Fictional Hand for Thought |
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Posted Wed May 02, 2007 6:40 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
Just something I was thinking about, and I'd like to hear what others would do with this.
Small stakes FL game ($3/$6 to $6/$12), you have A K on the button. 4 limpers to you, you raise, SB folds, BB and the limpers call.
6-handed flop is 4 5 6. A bet, raise and a cold-call to you.
Your action? Why?
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Posted Wed May 02, 2007 7:18 pm GMT by crack
Fold, on a 456s board with that action a lot of your outs will already be in their hands seeing as it was 6 handed and I very much doubt if you hit your A or K it will ever be good. I'd call for one bet but muck for 2, most probably.
Oh, and you could be drawing dead.
Posted Wed May 02, 2007 7:34 pm GMT by Phil14312
| crack wrote: | Fold, on a 456s board with that action a lot of your outs will already be in their hands seeing as it was 6 handed and I very much doubt if you hit your A or K it will ever be good. I'd call for one bet but muck for 2, most probably.
Oh, and you could be drawing dead. |
I'm never folding. Do you know how many bets are already in the pot????
Its either raise/call, and its close. You already have four people looking to see the turn, so raising could be purely for value.
Posted Wed May 02, 2007 8:50 pm GMT by crack
Yes, you have 9 outs ( A or K never good) but as I said in a 6 handed pot and with the action already before you, how many of those outs do you realistically think you have? Enough to call? I don't really think so, especially when you may be looking at two bb on the turn or a raise behind you and you have to call two bets on the flop.
Posted Wed May 02, 2007 11:05 pm GMT by Phil14312
You are getting 17:2 or 8.5:1, I could call with like 5 outs.
I'm not folding on the flop. Unless I'm faced with like 4 cold on the turn or the board has paired, I'm probably not folding that either.
Posted Thu May 03, 2007 12:33 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
I don't like any of our options, but the pot is simply too big to fold, even without full outs, which we clearly do not have.
Whether we call or raise I think partly depends on our opponents. If we call, we can potentially lay down on the turn if the situation turns grim, but if we raise (and probably resulting in a capped pot), this pot probably becomes a black hole--we can't escape, unless maybe we have to call like 3 bets cold on the turn.
| Quote: | | You already have four people looking to see the turn, so raising could be purely for value. |
That's probably the best argument for 3-betting, because it's very unlikely that we're drawing dead. But there are almost certainly some spades we don't really want to see. Also, if a 4th spade comes, we probably only stand to make few extra bets from people check/calling with the  or a SF draw.
On the other hand, with so many variables and so many damaging turn cards, I might just cold call here (one of the few times I'd ever do this). This strikes me as a situation similar to flops in Omaha 8-or-Better when you likely have good enough equity to raise, but don't do so because the turn can drastically affect the value of your hand.
All in all, a very difficult decision in my mind. My initial thought was raise, then call, then raise, and now it's swinging back to call. Problem is, if we raise and then the board pairs on the turn, it's pretty hard to call more than one bet, but it's also hard to fold simply because of the massive size of the pot. If there is any chance that 3-betting can get one or more people to abandon this pot, it's almost certainly better than cold calling.
Would need slightly more information about the people in the pot to definitively say call or raise, but I'm leaning toward raising again, lol. As Phil said, it's a pretty close decision, but the pot is simply too big to fold when you hold the  .
In lieu of other information, my final decision is raise, for the reasons I stated above. Potentially dump it on the turn to a paired board and heavy action.
Posted Thu May 03, 2007 5:12 am GMT by Iron Butt
Raise. The tough decision will be on the next card, or we hit and it will probably kill our action anyway, so let's try to cap it on the cheap street; or looking at it the other way, if anyone's going to fold or slow down, especially the EP better, to increase our chance of getting to the river for one big bet (assuming the raiser will raise the turn given the opportunity but of course can only make it one bet if checked to, and the caller will call), we want that to happen now while it does us the most good if we miss the turn and want to get to the river cheap. Or something. 
I agree with Cutter about the turn.
Is anyone really worried about the SF? I just don't see enough of those to worry about them all that much, especially in limit.
