Wait for the money or go for the win? |
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Posted Mon May 14, 2007 3:33 am GMT by Eusebio
45-player sng
9 remain
Full Tilt Poker Game #2400776312: $5 + $0.50 Sit & Go (18161898) , Table 4 - 600/1200 - No Limit Hold'em - 12:17:35 ET - 2007/05/11
Seat 1: Karero (14,390)
Seat 2: DOK_HOLLYDAY (17,402)
Seat 3: JotaRota (4,485)
Seat 4: Eusebio1210 (7,025)
Seat 5: hopper2007 (460), is sitting out
Seat 6: MadtownJMiller (1,020)
Seat 7: mingomat (6,045)
Seat 8: bdyson64 (640)
Seat 9: pretender999 (16,033)
JotaRota posts the small blind of 600
Eusebio1210 posts the big blind of 1,200
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Eusebio1210  
hopper2007 folds
MadtownJMiller folds
mingomat folds
bdyson64 folds
pretender999 folds
Karero folds
DOK_HOLLYDAY raises to 2,400
JotaRota folds
Eusebio1210 ?
I could wait here one orbit and win 11$ almost for sure, but my 5k stack will probably not win much more than 6th or 5th, or I could push since the bigstack is bullying us for quite a while now...
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Posted Mon May 14, 2007 3:42 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
I'm pretty much of the mind that you should always go for the win instead of the minimum, but getting the minimum payout is a hell of a lot better than getting nothing, and going broke here would be pretty bad with when 2 players have less than the BB left. Based on this situation, it's an easy fold for me.
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 4:06 am GMT by MrDarling
it also really depend how DOK been playing.
Does he raise every pot and fold to reraise? I do not like to push with easily dominated hand into limpers let alone raiser.
I think its a fold.
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 4:32 am GMT by Eusebio
3 Players have less than the BB...
DOK_HOLLYDAY and pretender999 built their stack by bullying people... raised like 4 hands every orbit, winning almost everytime uncontested.
if i fold here and lets asume, that my sb will also be a folding hand i have about 5000 left and when will i have a hand like AT again?
DOK_Hollyday could easily call a raise since he has me outchiped with a hand thats probably not that good
I think from a mathematical point of view, this could be the hand that can give me a chance of winning or at least having a cahcne to step up in the payoutlist.
lets assume he is raising (and calling my push) with every Ace and every pair:
there are 8 Aces i dominate, and 3 where I am dominated.
8 pairs i have a 50/50 chance against and 3 pairs i am a 3 to 7 dog (iŽll forget TT and AA for now, because they are the most unlikely hands).
lets say i win this hand, i have about 15.000 in chips, being second at the moment.
For our example lets say that i can finish with this stack on average 2nd-3rd, which would pay about 40-50$ (dont have the exact figures in my head).
So even if its just a coinflip or a bit in favor for me (considering all the outcomes, if he is calling with the range of hands i put him on), I guess i will win more money on avg. if i push.
10 times the situation where i push and he calls
5 times I lose = 0$
5 times I win = 200$
10 times the situation where i fold
9 times i win 11$ = 99$
1 time i finish out of the money = 0
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 5:20 am GMT by Jernej Zorec
he is calling u with way too many hands
its 4625 for him to call and total pot is 10025 after u push
considering he has to have some idea since he knows he has to play agressive, and getting better than 2:1 he will also call you with most hands
and with 3 guys so short its just wrong to flip
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 6:25 am GMT by MrDarling
From the way you describe his play I think I push.
Your stack is so small compare to the blinds that he will probably be correct to call with ATC. However it doesn't seem like you get any other chance to open push.
Are we really going to sit tight just so we can double the buyin?
One more orbit and even if you double up you have nothing...
I say push, and pray that he call with as worse hand and don't suck out on you.
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 7:46 am GMT by Geno
I think almost regardless of my read on him I fold here because of the state of the other stacks.
It's horrible advice to not play for the win a lot of the time but in this specific situation, I think it's the right move.
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 9:01 am GMT by Ensano
| Geno wrote: | I think almost regardless of my read on him I fold here because of the state of the other stacks.
It's horrible advice to not play for the win a lot of the time but in this specific situation, I think it's the right move. |
this is a very good point... people talk about situations where you lay down AA preflop when on the bubble... this extreme situation is no different...
wait out the other two players then go for the win...
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 9:05 am GMT by Eusebio
Is my mathematical approach wrong? 
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 9:14 am GMT by Ensano
| Eusebio wrote: | | Is my mathematical approach wrong? |
in my opinion you're assuming a lot of things... assuming what place you'll get if you win this pot, what hands specifically he has...
if you ask me... if the villian is raising almost 4 hands every orbit he could have almost anything..
not only that but he'll also be priced to call you with anything (any pair, any 2 live cards)...
when you're on the bubble you need to do everything in your power to GUARANTEE that you make the money... by folding this hand you're doing this, then you can pick a spot to go all in...
