J's on a heavy draw paired board |
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Posted Tue Apr 24, 2007 10:57 am GMT by MrDarling
I'm back in basic because I don't know any more.
Is this a call or a fold?
Is it an easy decision?
No real read , my 3rd orbit in table or something.
Full Tilt Poker Game #2278384690: Table Barbie (6 max) - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 11:25:12 ET - 2007/04/24
Seat 1: PrinzPils ($17.70)
Seat 2: hero ($26.85)
Seat 3: Doctoremme ($13.45)
Seat 4: Svenbwoy ($25)
Seat 5: zbillyz ($19.25)
Seat 6: bigpapi9 ($25.40)
hero posts the small blind of $0.10
Doctoremme posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hero  
zbillyz folds
bigpapi9 calls $0.25
PrinzPils folds
hero raises to $1.30
Doctoremme folds
bigpapi9 calls $1.05
*** FLOP ***   
hero bets $2.60
bigpapi9 calls $2.60
*** TURN *** 
hero bets $4.30
bigpapi9 raises to $21.50, and is all in
Hero?
I really can't see trips pushing here. I'm showing enough aggression and villain has position, so he can wait for river to make a move. Same goes for set turned boat.
So what my move here?
Danny
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Posted Tue Apr 24, 2007 1:05 pm GMT by AHBrownell
The biggest problem here is your stakes. Its hard to know if you are playing a solid player or a complete moron at the micro limits.
If this was a higher stake game and he was a solid player, I put him on either a flush draw, or an 8. I don't think he has a full house, because like you said he can wait for the river.
I think your call is very marginal here because either you are drawing to two outs, or your opponent is drawing to nine. So you are either about 95% to lose or 80% to win. So I think either calling or folding could be correct. However, you might be up against a complete donkey whos making some stupid play with 55 or 22 or 85. OR you could be up against a solid hand like K  Q or K 5 .
Jacks is marginal here, so I'd probably fold it, but I tend to play conservatively in these close situations.
Posted Wed Apr 25, 2007 4:19 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
| Quote: | | I really can't see trips pushing here. I'm showing enough aggression and villain has position, so he can wait for river to make a move. Same goes for set turned boat. |
Bad logic. Many low stakes opponents get caught up in the "gee whiz I have top trips here!" and just push, praying that you actually have something rather than figuring that you might fire at the river.
Conceivably, you could be up against a lower pair or even a flush draw (or nothing because he's an idiot), but pretty hard to determine without more information.
Make no mistake, the hand he is representing IS TRIPS. Don't overthink and say "he wouldn't push trips or a boat here." He would. And unless you have other information, I strongly consider folding. Going broke with overpairs is bad, but if you're going to do it, do it with something like KK or AA in a pot that was reraised preflop, not a spot like this.
With more info, you could make a better case for calling, but without any reads... he represents a strong hand; do you have a reason to doubt him? If not, fold.
Posted Wed Apr 25, 2007 9:57 pm GMT by jeffonline
I think you have to consider that villain has called 3 good size raises and now come over the top with the all-in. I believe he has that 8 possibly A8. He is considering that you could be on flush draw and wants to end it now. I could fold this one without any other information.
Posted Wed Apr 25, 2007 11:31 pm GMT by MrDarling
this just doesn't make any sense to me. The players who usually push with big hands are the same one who push/ over bet / check raise with TPTK regardless of the PF action.
The more I think about it the more it look like a pocket pair. Low level players love to slow play their big pairs. So it could even be A's or K's. Usually when it suddenly look like the board might beat them, is when they push all the money in..
I did call. I'm rarely good enough to fold over pair in these limits. I'm just not sure if me calling all those is a leak in my game.
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