Posted Thu May 03, 2007 7:44 am GMT by Dave B
How many have called one or two bets already? On the flop, I want to build a pot as long as it stays 4-5 handed. If no one has bet then the 2 on my right raise and reraise, I just call. If the raise and reraise were followed by 1-2 callers already, then I 3 bet.
Why isnt the A or K good? I dont assume that they are, but w/ 3 suited rags on the flop, they didnt likely hit anyone. I dont go crazy if a A or K hit, but I do think I have the winner.
BTW-for y'all that want to discount the A or K for outs, using the same logic, you also want to back down your flush outs to 5-6. Only a straight, flush or set would bet or raise (maybe Ks), so you need to assume that some flush outs are in your opponents hands too.
Finally, the smooth call on the flop will hide your ace a little better and give you more action on the bigger streets.
Posted Thu May 03, 2007 1:00 pm GMT by Phil14312
Dave brought up a good point, our Aces and Kings are probably worth about another 2 outs.
Posted Thu May 03, 2007 4:16 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
I'm glad this is generating so much conversation.
When I first thought of this problem, my immediate reaction was to fold. With the action in front, I would almost completely discount an A or K as an out, since we're probably only making a second-best at that point. If the board pairs, drawing gets sketchy. If we do make our hand, we can't like seeing the 2, 3, 7 or 8.
I decided to try to mock up some hand ranges for the villains, and pipe them through PokerStove to see what our equity looks like:
| PokerStove wrote: |
11,608,740 games 0.656 secs 17,696,250 games/sec
Board: 4s 5s 6s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.961% 18.91% 00.05% 2195604 5530.50 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 34.994% 34.95% 00.05% 4056777 5593.50 { 66-44 }
Hand 2: 42.463% 42.42% 00.05% 4923870 5530.50 { KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, Ks3s, Ks2s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s }
Hand 3: 03.582% 03.53% 00.05% 410241 5593.50 { 77, A7s, K7s, Q7s, J7s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 75s+, A7o, K7o, Q7o, J7o, T7o, 97o, 87o, 76o } |
Hand 0 is ours, obviously. I assigned the second a set, the third a made flush and the fourth a range of cards that would give them a made straight or the top end of an OESD. With those parameters, we're winning less than 1/5 of the time.
It's likely a little better than these numbers show. My ranges don't account for hands like 2-pair that we're behind but have little to no redraw. They don't account for a naked K or Q that would be drawing near dead. I may try rerunning the sim with those possibilities included, but PokerStove is kind of a pain in the ass to deal with when creating convoluted combinations.
If we do decide to continue, whether to call or raise requires a hell of a lot more information than we'll ever have in a vaccuum. For the sake of simplicity, I'll assume we lost two in the middle and the only one left to act behind you is the original bettor. Will 3-bets get you a free card on the turn? That's really player-specific. Will the original bettor call two bets as easily as he'll call one? I think we need to keep him if we can't get a freebee on the turn, and reopening the betting here could be plain spewage. Calling for the purposes of disguising our hand is probably a minor consideration here.
If I'm forced to play it, I think I go with a call. It gets really interesting after that if the original bettor makes it 3, followed by a cap.
I still think this is a fold though.
Posted Thu May 03, 2007 5:21 pm GMT by Dave B
You are an idiot to fold here.
Even and 20% equity vs 2 hands that are unlikely and disaster against you, you are still priced in to call given the preflop action.
If I raise, I expect it to be capped, and that does not bother me too much. Any low flush, straight or set will keep raising to protect themselves.
Dont forget, many will raise here w/ just a 7 or 3, regardless of whether they have a spade or not. The 1st raise on that board means nothing.
Posted Thu May 03, 2007 6:18 pm GMT by snoogins47
I'm sure as hell not folding this flop.
It's not a dream situation for sure, but getting those kinds of odds, when we've got 9 cards we can see on the turn which make us supremely confident that we're ahead by a significant amount, I don't think the threat of multi-way spewage in the future is enough of a big deal to merit giving up on this pot. And we're on the button, no less. We'll usually be able to gather a pretty good idea of where we stand on just about any turn card, by virtue of acting last. I just simply cannot see folding on the flop here.