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 9:33 am GMT by Jernej Zorec
| Eusebio wrote: | | Is my mathematical approach wrong? |
ur math might be ok as far as chips are concerned
but when it comes to actual money u have to fold
if u push the only ones that gain $EV are the short stacks
its likely one of ICM bubble situations where +ChipEV means -$EV
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 10:10 am GMT by Eusebio
i am assuming alwys the average... sometime you take the tourney down, sometimes you finish 6th, but a win of 40$ on avg. should be ok, but lets assume that the avg is only 30 and he will call with every hand: My AT is a 3:2 favorite over a random hand... or am i wrong?
Of course i understand that if i fold i will make it in the money almost always, but i am left with 5k, and lets say a shortstack manages to stay alive... how long do i make the "folding into the money"?? until i am shortstacked myself and i have almost no chance of climbing up where the money is (3rd and 2nd)... next orbit it would be 1400/700, leaving me with M 1.5 afterwards...
if I post a bad beat story, I have to hear everytime that "in the long run-blabla", when are we looking at the long run and when does the short run count?
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 1:58 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
No, the mathematical approach is not wrong per se, but I think YOUR math is wrong. Saying that 5 times out of 10 you win $200 and 5 times out of 10 you win $0 is way overestimating your chances. Folding has much higher EV than reraising here, but while getting 2400 extra chips will only help a little in terms of $EV, losing your stack is tremendously -$EV.
I agree that you're getting called by a lot of hands, some of which you are ahead of, but losing is such a disaster for you when there are three players so ultra-short as they are.
| Quote: | | when are we looking at the long run and when does the short run count? |
Never. Looking at the "short run" is stupid, because the best "long run" decision is always the best decision in any gambling enterprise, period. Making the distinction between what the "correct" play is between the short and long run is beyond stupid, because math is math, and 51% always beats 49% in the long OR short run. Cards have no memory.
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 2:11 pm GMT by AHBrownell
What about calling?
You can still fold on the flop and pretty much guarantee a money finish, BUT you have the potential to win the pot and get into a decent chip position.
I do this all the time. Its like a stop and go, but without the auto-push. Basically if you hit the flop in the right way, you can take the pot away. If not, you aren't in a much different spot then you were by just folding. There is a lot of money in there, with your blind and his bet. The one part of this play is that if you hit your hand, you have to be willing to go broke. I would be, but I understand the whole "wait it out" mentality. I think this is one situation where you call, if you hit a ten high or A-high board or 3 diamonds you can shove, if not you can check/fold. I mean if he has a hand this time, ala AK or AA or KK or something big and you hit your hand you will go broke most of the time, but if he is just stealing - this might be your chance to double up without a showdown. 
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 2:22 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Calling is worse than either raising or folding because he will almost ALWAYS shove when you check to him on the flop. You will pair one of your cards only 1/3 of the time, and saving the extra BB will help you a lot more.
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 3:18 pm GMT by Eusebio
| Quote: | | No, the mathematical approach is not wrong per se, but I think YOUR math is wrong. |
I did not post detailed calculations, because i didnt calculate it exactly.
Chipcounts after I win the hand
Karero (14,390)
DOK_HOLLYDAY (10,377)
JotaRota (3,885)
Eusebio1210 (14,650)
hopper2007 (460)
MadtownJMiller (1,020)
mingomat (6,045)
bdyson64 (640)
pretender999 (16,033)
Payoutstructure is
1. 85,50
2. 56,25
3. 36,00
4. 22,50
5. 13,50
6. 11,25
there is 225$ in the Pot.
225/6=37,5
So If I cash (and lets asume that I will with the bigstack) I will get 37,5$ on avg. right? (40$ was too high, but i calculated with a coinflip, since i was more pessimistic about his callinghand-range)
If my AT is a 3:2 favorite against a random hand (again we are assuming that he will call with any hand, since he gets the right odds to call even with 72os)
So I will have the bigstackafter this hand in 6 out of 10 cases, which wil give me 6 times 37,5$ = 225$ (in 10 games)that makes a net of 170$ (5,50 per game)
If I fold and we assume that i will make it in the money 9 out of 10 times i will have 101.25$... net 46.25
We are thinking here about the long run, right, so a push is 3.68 times more profitable than a fold.
If my math is not correct (of course i can forget something e.g.) than i would like to ask for an exact calculation
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 4:05 pm GMT by AHBrownell
| Quote: | | Calling is worse than either raising or folding because he will almost ALWAYS shove when you check to him on the flop. You will pair one of your cards only 1/3 of the time, and saving the extra BB will help you a lot more. |
I don't think this is completely true in this case.
If we fold we have 5225 chips after the SB.
If we call and fold we have 4025 chips after the SB.
