Big draw... call half my stack? |
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Posted Tue Apr 03, 2007 1:09 am GMT by xGinNJuicex
2900 in my stack, blinds 20/40. In the BB I raise to 130 with A  K and get one mid position caller who had limped.
Pot is 400.
Flop: 4 6 9 
I bet 275. MP moves all in for 1455.
?????
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Posted Tue Apr 03, 2007 1:21 am GMT by exit music
Call
Posted Tue Apr 03, 2007 2:05 am GMT by Phil14312
Posted Tue Apr 03, 2007 4:14 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Easy easy call.
Posted Tue Apr 03, 2007 10:21 am GMT by xGinNJuicex
thought so. thanks.
Posted Tue Apr 03, 2007 12:13 pm GMT by MrDarling
aren't we way behind of a set?
Without reads, if its low level its probably a call. but not an easy one.
you are probably a head of TPGK (though are reversely dominated by TPTK)
Posted Tue Apr 03, 2007 12:16 pm GMT by sixsixtie
easy call
Posted Tue Apr 03, 2007 12:56 pm GMT by xGinNJuicex
| MrDarling wrote: | aren't we way behind of a set?
Without reads, if its low level its probably a call. but not an easy one.
you are probably a head of TPGK (though are reversely dominated by TPTK) |
I had put him on a mid pair, with a set as a possibility. He didn't raise PF so it was tougher to put him on an overpair (10s or higher). If he has a set I'm not sure he would have made such a large raise, unless he knew I was on a big draw and wanted me off the hand, or he felt he would be priced in for his entire stack anyway if he raises any amount at all.
Posted Tue Apr 03, 2007 2:16 pm GMT by snoogins47
| MrDarling wrote: | aren't we way behind of a set?
Without reads, if its low level its probably a call. but not an easy one.
you are probably a head of TPGK (though are reversely dominated by TPTK) |
Sets are rare, and that's our worst case scenario... we're about what, 10% shy of our break even point?
We're well beyond 10% over our break-even point against almost every other hand. We've got every drawing hand/bluff pretty well smoked. Easy easy call at any level.
Posted Tue Apr 03, 2007 8:30 pm GMT by jeffonline
Is it that easy, villain is obviously protecting a hand and has put out a bet to price out the flush draw, this is how it looks to me.
We are only getting 1.8 X time our money, we have no implied odds, as villain is all-in.
We are well behind to trips, behind to TPGK so an A or K may improve his hand not ours, we need the flush to confirm our win 13 outs, if the board pairs and gives him a boat we are in trouble so our outs could be reduced by 4 giving us only 9 outs being about 1.8 chances of hitting on the turn & river. So we are looking at a worst-case scenario 50-50.
Posted Tue Apr 03, 2007 10:43 pm GMT by MJJ
ignoring the set or 2 pair...
15 outs w/ 2 streets to play = 60% to hit (by 'easy method')
9 for flush + 6 more for A's or K's
EASY CALL
If we assume 2 pr, 9 outs for flush (36%) + runner-runner for set/2pr = marginal call
Gotta call this. If you don't you are essentially playing AK (sooooted) like it's the same as 45 (soooted.)
Posted Tue Apr 03, 2007 10:55 pm GMT by supafrey
| jeffonline wrote: | Is it that easy, villain is obviously protecting a hand and has put out a bet to price out the flush draw, this is how it looks to me.
We are only getting 1.8 X time our money, we have no implied odds, as villain is all-in.
We are well behind to trips, behind to TPGK so an A or K may improve his hand not ours, we need the flush to confirm our win 13 outs, if the board pairs and gives him a boat we are in trouble so our outs could be reduced by 4 giving us only 9 outs being about 1.8 chances of hitting on the turn & river. So we are looking at a worst-case scenario 50-50. |
I know it may look like a mediocre spot at first, but that's pretty much the beauty of NL poker. If you give your opponents any kind of "normal" range this is a fairly easy call, though. Math-type programs prove that pretty easy.
Posted Wed Apr 04, 2007 12:07 pm GMT by MrDarling
Like I said, usually without reads, this is probably a call. But far from an easy one.
First, I presume this is a tournament. In cash game, this is much easier call.
Second, what hands can we put villain on? This is why the level of the game is so important. Actually, I think this will be a easier call the HIGHER the level.
You do not expect A9, or A6 to call a preflop raise in higher levels, and even if they do, they will not normally push this flop. Seeing there are many hands they are behind of.
