Two street semi-bluff. Good or bad? |
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Posted Mon Mar 12, 2007 8:01 pm GMT by NCoE
No reads and no distinct table image.
What are your thoughts on how hero plays this hand?
UTG: (55 bbs)
HERO: (227 bbs)
BUTTON:(67 bbs)
SB: (127 bbs)
BB: (205 bbs)
Hero 3  3 
Preflop:
UTG folds
Hero raises to 3 bbs
Button raises to 7 bbs
SB folds
BB folds
Hero calls for 4 bbs
Pot is 15.5 bbs
*** Flop(Board): *** : 4  5  6
Hero checks
Button bets 9 bbs
Hero raises to 20 bbs
Button calls for 11 bbs
Pot is 55.5 bbs
*** Turn(Board): *** : 4 5 6 Kn
Hero bets 40 bbs (Button is all in if he calls)
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Posted Mon Mar 12, 2007 8:31 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
No reads? Sorry, but without some kind of read or feel on your opponent, it looks like a complete waste to me. High risk moves like this demand solid, concrete reasoning behind them.
Posted Tue Mar 13, 2007 3:25 am GMT by NCoE
Well, there's still reasoning. His betting suggests a higher pocket pair or maybe to pretty face cards and against a pp over 7s I have 10 outs.
Which do you think is the biggest risk element?
That he folds a big pp here to seldom or that he got cute on me preflop and has a big made hand aldready? (Note that he's not very deep).
Also, how would you have wanted Hero to play?
Posted Fri Mar 16, 2007 3:08 pm GMT by NCoE
Shameless bump, $0.02 can't be that much to ask for?
Posted Fri Mar 16, 2007 5:26 pm GMT by MrDarling
what hand exactly are you trying to represnt that hit this flop so hard?
Also, what level is this. The lower the level, the harder it is to push ppl out of hands
Posted Sat Mar 17, 2007 4:05 am GMT by snoogins47
Yeah, level would be nice. Really it just comes down to how often he finds a fold with TT/JJ/QQ here. At low levels, the answer is "not very often." At higher levels, the answer is again "not very often," but possibly for different reasons.
The turn is fairly close... I really don't expect him to fold here hardly ever. Then again, he doesn't have to fold that often (probably 15-20%) to make the push +EV (which doesn't necessarily guarantee it's right) I still think as played the turn bet is probably good, but it's close and who knows and is one of those not-at-all-cool situations.
I don't really like the flop check-raise though... I much prefer just leading. He's probably just going to muck AK to a decent sized lead, and he'll probably put in a raise with a big pair. Similar information, similar result, less investment: both money wise, and commitment wise. Any reasonable bet + check-raise commits us to the pot, whether it's because he pushes and we have to call, or because he calls and the pot is so big on the turn that we have to at least try to pick it up. If he raises the flop, we can re-evaluate and see if it's worth it to try to suck out and go for stackage.
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