Harrington on Holdem, the workbook, problem 7. |
|
Posted Wed Apr 11, 2007 5:02 pm GMT by jimmer
I'm struggling to understand the decision on the turn and the reasons why.
It's the third round of the 2005 WSOP. There's 10 players sat at the table, the chip stacks of the players (that are involved in the hand) are;
Player B $14,000
Greg Raymer $15,000
Player H $14,000.
The blinds are $100/$200. Player A in early position calls, GR is in middle position and gets dealt J  9  and calls. Player H on the button raises to $700. Player B folds, Greg calls. The flop is J  9 3  . GR checks. The button bets $1000, GR raises to $3000. The button calls. The pot is now $7,900. The turn is 9 .
Now the options for the question are
A-check, B-bet $4000, C-go all-in.
Dan Harringtons answer is A-check. However I don't understand why?
I look at the hand this way; Firstly, the button raises a nice amount preflop. This indicates to me he has a hand and he wants action. GR calls. GR then check-raises the flop. The button calls. I am looking at this hand and thinking the button has a good hand and looking to suck GR in. His play suggests he's not going away. Then GR hits a full house on the turn and checks.
I just don't think this maximises the pot. If GR bets say $3,000-$4,000, I think it'll probably be called, if not re-raised. The other thing is this. From the buttons point of view, he's just been check-raised. Therefore he'll be suspisious of betting on the turn, just in case he gets sucked in even more, inless he has the nuts, he's gonna check this hand. If GR bets, the button may fold, but he would check the hand down anyway, so a bet seems a balanced play
Dan Harrington reads it differently. He suggests the button's play suggests he's holding AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK or AQ. If this is the case, GR's check will look like he tried to bluff the flop, but failed. Therefore the button could win by betting the turn.
How do you read this?
What would you do on the flop?
Did you know that participating in a poker forum can help you improve your own game? Be it by sharing experiences or simply asking for help, participation in a forum helps you focus and keep 'on topic' which will help you improve your game. You can learn from other players feedback and from their experiences. Why the THP poker forums? We offer one of the best managed texas holdem poker forums available, and the community within is far more friendly than those typicaly found on other sites. We've made a 'lurkers edition' of the poker forum available here on Holdem Poker Online, but we encourage all visitors to register and join in on the conversations on TexasHoldem-Poker.com
Posted Wed Apr 11, 2007 5:23 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Well Dan's way of playing is one possible way of playing this hand, but I too entered a different answer when I was going through this hand.
Dan's method has one good advantage over betting, though. Even if our opponent checks behind on the turn, if we make a reasonable bet on the river he will have to call with almost any hand that has showdown value, whereas if we bet the turn, we might not get another dollar. Also, as Dan said, our opponent might interpret Greg's (a LAG-type player's) check as a failed bluff attempt and he just may bet 4th street, but most opponents aren't going to make that mistake, even against a loose player (especially against a loose player of Greg's reputation). Dan's explanation along with his river idea of pushing makes the check a little more sensible, but...
I really prefer betting, though. Our opponent says he has a hand, so I want to try and make him go broke, not win a few more dollars; that goes for the early stages of almost any tournament. By checking the turn, we have virtually no chance at his whole stack unless he bets big on the turn, which is unlikely. I'd personally make a bet that looks probing, about 3000, but it actually designed to be followed up with a big river bet that gives him good value and might look like a move from us.
Posted Wed Apr 11, 2007 6:31 pm GMT by exit music
One of the big reasons to check instead of bet is because - unlike with a set - your hand is a lock. Don't go check-raise/check-whatever with a set, but I guess you can do it with a full house. I dunno, I would have bet anyways, more than half of danny-boy's range is a hand that wont be folding, so why let him pick how much the turn is going to cost. No way he'll call 2 check-raises with just an overpair.. mmmhmhm?
Posted Wed Apr 11, 2007 8:15 pm GMT by snoogins47
I like checking too, because I do think he'll bet the turn pretty often and even if he doesn't, as Diamond said, if it goes c/r/call, turn check/check, river 6k bet, Raymer's hand range is sufficiently wide to get a call from just about anything.
The important thing to remember here is that check-raising the preflop raiser on a J high board pretty much equals "I might have a pair, or a monster, or I decided to randomly do this which I do frequently."
And also as Harrington mentions: what do you put the button on? He's usually got a piece of this flop/an overpair or something here, given that he fired and then called the check-raise here. Most of those hands don't really like giving a free river, even if they're not massively confident in their hand. Plus most turn bets will pretty well commit villain to the pot.
| Quote: | | No way he'll call 2 check-raises with just an overpair.. mmmhmhm? |
A reasonable bet of say 1/2 pot or more is going to be roughly 1/2 villain's remaining stack or more, and he's gonna be gettin huge odds on a check-raise or on a river bet after that. So I'm not too sure about that.
Posted Thu Apr 12, 2007 1:48 am GMT by jeffonline
I ponder the thought that by giving a free card may help player H catch up, even if player H has AA there are only 2 cards that can heart us. If he’s holding AK then either an A or K on the river will improve his hand, It also makes it appear that the 9 did nothing for our hand, trying to create a false sense of security perhaps.