Posted Thu May 03, 2007 7:14 pm GMT by tame_deuces
Yeah this is a pretty easy call. I think the handranges we have to setup for this to be unprofitable will simply be much too conservative to properly fit an FL table where 4 players limp preflop. Biased sample I know, with only one hand to judge it from, but it has worked for me so far.
I think a negative implied odds discussion around hitting an A or K on the turn/river is a much more interesting, as how well we tackle that situation will probably define how profitable these situations are for us as a whole much more than flop handranges will.
Posted Thu May 03, 2007 7:21 pm GMT by jeffonline
I nearly had a brain explosion thinking about this.
I just want to see the next card if it’s a spade, then I want to see the river, the olds are there to call, if a falls on the turn I want more money in the pot to call the river. I raise.
Posted Fri May 04, 2007 1:11 am GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| tame_deuces wrote: | | I think a negative implied odds discussion around hitting an A or K on the turn/river is a much more interesting, as how well we tackle that situation will probably define how profitable these situations are for us as a whole much more than flop handranges will. |
That's probably why I lean toward folding. I don't trust myself on later streets. 
Posted Fri May 04, 2007 5:01 am GMT by fiezk
you can't assume you are up against a set and a flush just because someone raised that flop. Folding here would be very weak tight.
As for the negative implied odds, they mean very little. The only difference hitting a king or an ace would make is that you might call one bet on the river, and that is if the action slows down on the turn. It is very nice to have the button in a situation like this.
Posted Fri May 04, 2007 7:17 am GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| fiezk wrote: | | you can't assume you are up against a set and a flush just because someone raised that flop. |
I'm not afraid of the raise. The cold call is a very different animal, especially when you know they don't have the A.
| fiezk wrote: | | Folding here would be very weak tight. |
I think it's a closer decision than everyone else, it seems. Maybe the game in my head isn't as soft as the one everyone else has in theirs.
Posted Fri May 04, 2007 1:10 pm GMT by suitedaces84
I don't get what's so scary about the cold call. Most players will cold call 2 with the Ks, Qs maybe the Js, an open ended straight, a pair a decent spade, a pair and a straight draw, etc and frequently be correct in doing so. There's a ton of worse hands the cold caller could have. You're giving the cold caller way too much credit in your simulation.
Posted Fri May 04, 2007 1:51 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | I don't get what's so scary about the cold call. Most players will cold call 2 with the Ks, Qs maybe the Js, an open ended straight, a pair a decent spade, a pair and a straight draw, etc and frequently be correct in doing so. There's a ton of worse hands the cold caller could have. You're giving the cold caller way too much credit in your simulation. |
Like I said, the imaginary game in my head isn't that loose.
Posted Fri May 04, 2007 2:16 pm GMT by supafrey
| Sean_in_NJ wrote: | | suitedaces84 wrote: | | I don't get what's so scary about the cold call. Most players will cold call 2 with the Ks, Qs maybe the Js, an open ended straight, a pair a decent spade, a pair and a straight draw, etc and frequently be correct in doing so. There's a ton of worse hands the cold caller could have. You're giving the cold caller way too much credit in your simulation. |
Like I said, the imaginary game in my head isn't that loose. |
But is it really that tight?
Posted Fri May 04, 2007 2:19 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| supafrey wrote: | | But is it really that tight? |
I guess, although if experience is any indication, I'd spend all this time pondering this situation now but 3-bet almost without thinking if it were to actually come up.
I'm kinda Jeckyll and Hyde that way.
Posted Fri May 04, 2007 2:26 pm GMT by Phil14312
I'm also not folding an Ace or King on the turn or river if its one bet to me.
Calling may cost a fraction of the bet. But when the pot is soooooo ginormous....like 30 bets or something, there's no way I'm folding an Ace or King on the turn for one bet.
Posted Fri May 04, 2007 4:30 pm GMT by snoogins47
I think being in position behind everybody that's already shown interest in the pot helps offset a lot of the crappiness of having to play on future streets with a lot of uncertainty. Perhaps a minor benefit of cold-calling is that it probably makes our opponents more likely to define their hands more clearly on future streets, but I haven't really thought enough about it to decide if that's much of a factor.
