Did I pick the wrong time to squeeze? |
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Posted Mon May 14, 2007 12:43 pm GMT by AHBrownell
This hand came up this weekend. At the time I was about 8k under the average chip stack, but hardly in a dire situation. I could easily have afforded to fold, but this seemed like too good an opportunity to pass up. After looking at the math involved it seems like I may have priced him in to call with many hands, but I'm not sure if this can be outweighed by the threat of elimination. Did I pick the wrong spot to squeeze?
In my experience, usually a player who calls a raise at these blind levels has a hand that is semi-strong, but not strong enough to raise. (I read him correctly, in that he had a hand that wasn't strong enough to reraise.)
The idea behind my play was that if it worked, I could essentially double up without seeing a flop. I was hoping he had a hand like AQ-AT, KQ-KJ, 22-TT, which might call, but I would generally be drawing very live against AND if he did call, I'd have a chance to more than double up around 40% of the time.
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Full Tilt Poker Game #2419730145: FTOPS Event #3 (15942234), Table 56 - 1000/2000 Ante 250 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:27:49 ET - 2007/05/13
Seat 1: PureCash25 (40,961)
Seat 2: 6 feet under (8,136)
Seat 3: njrepp25 (6,576)
Seat 4: KNMPOKER (21,620)
Seat 5: Belsebub (16,095)
Seat 6: 9SPOT (22,746)
Seat 7: bowvitch (35,686)
Seat 8: SirWatts (23,417)
Seat 9: D_Realla (18,996)
PureCash25 antes 250
6 feet under antes 250
njrepp25 antes 250
KNMPOKER antes 250
Belsebub antes 250
9SPOT antes 250
bowvitch antes 250
SirWatts antes 250
D_Realla antes 250
KNMPOKER posts the small blind of 1,000
Belsebub posts the big blind of 2,000
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KNMPOKER  
9SPOT folds
bowvitch raises to 6,000
SirWatts folds
D_Realla calls 6,000
PureCash25 folds
6 feet under folds
njrepp25 folds
KNMPOKER has 15 seconds left to act
KNMPOKER raises to 21,370, and is all in
Belsebub folds
bowvitch: YOU JERK
bowvitch has 15 seconds left to act
bowvitch folds
D_Realla calls 12,746, and is all in
KNMPOKER shows
D_Realla shows  
Uncalled bet of 2,624 returned to KNMPOKER
*** FLOP ***   
*** TURN *** 
*** RIVER *** 
KNMPOKER shows Queen Nine high
D_Realla shows a pair of Nines
D_Realla wins the pot (47,742) with a pair of Nines
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 47,742 | Rake 0
Board:
Seat 1: PureCash25 folded before the Flop
Seat 2: 6 feet under folded before the Flop
Seat 3: njrepp25 (button) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: KNMPOKER (small blind) showed and lost with Queen Nine high
Seat 5: Belsebub (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: 9SPOT folded before the Flop
Seat 7: bowvitch folded before the Flop
Seat 8: SirWatts folded before the Flop
Seat 9: D_Realla showed and won (47,742) with a pair of Nines
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Of course he flipped over the absolute nuts against my hand, which obviously sucked. But I don't want to be affected by the results, as much as - is this a good or bad play?
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Posted Mon May 14, 2007 12:52 pm GMT by Dave B
Looks like a great spot to fold preflop. Heads up, maybe. But with a good raise and a caller who put in 1/3 of their chips on a cold call, I dont see what hand they would call with and then lay down here.
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 1:49 pm GMT by AHBrownell
Yah Dave, I think you are probably right. I probably should have folded.
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 2:10 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
It might be a favorable time to squeeze against someone other than a player who already has 1/3 of his stack invested, as Dave said. He can hardly fold 72 for the price you are laying him.
IMO, players are using the squeeze play FAR too often these days. It works best with medium-size stacks, when you are perceived as tight, against two loose players who have strong reasons to fold. My guess is that those criteria do not come up very often, and they are certainly not satisfied here.
Getting squeezed in tournaments is becoming so common in the middle levels of a tournament that I advocate smooth calling with AA or KK much more frequently than I used to.
Posted Mon May 14, 2007 4:08 pm GMT by AHBrownell
Interesting points Diamond. When this hand was over, I started thinking about the same thing. Its a great idea to call with very strong hands against a table with good players who might be tempted to squeeze.
You still would be risking your tournament, but at least you are doing it with the nuts.
Posted Tue May 15, 2007 12:52 pm GMT by AHBrownell
Posted this on the forum over at pocket fives dot com and they also agreed. This was a stupid play. Guess I need to work on my application of this play big time.
Posted Tue May 15, 2007 3:37 pm GMT by Muck
Your M is about 4-5.
In that situation I wouldn’t get clever with squeeze plays. In fact never mind raisers I’d be hoping no one even limps, just so my push has less chance of a caller.
Posted Tue May 15, 2007 6:03 pm GMT by MrDarling
its actually a little over 6 - but good point. when the blinds / stacks size are this small people will gamble a lot more with marginal hands.
Not to mention your stack, their stack is also have to be big enough that it will NOT hurt more to fold then to call and gamble.
Posted Tue May 15, 2007 10:39 pm GMT by exit music
nope, his M is 4.12
2000+1000+(250x9)=5250
21620/5250=4.118095~
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