Through the Eyes of the GUMBIE |
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Posted Mon Apr 30, 2007 3:23 pm GMT by snoogins47
Step by Step, day by day, a fresh start over a different hand to play...
FullTiltPoker $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em 2007/04/28
Seat 1: UpNDownNUp ($22.20)
Seat 2: melanie139 ($45.25)
Seat 3: cptmorgan999 ($27.95)
Seat 4: mbburch ($26.50)
Seat 5: dannyy7 ($87.80)
Seat 6: Ieatpupeees ($44.80)
Seat 7: ereliaesae ($43.85)
Seat 8: Snoogins47 ($82.45)
Seat 9: Foxbat ($70)
dannyy7 posts the small blind of $0.25
Ieatpupeees posts the big blind of $0.50
Holecards :
Dealt to Foxbat  
cptmorgan999 has returned
ereliaesae calls $0.50
Snoogins47 raises to $2
Foxbat calls $2
UpNDownNUp calls $2
melanie139 folds
mbburch folds
dannyy7 calls $1.75
Ieatpupeees folds
ereliaesae calls $1.50
Flop :
  
dannyy7 bets $0.50
ereliaesae calls $0.50
Snoogins47 raises to $8
Foxbat...?
Typical stuff applies: reads, reasons, actions, possible future actions, etc. Foxbat is Gumbie. Snoogins is Snoogins. Snoogins is mostly sober and presumably playing to win. Gumbie can probably give you my vpip/pfr/etc. from that session if he sees this post.
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Posted Mon Apr 30, 2007 3:32 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
Ugh, just fold.
Assuming our pair is not good right now, we've got 8 outs at best with three left to act behind? I suppose you could reraise to shut out any diamond draws, but then you're possibly playing for your stack.
Just fold.
Posted Mon Apr 30, 2007 3:34 pm GMT by TheSalche
Snoog made a smallish raise preflop ... dunno what that means but I noted it.
Snoog makes standard continuation "bet" (weakness in front is basically the same as a check). Looks like he wants the pot now/pumping it up. Could easily be an overpair/big flush draw/set/44.
We are deep here so it is reasonable to peel off a card, the problem is Snoogins isn't an idiot so he understands that an ace or a six on the turn creates an easy straight.
I'd tend to fold cause my penis is actually inverted into a vagina.
Posted Mon Apr 30, 2007 4:45 pm GMT by AHBrownell
| Quote: | | Sean_in_NJ said: Assuming our pair is not good right now, we've got 8 outs at best... |
We have a pair and open-ender. Looks like 2 fives would probably also be outs. The fours cannot be counted because of the straight to the ace it puts out there.
I count ten outs. 
Not sure if that changes this from a fold to a call, but figured it was worth noting. :D
Posted Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:21 pm GMT by gumbie
After about 175 hands snoo was at 18/8/5
Posted Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:22 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| AHBrownell wrote: | | I count ten outs. |
Let's chop it at nine. If a third diamond comes, I'm not thrilled with my straight, especially with the donk min bet up front and the call.
| AHBrownell wrote: | | Not sure if that changes this from a fold to a call, but figured it was worth noting. :D |
Still a fold for me. We're chopping with other 4's and a three-flush makes me uncomfortable.
If we call, we're pricing in any draws behind. If we raise, Snoo could still punish us and repop it. And if the small bet or call up front is a set, then we're really sucking hind teat.
Heads-up or a rainbow board, I play it differently.
Posted Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:56 pm GMT by suitedaces84
Call. You gotta like the flop. There's a very good chance you can take this thing away from snoogins on the turn. If it's HU on the turn shove over his turn bet, or bet when he checks or hell even check when he checks to avoid a scary c/r because your hand easily could be good but giving a free card sucks b/c he has outs etc... I would think he'd fold just about everything to a turn shove (right?) and if he doesn't you can suckout. Then post hand on THP to show everyone how you outplayed snoogins.
Posted Mon Apr 30, 2007 6:44 pm GMT by snoogins47
The deeper we fall, the stronger we stay...
Dealt to Foxbat
Foxbat has $70
Snoogins covers
....
Flop :
dannyy7 bets $0.50
ereliaesae calls $0.50
Snoogins47 raises to $8
Foxbat calls $8
UpNDownNUp folds
dannyy7 folds
ereliaesae folds
Turn: Pot = $27
Snoogins47 bets $15
Foxbat...?
Posted Mon Apr 30, 2007 7:41 pm GMT by Jefecaminador
we'll make it better, the second time around...
fold.
Posted Mon Apr 30, 2007 8:33 pm GMT by jeffonline
I see a split pot coming.
Posted Mon Apr 30, 2007 10:08 pm GMT by snoogins47
We'll make it better, the second time around.
FullTiltPoker Table English Elm - $0.25/$0.50
Seat 1: UpNDownNUp ($22.20)
Seat 2: melanie139 ($45.25)
Seat 3: cptmorgan999 ($27.95)
Seat 4: mbburch ($26.50)
Seat 5: dannyy7 ($87.80)
Seat 6: Ieatpupeees ($44.80)
Seat 7: ereliaesae ($43.85)
Seat 8: Snoogins47 ($82.45)
Seat 9: Foxbat ($70)
dannyy7 posts the small blind of $0.25
Ieatpupeees posts the big blind of $0.50
cptmorgan999 is sitting out
Time has expired
The button is in seat #4
Holecards :
Dealt to Snoogins47  
cptmorgan999 has returned
ereliaesae calls $0.50
Snoogins47 raises to $2
Foxbat calls $2
UpNDownNUp calls $2
melanie139 folds
mbburch folds
dannyy7 calls $1.75
Ieatpupeees folds
ereliaesae calls $1.50
Flop :
dannyy7 bets $0.50
ereliaesae calls $0.50
Snoogins47 raises to $8
Foxbat calls $8
UpNDownNUp folds
dannyy7 folds
ereliaesae folds
Turn:$27
Snoogins47 bets $15
Foxbat calls $15
River:$57
Snoogins47... whats, with the intention of whatting?
