Posted Fri May 18, 2007 10:41 am GMT by AHBrownell
Last night this hand came up - what do we do here?
Hero has $120 before the hand starts.
Villian 1 has $5.50
Villian 2 has $62
Hero has K Q on the button.
Villian 1 is the SB
Villian 2 is in middle position.
Villian 2 raises to $2.50.
Middle position player calls.
Hero calls.
The Villian 1 moves allin for $5.50.
Villian 2 calls.
Middle position folds.
Hero calls.
Pot = $20
Flop comes AQ J
Villian 2 bets $20.
Hero: ?
---
Notice that we have little to no folding equity on raising Villian 2's bet on the flop (based on his remaining stack size), but we have lots of outs. Some of our outs have implied odds, but others do not.
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Posted Fri May 18, 2007 11:14 am GMT by MrDarling
surprisingly, there is not much you are really in front of right now.
You are a coin flip with most big A's (and they are slightly ahead)
You are really just in front of hands like KJ or QJ, but they will not be stupid enough to play it that fast on this board, will they?
So you are 2.3-1 against winning on average. the pot only gives you 2-1.
Man, I'm lost here.
Posted Fri May 18, 2007 11:42 am GMT by Sean_in_NJ
Just stick it in. You could have as many as 14 outs with two cards to come: 2 Q's, 4 T's, 8 remaining . You're drawing to the nuts with 12 of them.
I'm actually pretty happy I have zero fold equity. I want a call.
Posted Fri May 18, 2007 1:28 pm GMT by golddog
Fourteen outs twice? Sign me up.
I'm guessing set, trying to push out straight & flush draws.
Posted Fri May 18, 2007 3:03 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Despite the fact that we're probably not ahead of anything right now, this is another one of those times where we absolutely can't fold, because shoving in is still a better option than folding as far as EV goes. We potentially have a huge number of outs, and getting 2-to-1, we're actually getting about the right price to go with just the nut heart draw, let alone any additional outs we likely have.
Posted Fri May 18, 2007 11:09 pm GMT by snoogins47
| Sean_in_NJ wrote: | | I'm actually pretty happy I have zero fold equity. I want a call. |
Why do you want a call?
Posted Sat May 19, 2007 2:00 am GMT by MrDarling
I still don't get it. This is one of those rare times when our pair+flush draw is behind villain range.
This is like happily happily shoving AK against any pocket pair. Though its almost coin flip, we are behind. Which means we will lose more often then win.
If we could add even the smallest % of FE and another small % of villain having a under pair then the push might be 0 EV , but I can't see it being +EV...
At least not by a lot .
Posted Sat May 19, 2007 2:07 am GMT by MrDarling
brw , the other day I had   in the BB and decided to call a min raise from MP (along with 4 other player)
flop was   
I put that player on a big hand, (some of those nits, you know they always min raise with monster) she bet the flop, and I c/r 5X her bet.
she called, I push her AI on UI turn (she had not much left) I didn't improve and her K's held.
In this hand I am ahead of her range, so I think my play was correct.
Posted Sat May 19, 2007 2:18 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
| MrDarling wrote: | I still don't get it. This is one of those rare times when our pair+flush draw is behind villain range.
This is like happily happily shoving AK against any pocket pair. Though its almost coin flip, we are behind. Which means we will lose more often then win.
If we could add even the smallest % of FE and another small % of villain having a under pair then the push might be 0 EV , but I can't see it being +EV...
At least not by a lot . |
Unless there is already money in the pot that compensates our taking slightly the worst of it, like is the case here. And sometimes (this comes up a lot in limit), between three options: folding, calling, or raising, potentially all three can be losing bets, but calling might still be better than folding (or raising might be better than calling, etc) because it has better EV (put another way, it has -EV, but not as much -EV as another option).
Situations like this often come up when you are already heavily invested in a large pot where even though you are taking the worst of it equity-wise, your equity is good enough that the pot has become a black hole--you simply can't escape, because folding (thus sacrificing your equity in the pot) is worse than calling/raising, given that there is already money in the pot and you are being given odds to compensate for your reduced equity.
In a vacuum, racing AK vs. a pair all day is a losing bet. But if you were getting 3-to-2 on your money in the same race, you would be a fool not to play. Similarly, if the pot were already large enough that you're being given a similar price, you don't mind taking slightly the worst of it.
I think I just said the same thing like 3 different times... sorry about the redundancy.
Posted Sat May 19, 2007 12:17 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| snoogins47 wrote: | | Sean_in_NJ wrote: | | I'm actually pretty happy I have zero fold equity. I want a call. |
Why do you want a call? |
More monies for me when I suck out. 
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