kk... help me out here... |
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Posted Thu Mar 29, 2007 7:25 pm GMT by Ensano
Hand #1.... villian 13/11/2/0
POKERSTARS GAME #9154237809: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/03/29 - 20:18:33 (ET)
Table 'Setebos III' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Rata del Rio ($99.35 in chips)
Seat 2: hongzhong ($17.40 in chips)
Seat 3: Pumuckel1 ($136.45 in chips)
Seat 4: inheritance ($100.30 in chips)
Seat 5: Ensano ($98.10 in chips)
Seat 7: admiral21 ($109.10 in chips)
Seat 8: WormAAs ($20 in chips)
Seat 9: PhillyFan32 ($101.35 in chips)
Ensano: posts small blind $0.50
admiral21: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ensano  
WormAAs: folds
PhillyFan32: raises $3 to $4
WormAAs leaves the table
Rata del Rio: folds
hongzhong: folds
Pumuckel1: folds
inheritance: folds
Ensano: calls $3.50
admiral21: folds
*** FLOP ***   
Ensano: bets $5
PhillyFan32: calls $5
*** TURN *** 
Ensano: bets $12
PhillyFan32: raises $12 to $24
Ensano: ?
Hand #2... villian 11/0/infinite/33
POKERSTARS GAME #9154262822: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/03/29 - 20:20:11 (ET)
Table 'Setebos III' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Rata del Rio ($99.35 in chips)
Seat 2: hongzhong ($17.40 in chips)
Seat 3: Pumuckel1 ($136.45 in chips)
Seat 4: inheritance ($100.30 in chips)
Seat 5: Ensano ($104.10 in chips)
Seat 7: admiral21 ($107.60 in chips)
Seat 9: PhillyFan32 ($117.25 in chips)
PhillyFan32: posts small blind $0.50
Rata del Rio: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ensano  
hongzhong: folds
Pumuckel1: folds
inheritance: folds
Ensano: raises $3 to $4
admiral21: folds
PhillyFan32: folds
Rata del Rio: calls $3
*** FLOP *** 
park10 joins the table at seat #8
Rata del Rio: checks
Ensano: bets $4
Rata del Rio: raises $12 to $16
Ensano: ?
Hand #3....
POKERSTARS GAME #9155384082: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/03/29 - 21:31:48 (ET)
Table 'Setebos III' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Rata del Rio ($100 in chips)
Seat 2: hongzhong ($16.10 in chips)
Seat 3: Pumuckel1 ($145.30 in chips)
Seat 4: inheritance ($128.55 in chips)
Seat 5: Ensano ($115.65 in chips)
Seat 6: battletoad2 ($93.90 in chips)
Seat 7: thisplay ($27.50 in chips)
Seat 8: park10 ($52.10 in chips)
Seat 9: PhillyFan32 ($110 in chips)
Ensano: posts small blind $0.50
battletoad2: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ensano
thisplay: folds
park10: folds
PhillyFan32: calls $1
thisplay leaves the table
Rata del Rio: folds
hongzhong: folds
Pumuckel1: folds
inheritance: folds
Ensano: calls $0.50
battletoad2: checks
*** FLOP ***   
Ensano: bets $1.80
battletoad2: folds
PhillyFan32: calls $1.80
*** TURN *** 
CAJUNMAN33 joins the table at seat #7
Ensano: bets $4
PhillyFan32: calls $4
*** RIVER *** 
Ensano: checks
PhillyFan32: bets $11
Ensano: ?
the river check was to enduce a bluff and I know it's at least an easy call... but is there value in raising?
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Posted Thu Mar 29, 2007 8:48 pm GMT by exit music
The first hand is interesting, I think at this point it's pretty obvious that you are behind and I am guessing that he has an overpair or KQ/AQ, in any case you are well behind, so it just becomes a pot-odds question.
4+4+1+5+5+12+24=$55 in the pot, $12 to call, you are getting about 4.5:1
if he's just got a hand like KK or AQ, you have 9 outs (4 9s, 2 Ts, 3 Js) so that's 4:1
You should call, unless he has displayed that he's got the ability to fold an overpair, in which case you probably have enough fold equity to push. You can't really fold on the turn to that kind of bet so I'd call and then fold the river unless you catch your draw... and hopefully he doesn't have QQ if you catch a 10 or J.
Second hand:
You are behind 88, TT+
You are ahead of A8, T8, 87 and AJ or some other semi-bluff
Unless I had a really good feeling that my opponent is itching to bluff, it will cost you about $40 to find out where you stand, I am pretty nitty sometimes, but I don't like getting felted with a middle-overpair so I probably just fold, although I could go either way depending on my mood, I think TT or JJ is most likely.
