Metagame & Dice...and maybe poker too. |
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Posted Wed May 16, 2007 12:18 am GMT by tame_deuces
This is a reflection I did a while ago that fired back into my brain when I read a post by Muck about Rock, Paper, Scissors.
Now, this is mostly for those of us who sometimes attend games with a fair degree of regulars in them.
It started once when I was asked to program a simple 'gambling game' for an oldfashioned online game world. Since it didn't need to be anything advanced (as it would hardly be used anyway) I just coded a simple dice based game I called 'Three is the charm'.
Basically the dealer throws 2 dice three times and the remaining players have to guess a number in advance that will come off. As you can see its a painfully simple game, the best chance of getting the right number will always to be to bet on 7.
Maybe some of you don't know why,if so it is easily explained in a two-sided matrix, fill in the sums and count the number of combinations and you see why:
-1 2 3 4 5 6
1
2
3
4
5
6
(It is the same reasoning that makes AKo a more probable hand than AKs, etc.)
Now we get to where metagame comes in. As you know metagame in poker will simply mean you partially justify a move based on creating an image and manipulating your opponents.
Imagine if you are constantly betting on seven in this simple game. All the time your other regulars are gambling it up and betting on the most atrocious of numbers while you are silently sitting there...always betting on 7. To put it in perspective, betting on 7 is what a general guideline that don't take the 'playing the man' aspect into the game at all would suggest.
If you think about this, do we honestly believe that this is actually the tactic for maximizing our profit from this game in the long run?
I mean, in a worst case scenario we might actually be teaching the other players how to play this game perfectly. (And imagine if you actually tell them its best to bet on seven after a throw, or berate them for not betting on seven...like some of us pokerplayers can do at a table) You can effectively be killing your own profits, which in this dice game _only_ come from sucker bets.
Its really the ultimate metagame, imagine if you would how you would bet your throws to manipulate the others, as in this simple game that is the only viable option you have for a long run profit (that and stay away from playing anyone who knows basic probability.  ).
Now as you might imagine, I only write about this game to put light on poker. Poker is a helluva lot more complex than this little game, but still there is a certain truth in that most of what we do at a poker table is very easy. We bet for value and we fold most longshots.
My point is that in a regular game you do want to do these things, but at the same point I think it is important - like on our imaginary dice game - to lay a little low. Don't create the impression of being the guy who knows what he is doing, don't play in completely predictable patterns and sometimes try to hide what is the 'best play' in a given situation...people can learn from what we do, and if they do, then our profits shrink. At the same time we have to balance it up to a degree where can actually take the best bets (in our dicegame the analogy would be the times we actually bet on 7...or the second best number, or whatnot).
In our dicegame we can partially resolve this by taking less profitable bets in exchange for more long term profits. How can we do this in a pokergame?
If anyone wants to pick up the ball, maybe you want to share some thoughts about how you would influence players in our simple dicegame or maybe how you can influence players in a pokergame. Do you think anything usable carries over from the simple dicegame to the pokertable, and if so...what?
Or maybe this is a subject which interests noone, which I think would be a shame. Its always to cool to think about poker in the light of simpler games.
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Posted Wed May 16, 2007 1:14 am GMT by Phil14312
Great post.
Definately no strategy talk at a table. I know I won't be up against a real good player if they are talking strategy at the table, not only are you making other player's better, but if they will be scrutinized after a hand is over, they are going to play more optimally.
I think that just gabbing it up a little, making a loose call, ordering a beer, joking around etc. can do tons for your table image. It doesn't mean you have to play like your loose opponents, you just have to make them think you are.
Posted Wed May 16, 2007 10:16 am GMT by suitedaces84
I know this is off topic, but how exactly does the game work? How many players are there? Is everyone playing against each other or is everyone playing against the house? Are two players allowed to bet on the same number? Do you get to see who bet on what before betting or are all the bets placed at the same time?
If you're playing against other players who are familiar with basic probability and only basic probability the best strategy may be betting on a number other than 7. This idea also relates to poker.
Nice post, btw.
Posted Wed May 16, 2007 1:49 pm GMT by supafrey
The best strategy would probably be a variation of a "friendly tit-for-tat" that Dawkins speaks about in The Selfish Gene.
Assuming that bets are done in secret until all are revealed at once, I'd wager on 7 first. Looking at the other people's bets would quickly determine whether they have any idea what they're doing, and if they do, the best bet would probably be an "abc" style of just betting on 7 every time.
If they seem to be lost to the idea of strategy, I'd probably cycle between 6, 7, and 8 and say that they're my lucky numbers or something. I'd be giving up minimal odds to keep the optimal betting point somewhat secret.
The beauty of poker is that you can hide the "best play" within the hundreds of possible variants within each betting round... most people quickly figure out dice.
Posted Fri May 18, 2007 9:58 pm GMT by tame_deuces
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | I know this is off topic, but how exactly does the game work? How many players are there? Is everyone playing against each other or is everyone playing against the house? Are two players allowed to bet on the same number? Do you get to see who bet on what before betting or are all the bets placed at the same time? |
In the version I made, the dice travel like the button in a poker game. All players besides the thrower chose a number and place their bets. The numbers are revealed and the dice are rolled. Anyone getting their numbers rolled in one or more of the throws get paid double their wager from the current 'dealer'. Sucker bets against the house when on the 'button' is what the earnings can come from.
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