake on the hand was not betting. By not betting I did not gain sufficient additional information about what hand he was holding. I had the advantage pre-flop with my huge raise from EP and then gave it away for almost no reason, just because I didn't flop the nuts. |
To be fair, betting doesn't really give you much more information in this spot. Still probably right though. Makes calling his flop push an even easier decision, too ;P
After he shows the As, it's close and hard to tell: I like calling, though. Despite the bad (Best case scenario = ~55% winning chances, getting only 4:3 odds)... his play is much more indicative of hands that you're ahead of.
It seems that you peg him as at least somewhat reasonable. If that's accurate, he will pretty much never show you AsKs here. AsAx is your only worry, and it doesn't seem to be very likely. Funny part about these hands though, is that a small-ish variation in who our opponent is can make this go quite easily from a fairly easy call, to a situation where calling is god-awful. I think given the information though, we've got a call here.
Posted Wed Mar 07, 2007 12:21 am GMT by VisualCSharp
Thanks for the responses guys.
Another quick question. How much would I bet on the flop and why?
Posted Wed Mar 07, 2007 1:41 am GMT by supafrey
| UrAteUp wrote: | Question 1) Why check? You have to bet here to find out where you stand. I would have bet out a pot bet on him. Yes he might push but then I have to make a choice. My thinking would be would AA or KK push here? Wouldn't they want to get the most value from their hand as possible and just call a pot sized bet here? Most good players would.
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I'm pretty sure every part of this thinking is wrong. I'm not saying I don't bet, necessarily (i probably do) but all the reasoning here seems way off to me for some reason.
Posted Wed Mar 07, 2007 6:23 am GMT by TheSalche
supa is right, betting out of position doesn't give you much info, here it would tell you nothing since he'd probably push if OP bet anyways. id bet here to control the bet size in an attempt to get to a cheapish showdown (pretty deep here).
the problem with calling the push is that he's gotta have a hand you are a slight favorite WAY more than he has AA with the ace of spades. I'd probably call since the stakes are low, but consider folding here.
Posted Tue Mar 13, 2007 9:57 am GMT by VisualCSharp
That was pretty much my thinking. I know he likes to bet draws real hard, and especially after he showed me the As, I wasn't sure what hands I was beating straight up, except maybe the As with a non-spade king or queen. However I don't think he would go all-in with just the nut flush draw. He would probably bet 2/3 pot if he just had the nut flush draw. He's a good enough player to know he would be behind at that time. I could only put him on a made hand or a hand I was barely a favorite to (AsJd was one of them).
Posted Tue Mar 13, 2007 10:50 pm GMT by snoogins47
| VisualCSharp wrote: | | That was pretty much my thinking. I know he likes to bet draws real hard, and especially after he showed me the As, I wasn't sure what hands I was beating straight up, except maybe the As with a non-spade king or queen. However I don't think he would go all-in with just the nut flush draw. He would probably bet 2/3 pot if he just had the nut flush draw. He's a good enough player to know he would be behind at that time. I could only put him on a made hand or a hand I was barely a favorite to (AsJd was one of them). |
If he's good enough to know he's behind to your range, he's probably also good enough to know that you also can't call with most of it. Also, you're not that far ahead of any hand that has the As or Ks in it.
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