Posted Thu Mar 29, 2007 8:54 pm GMT by exit music
Hand 3:
I don't hate raising to about $30 on the river, although are you prepared to fold to a AI re-raise? By the way this dude played hand 1 I'm guessing he's a bit of a donkey so he might not raise the turn with a hand like 7-3 or Q-7, which means he might pay you off on the river. I'd raise, but I'm pretty greedy. He'll probably fold, but there is a small range of hands that he'll call with and a smaller range of hands that he'll raise with.
Posted Thu Mar 29, 2007 10:01 pm GMT by Ensano
| exit music wrote: | Hand 3:
I don't hate raising to about $30 on the river, although are you prepared to fold to a AI re-raise? By the way this dude played hand 1 I'm guessing he's a bit of a donkey so he might not raise the turn with a hand like 7-3 or Q-7, which means he might pay you off on the river. I'd raise, but I'm pretty greedy. He'll probably fold, but there is a small range of hands that he'll call with and a smaller range of hands that he'll raise with. |
now that i've had time to think this over I think it would be +EV to raise...
If I don't raise there's a 0% chance of getting a weaker hand to put more money in... even a min raise... any raise would be better than just calling... although what would I do if he 3bet?... this flop could've connected very well to a hand that MP would limp in with...
Posted Thu Mar 29, 2007 10:30 pm GMT by exit music
After thinking some more about hand #2 I'd probably call on the flop and see how he acts on the turn, my goal would be to get a really cheep showdown, but again it depends on your opponent - is he aggressive (will bet every street) or is he more passive?
Hand #3, I feel sick on the river if he 3bets, if I'm on tilt whatsoever I'd call him in a second, if I had a really good read I might fold
Now some of the smart players give their opinions, I'm usually wrong
Posted Fri Mar 30, 2007 2:13 am GMT by Yozman
hand 1 i fold pre flop, j 10 off is a terrible hand up against a raise, i also fold the turn, he has a bigger pair than u at worst.
hand 2 u are beat, fold. u are facng trips or an overpair
Posted Fri Mar 30, 2007 8:22 am GMT by Ensano
| Yozman wrote: | hand 1 i fold pre flop, j 10 off is a terrible hand up against a raise, i also fold the turn, he has a bigger pair than u at worst.
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and what hands are you going to defend your blind with?
Posted Fri Mar 30, 2007 10:57 am GMT by MrDarling
| Ensano wrote: | | Yozman wrote: | hand 1 i fold pre flop, j 10 off is a terrible hand up against a raise, i also fold the turn, he has a bigger pair than u at worst.
|
and what hands are you going to defend your blind with? |
From an UTG+1 raise? A much stronger hand.
Take my blinds, please!
Posted Fri Mar 30, 2007 11:48 am GMT by golddog
Caveat: not a NL cash game player. That said,
What Yozman and Ensano said about hand 1.
Congratulations (villain), your putting $4 at risk got you $1.50.
Now, if they were suited, maybe a loose pre-flop call just to see what happens.
Hand 2...TT/JJ? He might be putting you on a missed AQ/AK too. I think this is a call?
Hand 3...The only reason I can think to not raise is if he flopped a flush, right? I suppose fives or sizes full isn't out of the question without a pre-flop raise. This is a spot I always have trouble with; on the one hand, a re-raise might scare off a weak flush, I suppose. On the other, flat-calling is the safe move. Guess you go with a read?
Posted Sat Mar 31, 2007 7:38 pm GMT by exit music
| golddog wrote: |
Hand 3...The only reason I can think to not raise is if he flopped a flush, right? |
He's gotta be really good at poker to have flopped a flush on hand #3
Posted Sat Mar 31, 2007 10:17 pm GMT by snoogins47
Hand 1 quickly becomes a preflop call if your opponent really sucks or if you're superman.
I fold the turn too. 4.5 to 1 is nice, except that we're very often only drawing to 4 outs here. The situation just isn't all that good, since we're going to lose a lot when we hit improve to second best, and often can't win a whole ton when we improve to a winner, especially OOP. I fold, but I suggest whining about a "world-class laydown" before you do so.
Hand 2: I think OOP here without a detailed read it's probably a fold, though it's hard to tell... against some players it may be right to throw a raise in here, or call down, etc. etc... but it's tricky. Assuming my interpretation of the PT numbers you give is right (usually I see people using 3 numbers, so I'm not positive) if his VPIP is 11, he probably isn't calling from the blind with many hands that contain a single 8. Even against players with the capability of doing this on a bluff, the reverse implied odds blow. Laggier folks, and you gotta get more involved.