It probably helps on pairing turns, and I have to imagine it helps when we spike an overcard too: both times, the difference between facing two cold and facing a single bet/check is quite significant as far as where we stand. If people slow down on the A or K turn, we might well find a spot where we can raise as some sort of hybrid semi bluff/valuebet/showdown looker (which it seems all bets/raises turn into in big limit pots) If we have to face two cold we can check the action and decide whether we want to peel one off, but we'll know that we almost certainly need to improve to show the hand down, etc.
Posted Fri May 04, 2007 10:20 pm GMT by crack
Maybe I was too hasty to say fold here without thinking about it correctly.
But all I see is a potential spew when the A or K comes because "the pot is so big" even though we probably have little less than 0 chance of winning with just that, look at the action in a multi way pot on a 456s board. I cannot see an A or K being good there hardly ever and what will we do when it's two bets to us on the turn when the Ah hits?
"We have nfd and TPTK, call and spew some chippies"
I can also see so many dead outs and perhaps getting 3 bet and capped after we are in for 2 on the flop. Then it gets bet and raised on the turn and then what do we do?
Perhaps I have overlooked the players skill at the table and have something wrong as I am in the minority, but I'd rather not get involved here because I reckon I am drawing way thin and will have to call extra bets on the turn.
That said, I bet I would 3 bet that without a thought too. 
Posted Fri May 04, 2007 10:52 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| Dave B wrote: | | BTW-for y'all that want to discount the A or K for outs, using the same logic, you also want to back down your flush outs to 5-6. Only a straight, flush or set would bet or raise (maybe Ks), so you need to assume that some flush outs are in your opponents hands too. |
If you're going to discount the number of outs you have based on your opponents' actions you also have to subtract the appropiate number from the unseen deck. Yes, there may only be 6 good spades but there's also fewer bad cards left in the deck.
The number doesn't jump from 9/47 to 6/47 it goes from 9/47 to 6/39 or whatever. (I say whatever because there's no way of knowing).
Anyway, if your opponents are decent there's a ton of crap they can have. If they suck there's probably even more crap they can have.
It seems like everyone is missing how big the pot is and how that relates to your play. Actually the pot size is also relevant in everyone else's play. Which is why I said if they're decent there's still a ton of crap they can have.
If this thing ends up capped on the flop it's far from a disaster.
So you call, everyone folds to the bettor, who calls. There are four professional players to the turn. The bettor, the raiser, the cold-caller and you. The turn is Kd. The action checks to the raisor, who bets, the cold-caller calls, what's your play?
Posted Sat May 05, 2007 1:54 am GMT by supafrey
call.
Posted Sat May 05, 2007 4:12 am GMT by Phil14312
I call as well, also calling river.
And for those discounting outs, is it really that hard to believe we may be up against a straight w/ no spades, a set, and something like the lone K ?
And I'm not contradicting myself by still wanting to call with an Ace or King. I don't really want to fully explain b/c its late, but if someone asks I'll explain how I think about it.
Posted Sat May 05, 2007 10:41 am GMT by snoogins47
| Phil14312 wrote: | I call as well, also calling river.
And for those discounting outs, is it really that hard to believe we may be up against a straight w/ no spades, a set, and something like the lone K ?
And I'm not contradicting myself by still wanting to call with an Ace or King. I don't really want to fully explain b/c its late, but if someone asks I'll explain how I think about it. |
Well yeah, when we have to get involved on future streets because of the large pot and lack of information, even when we may have improved to a losing hand, is part of the reason people are advocating folding, and surely why calling calling/raising isn't as awesome of an option as we want it to be. Correct play on future streets may end up being wrong FTOP wise a significant portion of the time, but that doesn't mean we should just give up the pot later because we don't know where we stand and the decisions are hard, and the combination hand/draw strength probably make seeing the river right, unless we get more information on the turn some other way.
| Quote: | | So you call, everyone folds to the bettor, who calls. There are four professional players to the turn. The bettor, the raiser, the cold-caller and you. The turn is Kd. The action checks to the raisor, who bets, the cold-caller calls, what's your play? |
I haven't sat down to really think about it yet, but my first instinct is raise, and my second instinct agrees. Stupid thing about raising is when we wind up having to call a bet on the river, maybe even overcall, just out of the sheer size of the pot: in essence, it's quite possible that any extra information we get from raising the turn won't be enough information to let us fold the river, which sucks. Hmm.