Posted Thu Apr 12, 2007 2:11 am GMT by MrDarling
Nice discussion , I need to get me those books asap.
BTW, what do we think about the flop call?
Posted Thu Apr 12, 2007 3:29 am GMT by jimmer
| MrDarling wrote: | | BTW, what do we think about the flop call? |
IMO, Both should of been folded. Even from a lose players point of view, he's in middle position and has already seen a call from early.
I think this is very weak play.
Having said that, who am i to argue! As dan harrington suggests, you can afford to play these hands if your good post-flop. We obviously know Greg is.
Posted Thu Apr 12, 2007 8:42 am GMT by jimmer
Ok, theres something else I didn't consider. (which has already been touched upon)
GR is known to be loose and aggressive. I'm guessing the button knows this.
If this is the case, from the buttons point of view, GR check-raise was a pot steeling attempt, which failed. This would be confirmed even more when he checks the turn. Therefore the button may feel he has an edge and bet. If this is the case, GR check would be the right play.
However, for a LAG player, does a check just look like a trap? I'm still thinking yes and the button would just check aswell.
Considering all the factors, I still think bet on the turn would be more profitable than a check.
However, having said that, the following statement has really struck a nerve with me. I think it sums up the hand well. Nice one diamond.
| xDiamond_CutteRx wrote: | | Even if our opponent checks behind on the turn, if we make a reasonable bet on the river he will have to call with almost any hand that has showdown value, |
The key words are "showdown value". Even if they both check the turn, the buttons hand is probably good enough to call a reasonable bet on the river.
mmm, before this discussion, i was 90% sure a bet was the right play, now reading these comments I'm only 75% sure.
I'll keep thinking.
Posted Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:55 am GMT by General Sal
Yeah, this hand was kind of interesting, after reading it.
I'm still thinking about what to write as I type...
the check raise really is the scary thing. Put yourself in the opponent's shoes. You know you have pocket Kings. You raised preflop, got a caller. You get this Jack nine flop. Checked to you, then you bet, and fossilman raises!
You play this hand conservatively (because this is who the player is already established as.) If it's checked back to me again, in this spot I'd be a little cautious about betting. (Although, I think the real me might bet, though I'd be really worried about that second check-raise.)
I guess the point of that check really is to show fear. You get the other player to somehow think that his hand is still good. As Diamond put, you can bet a reasonable amount on the river, and get paid on the full house.
You bet on the turn after a check-raise on the flop, then you really are just telling him to fold his hand. No more money goes in the pot.
Hey, don't forget you still get a point for picking the bet option!
Posted Sun Apr 15, 2007 10:20 am GMT by JohnnyCache
Almost everyone seems to be assuming that he'll check raise all in if he checks and gets action. Why not check and call action? Why not let the free card around and raise a bet on one of the following streets?
Posted Sun Apr 15, 2007 12:10 pm GMT by jimmer
| JohnnyCache wrote: | | Almost everyone seems to be assuming that he'll check raise all in if he checks and gets action. Why not check and call action? Why not let the free card around and raise a bet on one of the following streets? |
I don't understand, can you explain a bit more?
Posted Sun Apr 15, 2007 12:17 pm GMT by MrDarling
| JohnnyCache wrote: | | Almost everyone seems to be assuming that he'll check raise all in if he checks and gets action. Why not check and call action? Why not let the free card around and raise a bet on one of the following streets? |
No, what everyone is saying is that if you check, chances are villain is not going to bet, hence you will not be able to check/raise or even call. Which means you loose a bet.
However, there is a point that if you check the turn, most villain will call a reasonable river bet.
Posted Sun Apr 15, 2007 4:42 pm GMT by mortaleclipse
If knowing GR style as a LAG, check is showing extreme strength. Question and have seen this ten million times at the casino when a LAG player all of a sudden checks the turn when a draw hits.
Posted Sun Apr 15, 2007 5:23 pm GMT by snoogins47
| mortaleclipse wrote: | | If knowing GR style as a LAG, check is showing extreme strength. Question and have seen this ten million times at the casino when a LAG player all of a sudden checks the turn when a draw hits. |
I disagree with this like, a lot. GR's check-raise could be anything, but GR realizes that most any hand that can stand a c/r on that flop are, well, something, and he could easily take one shot and give up.
Posted Sun Apr 15, 2007 6:56 pm GMT by ToyMachine22122
IMHO, this situation depends entirely on the villain's play style.
Against a loose player, I would make a probing bet and hope for a call. In a best-case scenario (ie villain is holding JJ) or against an unexperienced player (yeah I know you said WSOP but I'm just saying) this could even produce a bluff attempt or aggressive bet out of them, which would give you the opportunity to push them out of the game or take a huge chunk of their chips.
Against a tight player, I agree with the check decision because we don't want to do anything to scare him and it is true that after a check on the turn a respectable bet could be expected to be called after the river.
|
|