Hand 3: I think raising is probably right here. Joe Average doesn't fold any 7 here, and some Joe Averages will call with a hand like JT. I'm not sure though that many Joe Averages will ever 3bet here with a hand worse than ours. If that's the case, that helps us considerably heh.
| Quote: | | If I don't raise there's a 0% chance of getting a weaker hand to put more money in... even a min raise... any raise would be better than just calling... |
Be careful. This is not necessarily true. Mostly since
| Quote: | | although what would I do if he 3bet? |
Along with "What will he call with?"/quote
Posted Sun Apr 01, 2007 8:19 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Hand 1: Not sure I like "defending my blind" here. To tell you the truth, as stacks get deeper, defending your blinds is less and less important, and JTo is a terrible hand to play OOP heads-up against a preflop raiser, simply because he often has you crushed, and many flops that help you will help him (and often help him more). That said, I like the fact that you led the flop, because that prevents him from dictating the action. On the turn, this is like the easiest fold in the world, not only because of the reverse implied odds along with being out of position, but also because I can't really think of any hands we're beating (unless he's bluffing, and again, it's going to be damn costly to find out).
Hand 2: Very tough spot, very player dependent. Since you're in position, you could call and let a card come off, but it will be hard to call if he fires another big shell on the turn, especially if it's a scary card like an A or K. The problem is, he could be making this move with 33, 55-77, an 8, a better overpair, or a set (not many draws on that board, especially with his likely range of hands). The size of his raise may be an attempt to stop you from getting a cheap turn if he has a hand like A8 or 77, or it could be a good pot-manipulation bet if he has a strong hand. Most of the time when I face serious resistance with one pair against an unknown player, I give him the benefit of the doubt and fold, especially if I have a weak overpair on a pretty dry board, like you have.
Hand 3: There is definite value in raising; I think a big raise is usually going to be your best bet. Only one of three things can happen:
1. He doesn't have that strong a hand, in which case almost any raise will probably induce him to fold.
2. He has a strong hand that is weaker than yours and you will win a lot of money.
3. Or, he has a full house and you are supposed to lose a lot of money here.
In any case, I think you're leaving a lot of money on the table by not raising. You probably induced him to bluff with a missed draw, but he could easily be betting a dry 7 (why wouldn't we have heard from him earlier if he flopped two pair or a set on that scary board?), so drop the hammer and raise him to like $30-$35.
Posted Mon Apr 02, 2007 1:39 am GMT by TheSalche
Agree with a lot of whats been said.
Hand 1: No reason to call from the blinds, you're not even in the BB here. And I'd much rather defend my blind with a hand that has better implied odds like a 76 ... JT can get you in trouble, where as lower connectors are easier to throw away post-flop.
Hand 2: Like DC said you can call and see what the turn brings, villain could c/r with air, but I think a monster is more likely. I mean all you really beat is air and A8. Three-betting the flop here is spewing chips.
Hand 3: Raise it up, fold to a 3bet
Posted Mon Apr 02, 2007 2:45 am GMT by Ensano
here's how it went... hand #2 still needs more help though...
Hand #1
POKERSTARS GAME #9154237809: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/03/29 - 20:18:33 (ET)
Table 'Setebos III' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Rata del Rio ($99.35 in chips)
Seat 2: hongzhong ($17.40 in chips)
Seat 3: Pumuckel1 ($136.45 in chips)
Seat 4: inheritance ($100.30 in chips)
Seat 5: Ensano ($98.10 in chips)
Seat 7: admiral21 ($109.10 in chips)
Seat 8: WormAAs ($20 in chips)
Seat 9: PhillyFan32 ($101.35 in chips)
Ensano: posts small blind $0.50
admiral21: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ensano
WormAAs: folds
PhillyFan32: raises $3 to $4
WormAAs leaves the table
Rata del Rio: folds
hongzhong: folds
Pumuckel1: folds
inheritance: folds
Ensano: calls $3.50
admiral21: folds
*** FLOP ***
Ensano: bets $5
PhillyFan32: calls $5
*** TURN ***
Ensano: bets $12
PhillyFan32: raises $12 to $24
Ensano: folds
PhillyFan32 collected $40.90 from pot
PhillyFan32: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $43 | Rake $2.10
Board
Seat 1: Rata del Rio folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: hongzhong folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Pumuckel1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: inheritance (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Ensano (small blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 7: admiral21 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: WormAAs folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: PhillyFan32 collected ($40.90)
Hand #2...