Posted Sat May 05, 2007 11:37 am GMT by supafrey
| Quote: | | Stupid thing about raising is when we wind up having to call a bet on the river, maybe even overcall, just out of the sheer size of the pot: in essence, it's quite possible that any extra information we get from raising the turn won't be enough information to let us fold the river, which sucks. Hmm. |
Then why are we doing it?
Remember your "when information is too costly for its own use" shpiel? yeah this sort of applies.
Posted Sat May 05, 2007 4:25 pm GMT by Phil14312
| supafrey wrote: | | Quote: | | Stupid thing about raising is when we wind up having to call a bet on the river, maybe even overcall, just out of the sheer size of the pot: in essence, it's quite possible that any extra information we get from raising the turn won't be enough information to let us fold the river, which sucks. Hmm. |
Then why are we doing it?
Remember your "when information is too costly for its own use" shpiel? yeah this sort of applies. |
When the pot gets huge, investing an extra bet or two to win the pot is good. If we can fold out out some random hands with 3-10% equity, thats a big victory for one extra bet in a pot this big.
If we hit a king or ace on the turn, I'm raising for this reason, I guess retracting my initial thought of calling.
Posted Sat May 05, 2007 4:45 pm GMT by snoogins47
| supafrey wrote: | | Quote: | | Stupid thing about raising is when we wind up having to call a bet on the river, maybe even overcall, just out of the sheer size of the pot: in essence, it's quite possible that any extra information we get from raising the turn won't be enough information to let us fold the river, which sucks. Hmm. |
Then why are we doing it?
Remember your "when information is too costly for its own use" shpiel? yeah this sort of applies. |
Well yeah, but I'm also now somewhat confident that I have the best hand now, have some significant number of outs, and have position. The information aspect doesn't do us a whole lot of good, but that's far from the only reason to raise. A lot of it depends on how we're defining these 'professionals' in the hypothetical though.
Posted Sat May 05, 2007 10:51 pm GMT by Dave B
Here is a RADICAL thought.....
I bet about 10% of the time our AK is ahead on this flop and we dont need to improve at all.
Posted Sun May 06, 2007 1:44 am GMT by supafrey
| snoogins47 wrote: | | supafrey wrote: | | Quote: | | Stupid thing about raising is when we wind up having to call a bet on the river, maybe even overcall, just out of the sheer size of the pot: in essence, it's quite possible that any extra information we get from raising the turn won't be enough information to let us fold the river, which sucks. Hmm. |
Then why are we doing it?
Remember your "when information is too costly for its own use" shpiel? yeah this sort of applies. |
Well yeah, but I'm also now somewhat confident that I have the best hand now, have some significant number of outs, and have position. The information aspect doesn't do us a whole lot of good, but that's far from the only reason to raise. A lot of it depends on how we're defining these 'professionals' in the hypothetical though. |
top pair is not winning the hand right now.
Posted Sun May 06, 2007 5:26 pm GMT by snoogins47
| supafrey wrote: | | top pair is not winning the hand right now. |
I don't think that's true, or that you can reasonably make a case that you even believe this with any sort of confidence. I'm extremely uncertain as to whether or not we're ahead often enough to merit raising though, hence why I couldn't decide if I liked raising or not.
Posted Sun May 06, 2007 8:14 pm GMT by suitedaces84
I'd estimate you're ahead ~25% of the time. And raising then checking behind on the river UI usually won't cost extra. And it could force someone to fold away a lot of equity. You could also take an extra bet off someone who has a draw and calls. Of course you could also get 3-bet which would suck.