This doesn't seem very different to me. The 4485, 1020, and 460 stacks are in about the same situation to us as before, which is all that is important with the blinds this high.
So, lets say 1/3 of the time we will win the pot of 2400 + 2400 + 600= 5400. Our stack will increase to 9425, which now puts us in a good chip position against the 6045 stack, and out of harms way for the next couple rounds. The other 2/3s the time, we are not in a much different condition against the stacks that we are trying to wait out.
I don't see how the extra blind will help "a lot more." 
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 4:15 pm GMT by Concussed
Firstly - Great Post !
I am tempted to fire back with an all-in, but with the nasty thought of losing all when others are in a nastier position, I would just about fold here.
But it's a great debate !
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 5:19 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
OK, let's simplify the math as you suggested and assume that a cash is worth $37.50 on average. However, since you have invested $5.50, you should consider the value of cashing only $32, not $37.50.
If you push and get called by a non-random hand, we will assume it is about a 50-50 (averaging the times you are called by a pair lower than tens, a smaller ace, two high cards, some hands like K9 or K8, and a bigger Ace or TT-AA). That's just an estimate, but I think it reflects his calling range decently.
Let's say you get called 80% of the time by his range (again if we know his exact range we could get a fix on exactly how often he is calling), and your opponent folds 20% of the time.
So, 20% of the time you will probably cash, we'll say 90% of the time or so that your opponent folds you cash.
Another 40% of the time, you will double up and definitely cash, we'll say 100% of the time.
But another 40% of the time, not only will you win $0, but you will lose $5.50. So the expectation there is -$5.50.
Together, that makes (0.18)(32) + (0.02)(-5.5) + (0.40)(32) + (0.40)(-5.5) = $13.35 in EV by pushing.
If you decide you fold, we will say that you will probably still cash 75% of the time. The EV of folding is then (0.75)(32) + (0.25)(-5.5) = $22.63.
By my estimation then, folding has higher $EV than pushing. But you can alter the numbers if you think my estimations are unrealistic. Especially if you think he is folding to your push a lot more often than 20%. Also, I think I'm being generous by giving you a 15% higher chance of cashing if you win 2400 chips, so that's debatable as well.
If we assume he calls with a random hand, we can get an exact estimation for how far ahead we are with something like PokerStove, but 60-40 is fine.
Then, if we are certain you will cash if you win the hand, the EV of pushing is (0.60)(32) + (0.40)(-5.5) = $17, which is still less than the $22.63 you expect to make by folding.
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 5:24 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
| Quote: | | I don't see how the extra blind will help "a lot more." |
It might not improve our chances of just cashing significantly, but it will likely mean that we earn a bit more when we DO cash. I just think calling and hoping for a good flop is a terrible idea when our stack is this short. If we flop a pair, push, and get called, we're probably still not in great shape. Either push preflop, or save the chips.
Also, in my above calculation, the EV of cashing is probably slightly higher if we double up, since we will probably make more than the minimum cash most of the time. Still, I'm willing to stick my neck out there and say that we're still better off folding simply because of the 3 extremely short players, it is incredibly likely at least two of them will go broke before we do. If you fold here, you still have a realistic shot of winning the tournament provided you get a little lucky. I hardly think this is a "make or break" moment.
Posted Tue May 15, 2007 2:38 am GMT by Eusebio
| Quote: | | However, since you have invested $5.50, you should consider the value of cashing only $32, not $37.50. |
I did calculate the winnings without the Tournamentbuyin, but i subtracted it afterwards.
I think you overestimate your chances when you fold:
| Quote: | | (0.60)(32) + (0.40)(-5.5) = $17 |
With your smallstack of 5k you wont be able to cash 32$ on avg. you will probably just become 4th (i made the other error, i underestimated it). If you cash you will then win an avg of 15,75$ (4th+5th+6th/3)
so your (folding-)formula has to be:
0.75x15.75 + 0.25x(-5.5)=
=11.8125 + (-1.375)= 10,44$
So even to your calculations, where you count with a coinflip, the expectation of making more money is higher if you push...
If you take the 60:40 (or 61,57:36.12 i will not calculate it again now but the 1,57% difference and the fact that we didnt calculate a tie, gives us even more $$$ i the end) you get a result of 17$ which is almost 63% difference...
So a push brings you 63% more $$$.
PS: This calculation is based on one game, see that i calculated before with 10 games up there and got a 170$ profit (170/10=17$). I misscalculated the fold-case, since I just assumed that if we cash we are going to go out 6th, which wont be true of course. and I wouldnt even calculate it that pessimistic, saying that if we fold we can fold us into the money about 90% of the time which would be
0.90x15.75 + 0.10x(-5.5)=
14.175 + (-0.55) = 13.27$
But still: The push brings me around 30% more money...
Q.E.D. 
Is my assumption right now?
| Quote: | | Firstly - Great Post ! |
If you mean me: Thanks
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