$5 MTT: Straight vs. possible flush draw |
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Posted Fri May 25, 2007 9:51 am GMT by Kalbelgarion
In this hand, both villains are fairly loose. Villain #1 is loose, but tighter post-flop. Villain #2 is loose both pre- and post-flop.
Villain #1 has called a PF all-in on the second hand with A9o, limped then called a 8x BB raise PF with K9o, Called another person's all-in for 1/4th of his stack on an A-high flop with KQ, and called a 6x BB PF raise with KQ.
Villain #2 has called a pot-sized turn bet on 92JJ board with 66 and called a 1/2 pot bet on a 26Q board with A6.
All in all, this table has been very, very passive.
PokerStars Game #10096463487: Tournament #50597481, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2007/05/25 - 09:43:25 (ET)
Table '50597481 28' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: oldjacek (1880 in chips)
Seat 2: Kalbelgarion (3435 in chips)
Seat 3: bigbirdMNSTR (1285 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 4: Quichotte (1645 in chips)
Seat 5: grayggr (1300 in chips)
Seat 6: Villain #2 (2930 in chips)
Seat 7: Dante2004 (1340 in chips)
Seat 8: Villain #1 (2375 in chips)
Seat 9: seb54200 (2010 in chips)
Quichotte: posts small blind 25
grayggr: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Kalbelgarion J Q
Villain #2: calls 50
Dante2004: folds
Villain #1: calls 50
seb54200: folds
oldjacek: folds
Kalbelgarion: calls 50
bigbirdMNSTR: folds
Quichotte: calls 25
grayggr: checks
*** FLOP *** 9 T 4
Quichotte: checks
grayggr: checks
Villain #2: bets 150
Villain #1: calls 150
Kalbelgarion: calls 150
Quichotte: folds
grayggr: folds
*** TURN *** 9 T 4 8
Villain #2: bets 250
Villain #1: calls 250
Kalbelgarion: ???
Since he's taking the lead here on two streets in a row, Villain #2 might have a completed hand right now. Based on his earlier inability to lay down any pair, he could very well have just a pair or two pair.
Villain #1 seems to be on a drawing hand based on his calls. Based on his history of loose pre-flop calls, he could have 78, QJ, or KQ. He could also have one club, although I think he's just as likely to chase a flush draw with the J or T than the A or K.
I think it's more likely that we're ahead here than behind. Do you agree? And what should our play be here?
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Posted Fri May 25, 2007 9:59 am GMT by MrDarling
Risky.
I don't see how you call someone who call's a huge bet with 3PTK tight post flop.
Its a crappy spot. there is a chance villain 2 already have a flush, in this case you have 7 outs to improve on his small flush. Though if he is any good, he will bet more to make higher clubs pay to draw.
now, you know you probably have very little fold equity - unless you push.
I think, if you make a small raise , you might find out where villain 2 stand. but by then more then 1/3 of your stack are in... and if they call and another club hit you have no idea where you are.
So I say, push. if a smaller flush call, you have outs.
Damn, I suck at MTT's 
Posted Fri May 25, 2007 10:09 am GMT by Kalbelgarion
Well, at this point, I have 3200 in chips left, and the pot's only 1200. If I raise all-in, sure it prices out anyone still chasing the flush, but I think it unnecessarily puts too much of my stack at risk.
Someone with one club only has less than a 20% chance of hitting his flush on the river. So I can price him/them out with a smaller bet, right?
Posted Sun May 27, 2007 6:29 pm GMT by Jefecaminador
Raise to 650. This should be enough to get a made flush to push over the top of you so you can safely fold. If they both just call, you're almost 100% sure to be ahead. If the river comes a blank you can fire another 700 into the pot. If its something scary like pairing the board, or a club lower than your queen, then you can just check behind if checked to on the river.
Posted Tue May 29, 2007 12:34 pm GMT by Jauron
My first thought on seeing the flop was how tough each street was gonna be if we improve. I'd have considered raising the flop with position.
The turn gives us our tough decision, I think I raise to 1000-1200 and see what happens. We COULD fold if villain(s) move in (although the shorter of the 2 stacks is gonna make this near impossible to want to), and could also justify a call if we felt they'd make the same move with a non flush.
IMO this kind of hand is much easier to play heads up, which is why I like the flop raise more. Having two villains with that turn is making me squirm a bit.
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