Poor decisions with J-10? |
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Posted Sun Mar 18, 2007 4:16 pm GMT by xGinNJuicex
Lost sleep over this one, I definitely take this game too seriously sometimes. Input greatly appreciated...
There are 18 of 70 left in a live tournament, the top 8 cash. The blinds are 300/600 and they will be going up next hand to 400/800(part of why I played it this way). I have 9500 in chips. I have the villian in this hand covered by about 1200.
I'm under the gun and pick up J  10 . There had been a lot of cheap flops at the table so I limped.
Everyone folds to the button, who is a solid player and has been caught stealing from the button once or twice, but generally plays good starting hands. He raises to 1800. Both blinds fold and I make the call. Pot is 4500.
Flop comes A 10  Q
I check and villian immediately bets 1800. Pot is 6300. I don't put him on KJ or two pair here, because I had seen him slowplay some big hands (he had been at my table the whole night). At this point I've got him on A-x, with his most likely kicker below a 10. If my read is good I've got 9 spades, 3 non-spade kings, and 2 10's for a total of 14 outs, plus the possibility of 3 J's if he doesn't hold a K or J. I'm getting 3.5 to 1 on my money, plus I feel I could bust him if I hit. Also, if I fold here, my M is left at around 6.5 with increased blinds right behind me.
I call the 1800. Pot is now 8100.
The turn is 7  .
I check, and villian pushes all-in for 4700. The pot is offering me almost 3:1 and I still feel my original read is good. If I fold I've got 5900 left and would need to push soon especially with the blinds behind me.
I call, and villian shows AJ offsuit.
The river is 3 and I'm basically dead.
I decided during this hand that I was playing to win and was willing to gamble a bit, but I'm not sure how good my logic here is. I had my stacksize in mind the whole time, except maybe when I limped preflop which I feel was the biggest mistake I made on this hand. I also feel like I was committed to this pot postflop considering my read and my outs, and given this, perhaps I should have pushed the flop or turn instead of passing the action. If I do so, do I get him off his AJ? How would you have played this differently, other than folding preflop?
Thoughts very appreciated.
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Posted Sun Mar 18, 2007 4:43 pm GMT by kingetje
i think check-raising all-in on the flop is better then just calling. his bet was fairly weak.. same ammount he bet before the flop. ya might get a fold from a hand like KJ or whatever and you got 2 cards to come instead of just 1 when you push it on the turn
Posted Sun Mar 18, 2007 4:48 pm GMT by Ensano
after you thought it out and wanted to play it you should've check/pushed... he just might throw away a med/low A... not to mention naked Q and 10 can't call...
Posted Sun Mar 18, 2007 9:45 pm GMT by xGinNJuicex
If I check/push then isn't he nearly comitted? He only had 4700 behind him and the blinds were going up next hand. If I was going to push perhaps I should've straight-pushed on the flop instead of checking or check/pushing. If I did that, wouldn't it be more likely he would lay down a middle ace, as opposed to the situation where he's already comitted a significant portion of his stack to the pot when he bet the flop?
Posted Sun Mar 18, 2007 9:56 pm GMT by shorn7
You are commited after that flop, with at least 12 outs to the nuts and probably 14 total wins. I CR all-in for sure to put him to the test here. He might lay it down and if he doesn't, I am not that big of a dog to win. In fact, I don't mind him calling at all...you are 48% to win anyway, so I think you add that to the potential fold equity you have, this is an easy push.
Posted Wed Mar 21, 2007 1:57 am GMT by MrDarling
First, with the blinds soon going up and a smallish M I don't limp. Especially not from UTG. And if I do limp, I'll muck it as soon as villain raise. Sure he can be stealing, but you still need a miracle flop unless you think you can resteal it.
Now you hit a miracle flop. (probably the best you could hope for unless you flopped 2 pairs or better) You actually tie to win unless he has 2 pairs or better.
If you called the PF raise, you couldn't be hoping for a better flop. So I agree with everyone that now is the time to push.
If it is low levels, you know he probably wont fold his A regardless of his kicker. So if you are going to chase you better put all the money in when you have odds to win.
Now if we talk odds, if you count your J as 1 out (he might have a K or a J himself) you just about have odds to call the flop.
However on the turn, he prices you out of calling so its a mistake.
This is way you want to put the money in on the flop, when you are at worse tie.
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