POKERSTARS GAME #9154262822: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/03/29 - 20:20:11 (ET)
Table 'Setebos III' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Rata del Rio ($99.35 in chips)
Seat 2: hongzhong ($17.40 in chips)
Seat 3: Pumuckel1 ($136.45 in chips)
Seat 4: inheritance ($100.30 in chips)
Seat 5: Ensano ($104.10 in chips)
Seat 7: admiral21 ($107.60 in chips)
Seat 9: PhillyFan32 ($117.25 in chips)
PhillyFan32: posts small blind $0.50
Rata del Rio: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ensano
hongzhong: folds
Pumuckel1: folds
inheritance: folds
Ensano: raises $3 to $4
admiral21: folds
PhillyFan32: folds
Rata del Rio: calls $3
*** FLOP ***
park10 joins the table at seat #8
Rata del Rio: checks
Ensano: bets $4
Rata del Rio: raises $12 to $16
Ensano: calls $12
*** TURN *** 
Rata del Rio: bets $30
Ensano: ?
Hand #3...
POKERSTARS GAME #9155384082: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/03/29 - 21:31:48 (ET)
Table 'Setebos III' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Rata del Rio ($100 in chips)
Seat 2: hongzhong ($16.10 in chips)
Seat 3: Pumuckel1 ($145.30 in chips)
Seat 4: inheritance ($128.55 in chips)
Seat 5: Ensano ($115.65 in chips)
Seat 6: battletoad2 ($93.90 in chips)
Seat 7: thisplay ($27.50 in chips)
Seat 8: park10 ($52.10 in chips)
Seat 9: PhillyFan32 ($110 in chips)
Ensano: posts small blind $0.50
battletoad2: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ensano
thisplay: folds
park10: folds
PhillyFan32: calls $1
thisplay leaves the table
Rata del Rio: folds
hongzhong: folds
Pumuckel1: folds
inheritance: folds
Ensano: calls $0.50
battletoad2: checks
*** FLOP ***
Ensano: bets $1.80
battletoad2: folds
PhillyFan32: calls $1.80
*** TURN ***
CAJUNMAN33 joins the table at seat #7
Ensano: bets $4
PhillyFan32: calls $4
*** RIVER ***
Ensano: checks
PhillyFan32: bets $11
Ensano: calls $11
*** SHOW DOWN ***
PhillyFan32: shows   (a pair of Sevens)
Ensano: shows (a straight, Six to Ten)
Ensano collected $34.85 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $36.60 | Rake $1.75
Board
Seat 1: Rata del Rio folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: hongzhong folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Pumuckel1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: inheritance (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Ensano (small blind) showed and won ($34.85) with a straight, Six to Ten
Seat 6: battletoad2 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 7: thisplay folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: park10 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: PhillyFan32 showed and lost with a pair of Sevens
Posted Mon Apr 02, 2007 12:16 pm GMT by TheSalche
Helping to prove our points here ...
for hand 2, you have to fold now, flop call is fine like i said before, but i don't think villain is bluffing here a lot
hand 3 raising for value is nice here, but the other added bonus of raising and getting trash hands to fold is that you leave the other opponents second guessing what you had in your hand.
Posted Mon Apr 02, 2007 2:39 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Hand 2 is such an easy fold on the turn.
Posted Mon Apr 02, 2007 3:22 pm GMT by Ensano
POKERSTARS GAME #9154262822: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/03/29 - 20:20:11 (ET)
Table 'Setebos III' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Rata del Rio ($99.35 in chips)
Seat 2: hongzhong ($17.40 in chips)
Seat 3: Pumuckel1 ($136.45 in chips)
Seat 4: inheritance ($100.30 in chips)
Seat 5: Ensano ($104.10 in chips)
Seat 7: admiral21 ($107.60 in chips)
Seat 9: PhillyFan32 ($117.25 in chips)
PhillyFan32: posts small blind $0.50
Rata del Rio: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ensano
hongzhong: folds
Pumuckel1: folds
inheritance: folds
Ensano: raises $3 to $4
admiral21: folds
PhillyFan32: folds
Rata del Rio: calls $3
*** FLOP ***
park10 joins the table at seat #8
Rata del Rio: checks
Ensano: bets $4
Rata del Rio: raises $12 to $16
Ensano: calls $12
*** TURN ***
Rata del Rio: bets $30
Ensano: folds
Rata del Rio collected $38.50 from pot
Rata del Rio: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $40.50 | Rake $2
Board
Seat 1: Rata del Rio (big blind) collected ($38.50)
Seat 2: hongzhong folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Pumuckel1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: inheritance folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Ensano folded on the Turn
Seat 7: admiral21 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: PhillyFan32 (small blind) folded before Flop
yeah it was a pretty easy fold although this happened literally 2nd hand after hand #1 so it is possible the villian here was trying to exploit my tendency to fold off the c/r... but still i agree it is a fold...