Try to pretend you haven't seen the other side, of course.
As for up to this point: I lean toward thinking Gumbie should've probably put in a raise on the turn. I can't call with hardly anything, and even though most of the hands that I'm folding are actually worse than Gumbo's, I'm acting first on the river and it eliminates the guessing game on the river, since the majority of the time Gumbo is ahead, I'm drawing to 8 wins and 8 splits... and he may well end up having to fire on the river even if I check it to him, at least when the board pairs again but doesn't boat him.
I'm not totally positive on the turn raise though, other than the fact that given the results, I would've absolutely loved a turn raise
Looking back I was a tad surprised by the flop cold-call, and most especially calling it a 'standard C-bet.' Perhaps I'm nittier than some of you folks think (and yes, I understand how awesome that comment is given this specific hand ;p) I think that barring the rare cases like this hand magically ended up being, the worst hand I have after the flop raise is a significant favorite against 45 (except big AXd, which is coinflippy but due to implied odds and redraws probably puts me into a better spot, even OOP) , so as Suited mentioned, one of the primary strengths of calling here is the power of taking the pot away from me later. Given the line and the board, the efforts could probably be successful a huge percentage of the time.
Posted Mon Apr 30, 2007 11:25 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
| Quote: | | Snoogins47... whats, with the intention of whatting? |
Snoogins jumps, with the intention of punching the suckout artist in the neck.
Seriously though... it's hard to imagine the not hurting us in some way, but the question is how. He could have called on the turn in theory with a hand like A5, A4, 65, or 64 (or I suppose potentially an overpair, since snoogins is such a LAG), in which case we probably still stand to lose a lot of money. But with his calling such a big raise on the flop, I'd probably have to give him a set or the made straight with 64. One kills us, the other is killed by us.
I want to say check with the intention of calling any bet, but checking seems so weak (and I worry the results have biased me). The 5 is unquestioningly not a good card for us, but in some cases it does not help our opponent either. Any 6 might not check behind, but I think an Ace would. However, both an Ace, a 6, or three 5's has a good shot of calling a value bet from us.
The more I think about it, this might be a negative freeroll. No matter what, I don't see us folding here. Since if he has a better hand we stand to lose about the same amount whether we check or bet, I can only conclude that we should bet around $20 - $30 with the intention of going broke.
I suppose in some crazy world we can bet a little less with the intention of folding to a raise, but again, I worry that I'd be committing results-oriented thinking. It is difficult to imagine that our opponent could raise with a weaker hand (or any hand but a boat, really), but the idea of laying down the "nut" straight strikes me as nigh impossible.
Posted Tue May 01, 2007 12:48 am GMT by Phil14312
I read diamond's last analysis, seeing the first bolded part, then left the room.
I thought about it and decided I disagreed, saying we should bet/call any amount, because the 5 might give someone a desperation bluff, or they could just have had a five. Also, no ace is folding to a smallish value bet on the river.
With that said, you can't fold when villain raises, you will be getting too good odds to fold.
I'm glad DC came to the same conclusion.
Posted Tue May 01, 2007 2:37 pm GMT by snoogins47
Well I actually checked and fairly quickly called his river push, and at the time I was pretty well convinced that folding was impossible. Despite some doubting immediately afterward, I think folding is still probably bad, generally speaking.
My rationale for checking was that I was screaming that I had something like JJ/QQ/KK, and that I'll probably get him value betting a whole host of hands that I have beat, and he'll probably bluff the river at least somewhat frequently whereas he probably won't ever bluff-raise the river after I bet.
I'm still not totally sure though. Basically though, I figured that when I'm behind (as DC said) I'm losing the max regardless of my line. Naked 6 probably gives me his stack too either way though he may flat call. Naked A will probably call but rarely raise, probably similar-ish with trips. At the time, my gut instinct was that he's going to value bet the majority of these hands if I check to him anyway, and the extra bonus of inducing bluffs made it right.
Looking back it's probably mostly an issue of how often he checks behind with hands that will call a value bet by me. At the time I thought it was 'very rarely' since my line screams that I don't have a straight, but I'm also not sure how often Gumbo will bet with a naked A or trips, even if he's confident that he's ahead, since my line tends to also scream that I can't call a river bet. Very goot for the bluff catching value of the check (which is a significant bonus, considering I'm probably not value-pushing the river, and he's probably pushing if he's bluffing) but not quite so goot for when I sacrifice value against weaker made hands. Also given his flop cold-call, there's not a whole ton of hands he can have that can reasonably 'bluff' anyway.
I lean toward 'I wish I bet the river' now, though I think it's close (Gumbie had had some drinks, so he's more likely to value bet to my check even if he thinks I can't call it ;p) but I really did think this hand was interesting on a lot of streets on both sides of the coin.
An interesting side note though, is one other line I considered a bit, which is highly unorthodox and I haven't devoted enough time to think about whether it could be right or not in this spot but it's at least worth further discussion, especially inasmuch as it's fun/useful to figure out the merit of strange lines:
What about checking, folding to a push, but re-raise-pushing any smaller 'value' type bet?
The reasoning, even if it doesn't necessarily apply in this hand, should be fairly obvious, and thinking about it might open people up to some of the more unorthodox lines that might be right in this weird game we play.
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