Posted Mon May 07, 2007 4:31 pm GMT by Phil14312
| supafrey wrote: | | snoogins47 wrote: | | supafrey wrote: | | Quote: | | Stupid thing about raising is when we wind up having to call a bet on the river, maybe even overcall, just out of the sheer size of the pot: in essence, it's quite possible that any extra information we get from raising the turn won't be enough information to let us fold the river, which sucks. Hmm. |
Then why are we doing it?
Remember your "when information is too costly for its own use" shpiel? yeah this sort of applies. |
Well yeah, but I'm also now somewhat confident that I have the best hand now, have some significant number of outs, and have position. The information aspect doesn't do us a whole lot of good, but that's far from the only reason to raise. A lot of it depends on how we're defining these 'professionals' in the hypothetical though. |
top pair is not winning the hand right now. |
This is limit poker, drawing is what we do and so does everyone else, even to longshot or drawing dead odds. A King may very well win this hand, depending on the action in the big bet streets. If its 2 bets or less on the turn and river, there is a decent chance TPTK will win the pot.
Posted Tue May 08, 2007 2:42 pm GMT by supafrey
| Phil14312 wrote: | | supafrey wrote: | | snoogins47 wrote: | | supafrey wrote: | | Quote: | | Stupid thing about raising is when we wind up having to call a bet on the river, maybe even overcall, just out of the sheer size of the pot: in essence, it's quite possible that any extra information we get from raising the turn won't be enough information to let us fold the river, which sucks. Hmm. |
Then why are we doing it?
Remember your "when information is too costly for its own use" shpiel? yeah this sort of applies. |
Well yeah, but I'm also now somewhat confident that I have the best hand now, have some significant number of outs, and have position. The information aspect doesn't do us a whole lot of good, but that's far from the only reason to raise. A lot of it depends on how we're defining these 'professionals' in the hypothetical though. |
top pair is not winning the hand right now. |
This is limit poker, drawing is what we do and so does everyone else, even to longshot or drawing dead odds. A King may very well win this hand, depending on the action in the big bet streets. If its 2 bets or less on the turn and river, there is a decent chance TPTK will win the pot. |
Raising the turn is still silly.
Posted Tue May 08, 2007 3:38 pm GMT by Dave B
Why is raising the turn silly? I wouldnt do it most of the time, but it has its merit.
If you are playing at a table that is very loose preflop and tightens up post flop, you can easily get a straight or small flush to lay down here if they need to call 2 bets cold.
Where I play, many, MANY players will limp or call 2-3 bets with junk hands. Many tables have consistant 4-6 way action and small ball played correctly can be very profitable.
While these players might limp with junk, they are also capable of making big laydowns if it is going to be too expensive. They are looking for cheap 4-6:1 payouts. Making them call 3 big bets when they down know what action will be behind them can elicit some very big folds. This will NOT work against a table of idiots, but it will at higher level limit games. You also cant be splashing around in every pot, showing bluffs and expect this to work.
Posted Tue May 08, 2007 10:19 pm GMT by Phil14312
| supafrey wrote: | | Phil14312 wrote: | | supafrey wrote: | | snoogins47 wrote: | | supafrey wrote: | | Quote: | | Stupid thing about raising is when we wind up having to call a bet on the river, maybe even overcall, just out of the sheer size of the pot: in essence, it's quite possible that any extra information we get from raising the turn won't be enough information to let us fold the river, which sucks. Hmm. |
Then why are we doing it?
Remember your "when information is too costly for its own use" shpiel? yeah this sort of applies. |
Well yeah, but I'm also now somewhat confident that I have the best hand now, have some significant number of outs, and have position. The information aspect doesn't do us a whole lot of good, but that's far from the only reason to raise. A lot of it depends on how we're defining these 'professionals' in the hypothetical though. |
top pair is not winning the hand right now. |
This is limit poker, drawing is what we do and so does everyone else, even to longshot or drawing dead odds. A King may very well win this hand, depending on the action in the big bet streets. If its 2 bets or less on the turn and river, there is a decent chance TPTK will win the pot. |
Raising the turn is still silly. |
Investing one more bet to fold out some hand with even small equity is a big win for us. Its one bet Supa, not our stack.
Posted Wed May 09, 2007 6:09 pm GMT by ScanX
I 3-bet the flop and call the cap to give me better odds to call on turn.
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