So in higher levels its a set as often as it is a big draw (like 35s or 78s)
In low levels this could be a lot of hands that does crush us : A9, A6, A4 are there, T's are there but I can't see any other over pair not re-raising PF. 9's , 6's and 4's are there for sure. And sure, a lower flush can also be there. But then the level should be really low for this kind of play. So if we can reduce villain hand , I think that more then 50% of his range crush us...
Thoughts?
Danny
Posted Wed Apr 04, 2007 12:20 pm GMT by snoogins47
Name 4 hands that 'crush' us.
Special note: "Crush" has to make some sort of sense.
Perhaps a more useful test: Out of the set of all possible hands, name the hands that, according to pure chip EV, we should fold if he shows them to us.
Posted Wed Apr 04, 2007 1:05 pm GMT by MrDarling
Ok, my mistake. After some checking hands like 2 pairs or A9 do not crush us. Its a 50-50 situation.
So the only hands we are really behind a lot is a set.
So I guess that makes this an easy call. For some reason I though we are waay more behind then what we really are.
So, are we always calling all our stack with Nut flush draw against TPTK?
Posted Wed Apr 04, 2007 1:14 pm GMT by MJJ
| MrDarling wrote: |
So, are we always calling all our stack with Nut flush draw against TPTK? |
With A and K as overcards, yes.
That gives us at least 12 outs (9 for fl and 3 K's, plus the 3 A's if the board pairs again)
In the example that started this thread, the guy could be on a str8 draw, a fl draw, a total bluff, or have something like 7 9 for top pair, flush draw, and backdoor str8 draw
*and it is 1/2 our stack (all of HIS stack) not that it matters much
Posted Wed Apr 04, 2007 3:17 pm GMT by xGinNJuicex
To clarify, it was a $20 SNG on Bodog. 3rd level with 8 players left I believe.
Posted Wed Apr 04, 2007 3:48 pm GMT by efram
Seems like the general consensus is, its always a call.
but if this is the first hand in the WSOP main event is it still an EEEASY call?
Risk our 10K $ tourney buy-in on a draw, albeit a very strong draw?
Do stakes change it in anyway?
Levels?
If we're on the bubble of a big payout, say again, WSOP and are 3rd in chips but are covered by villian, still call?
Im curious what scenarios might make this not so easy, if any of you care to expound on that.
Posted Wed Apr 04, 2007 3:55 pm GMT by MJJ
OK, there are situations that I might not call- 1 from the $ in a big tourney jumps to mind.
This discussion has been done on this forum a few times...
Posted Wed Apr 04, 2007 4:02 pm GMT by efram
I know it has, just wanted to touch on it again re: a different set of cards. I think its important to realize decisions are often very situational.
And I was curious where some more experienced THPrs might draw the line. The big discussion we had was re: AA all in preflop in ME of WSOP.
This would be different in that we have a lot of outs and stand to double up if covered.
Im curious whose willing to gamble in this spot and in what situation?
Posted Wed Apr 04, 2007 4:05 pm GMT by MJJ
| efram wrote: | I know it has, just wanted to make touch it again.
I think its important to realize decisions are often very situational. |
I agree, but in ALMOST any situation I will call this (1/2 my stack, nut flush draw, 2 overs)
**The above post was edited from what I quoted to what it says now while I was typing my answer...
Posted Wed Apr 04, 2007 6:25 pm GMT by jeffonline
| MrDarling wrote: |
So, are we always calling all our stack with Nut flush draw against TPTK? |
Without some implied odds I don’t think this is an auto call.
Another way to look at it, we agree that we are behind at this point, we have no implied odd because villain is all in, we need to hit to win, At best 15 outs being 9harts 3k 3a. Only 1.8/1 on our money and we are only going hit 1out of 3 times at best but we have two chances of that on the turn and river. This is a gamble and not a cert. This is the situation you hope for when you’re the villain and someone is going to draw to a hand. These are the call that make or break you.
Posted Wed Apr 04, 2007 6:37 pm GMT by snoogins47
If you're villain in the OP's hand, you almost always want AKh to fold.
Posted Wed Apr 04, 2007 6:50 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| jeffonline wrote: | | Only 1.8/1 on our money and we are only going hit 1out of 3 times at best |
| PokerStove wrote: | Board: 4h 6h 9s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.115% 40.12% 00.00% 30977 0.00 { AhKh }
Hand 1: 59.885% 59.88% 00.00% 46243 0.00 { 99+, 66, 44, A9s, K9s, 96s, 94s, 64s, A9o, K9o, 96o, 94o, 64o } |
So against that range, which I think is more than reasonable, we're only a 60/40 dog which makes folding getting 1.8:1 pretty wrong. Throw in the flush draws and straight draws that we're beating already, and it's even more incorrect.
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