Building a roll with HU SnGs |
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Posted Mon May 14, 2007 2:48 am GMT by Geno
Does anyone build their roll by playing lots of HU SnG tourneys? I personally don't but I don't think it is a horrible idea.
The fee on a SnG is nearly always 5% of the buy-in so to break even, your win rate needs to be 52.5% or 21 wins from every 40 games played.
Since you know the swing on a single game can only be one buy-in, provided you play within set limits (say, buy-in no greater than 5% of your roll), even if you go on a bad run, I can't see you going broke unless you start to play horribly?
Maybe it's not a great idea because to turn a decent ROI you need a win rate that is quite high, it's just something I've been considering lately.......
Someone tell me it's a horrible idea and why!
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Posted Mon May 14, 2007 3:13 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
You can make a decent and even winning ROI at heads-up SnG's, but I think that most people good enough to be profitable at HU could make a much better hourly rate at full table SnG's, despite the higher vig. And truth be told, if people put the same effort into learning good Limit or deepstack NL Poker could probably make a better still hourly rate at cash games where the vig is hardly a concern.
And on a side note, I think even the best HU player is the world is rarely more than a 60-40 (or in extreme cases a 65-35) favorite just because of the inherent volatility of heads-up Poker. Gavin Smith, Mike Matusow, and others have had similar thoughts when talking about heads up competitions (and neither are heads-up slouches or especially modest about their perceived skill levels).
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 3:36 am GMT by Jernej Zorec
the lower levels served me well when i started with 10$,
only thing is u need to play a lot of them
i would still play them but i came high enough to move into cash games
| Code: |
1$ HU SNG's
Won Lost
88 53
Won % 62.41
ROI 18.88
Profit 27.95
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oh and check tatta on sharkscope :D
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 3:38 am GMT by MrDarling
We had here someone who was working on making $50 into $10k within a year.
He claims to build his BR playing HU. Haven't seen him for a while and forgot his screen name.
the thing is low limit HU is extremely soft. I was doing pretty well in the $5 $10 ones - but that guy was speaking about the $50 also being soft...
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 7:57 am GMT by Geno
I think the fact that even the best players get about a 60/40 win/lose rate should put anyone off then. You are making only a 7.5% ROI at best which could be a grind in absolute terms at all but the highest buy-in games.
Basically I threw down $50 at VCPoker about 3 weeks ago, donked it down to $20 then came 2nd in a $5 MTT for the best part of $400. Since then, I've had some nice cashes in MTTs but also donked off a few $$$ at SnG games.
Last night, I played a couple of $20 SnG before I hit the sack and won 1, lost 1 which got me thinking about whether it was a good idea.
I'm looking to get my roll up to $1,000 by the end of May because I have a specific purpose for that amount of money and since it all would have come from $50, I see it as free money and will spend it in a wanton fashion (if I manage it, I'll be sure to explain myself!).
For now, I'm sticking with low buy-in MTTs ($10 or less, $5/$3 rebuys ideally) and hoping for a big score. So far 2/526, 16/180 and 12/780 suggests that I may do OK this way but we'll see. I have a night off tonight so I will see what MTTs are about and try and get a result.
I pretty much despise online poker and as it is the summer, I am going to withdraw whatever money I have at the end of May and not play again for a few months - I just hope I can make this target.....
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 8:51 am GMT by MrDarling
I found the dude : http://www.texasholdem-poker.com/forum/profile/cayouche
But am not sure if he talked about building the BR on his blog or on a post here some where.
how did you come with the 60:40 thing? I think a good player have much bigger edge against a donk.
But mine is just a gut feeling, not even an educated guess.
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 2:06 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
| MrDarling wrote: |
how did you come with the 60:40 thing? I think a good player have much bigger edge against a donk.
But mine is just a gut feeling, not even an educated guess. |
It's not my estimate; it's the estimate of a lot of top pros that I happen to agree with. If the stacks were deep and the structure was generous, I think you would see a better win rate of the top players vs. the worst players. Maybe the best heads-up player in the world is a 3-to-1 favorite (75%) against the worst heads-up player in the world, but I sincerely doubt he will be much more than that, simply because heads-up Poker is incredibly volatile, especially with the standard structures out there today.
I think if you ran Phil Ivey against your standard donk in 10000 PS HU matches, you wouldn't see Phil win more than 6600 or so. That is a very good win rate, but in any one match, it's hard to see him being any more than a 2-to-1 favorite, not least because shorter stacks tend to be the great equalizer.
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 6:33 pm GMT by MrDarling
You might have a point there . Can't seem to win an HU s&g - lost the last 5.
Here is the first hand of the last one :
I probably should have folded PF - or the turn.
Had him on a big hand and thought I could break him had I hit any of my outs
Full Tilt Poker Game #2425621595: $5 + $0.25 Heads Up Sit & Go (18367727), Table 1 - 10/20 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:30:15 ET - 2007/05/14
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hero  
hero calls 10
McNeezy99 raises to 100
hero calls 80
*** FLOP ***   
McNeezy99 bets 200
hero calls 200
*** TURN *** 
McNeezy99 bets 600
hero raises to 1,200, and is all in
McNeezy99 calls 600, and is all in
hero shows
McNeezy99 shows  
*** RIVER *** 
hero shows two pair, Sevens and Sixes
McNeezy99 shows a flush, Ten high
McNeezy99 wins the pot (3,000) with a flush, Ten high
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