Hand #4....
POKERSTARS GAME #9155030603: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/03/29 - 21:09:32 (ET)
Table 'Setebos III' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Rata del Rio ($101.35 in chips)
Seat 2: hongzhong ($19.60 in chips)
Seat 3: Pumuckel1 ($154.90 in chips)
Seat 4: inheritance ($98.35 in chips)
Seat 5: Ensano ($95.35 in chips)
Seat 6: battletoad2 ($97.90 in chips)
Seat 8: park10 ($77.35 in chips)
Seat 9: PhillyFan32 ($108 in chips)
Ensano: posts small blind $0.50
battletoad2: posts big blind $1
thisplay: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ensano 
park10: folds
PhillyFan32: raises $2 to $3
Rata del Rio: folds
hongzhong: folds
Pumuckel1: folds
inheritance: folds
Ensano: calls $2.50
battletoad2: folds
*** FLOP ***   
Ensano: ?
Posted Mon Apr 02, 2007 3:32 pm GMT by exit music
Hand 4:
You can either check-raise or bet out. If your opponent has any brains, he will lead-out on the flop if you check to him, but he will probably fold to any raise.
If you bet out, you can either make a big bet or a small bet. A smaller bet might entice him to re-raise, but he also might just call you and see what happens on the turn which will leave you in a sticky spot - if you bet out twice he'll probably figure you for an ace.
I would make a roughly pot sized bet, maybe even pot+$2 or something. I'd plan on checking on the turn and make a 1/2 pot bet on the river. If he just open folds on the flop I'm not going to lose much sleep at night.
Posted Mon Apr 02, 2007 4:22 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Hand 4: Check to him, and if he bets, delay for like 10 seconds and then just call. Check the turn, hope he bets, and call. Then lead the pot quickly at the river no matter what falls, I'd say about half the pot. Pretty much no matter what you do, your opponent has to have some kind of hand for you to make any money here, so I say play it the most deceptive way possible and let him do all the betting, because you've crippled the deck and any bet from you is likely to send him running. Try to make it look like you have a mid pair and you aren't buying that he has a strong hand.
Posted Mon Apr 02, 2007 4:25 pm GMT by Ensano
POKERSTARS GAME #9155030603: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/03/29 - 21:09:32 (ET)
Table 'Setebos III' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Rata del Rio ($101.35 in chips)
Seat 2: hongzhong ($19.60 in chips)
Seat 3: Pumuckel1 ($154.90 in chips)
Seat 4: inheritance ($98.35 in chips)
Seat 5: Ensano ($95.35 in chips)
Seat 6: battletoad2 ($97.90 in chips)
Seat 8: park10 ($77.35 in chips)
Seat 9: PhillyFan32 ($108 in chips)
Ensano: posts small blind $0.50
battletoad2: posts big blind $1
thisplay: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ensano
park10: folds
PhillyFan32: raises $2 to $3
Rata del Rio: folds
hongzhong: folds
Pumuckel1: folds
inheritance: folds
Ensano: calls $2.50
battletoad2: folds
*** FLOP ***
Ensano: checks
PhillyFan32: bets $2
Ensano: calls $2
*** TURN *** 
Ensano: checks
PhillyFan32: bets $3
Ensano: calls $3
*** RIVER *** 
Ensano: bets $5
PhillyFan32: calls $5
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Ensano: shows (four of a kind, Aces)
PhillyFan32: mucks hand
Ensano collected $25.70 from pot
PhillyFan32 said, "nh"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $27 | Rake $1.30
Board
Seat 1: Rata del Rio folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: hongzhong folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Pumuckel1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: inheritance (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Ensano (small blind) showed and won ($25.70) with four of a kind, Aces
Seat 6: battletoad2 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: park10 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: PhillyFan32 mucked
just felt I played it weak... with how agressive this villian is I was thinking maybe I should've bet out and hope he raises me... a c/c c/r would scream A...
Posted Wed Apr 04, 2007 12:51 am GMT by snoogins47
I think in hand 4, check-call-check-call-bet is almost undoubtedly the best line. Interesting side note: even with other strange lines that might work somewhat, the chance of me betting the turn here is probably very close to 0%.
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