folding over pair fearing a set? |
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Posted Mon May 28, 2007 4:44 am GMT by MrDarling
This came up recently, Do we fold an over pair when the only hands that can beat us (and make sense) is a set?
Lets assume effective stacks 100XBB
Lets say you have Q's on the btn. MP limp and you raise.MP call.
Flop comes all under, rainbow and not really connected. So no obvious 2 pairs also.
Pot 9.5XBB
You c-bet (7XBB), SB fold and MP c/r (18XBB). Obviously you call. He might just have TPTK or something like that.
Pot 45.5XBB
Turn is another blank. Again no obvious str8 or 2 pair and MP lead 1/2 pot.
Hero?
If you call this, chances are the rest of the stack is going in on the river...
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Posted Mon May 28, 2007 6:02 am GMT by tame_deuces
You fold it when you think the chances of him having anything else are so small that getting your money in is probably unprofitable.
So if he can play TP/draws/whatever the same way, then ofcourse you don't fold an overpair.
You don't fold 'just to be safe' like alot of pokerplayers tend to do. 'Just to be safe' is as bad a poker motto as 'I'm due'.
Posted Mon May 28, 2007 6:56 am GMT by gumbie
This kind of thing really depends on how you see the villain how he sees you and how he thinks you see him.
Overpairs facing resistance from decent players is one of the tougher spots to be in.
QQ is particularly hard.
In the case you mention he could have a smaller overpair. It gets rather complicted.
Posted Sat Jun 02, 2007 12:42 am GMT by Cyberhwk
| gumbie wrote: | | In the case you mention he could have a smaller overpair. It gets rather complicted. |
Exactly. That's where I'm putting him too.
AA or KK, why isn't he getting his money in pre-flop? He knows he's got a customer. Flop comes unders he thinks that's the flop her wants.
I think he's sitting JJ or TT. He put you on AK with your re-raise and assumed you were going to continuation bet. Now that the pot was big enough he's going to try to take it down.
Posted Sat Jun 02, 2007 5:16 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
The fact that our call on the flop didn't freeze him worries me fairly significantly.
This is extremely player dependent, but you are correct to think that this is at least the type of situation where folding an overpair can easily be correct.
I wish I could give a simple answer, but this is really one of those super-marginal situations you need a lot of instinct to feel your way through.
Posted Mon Jun 04, 2007 12:29 pm GMT by AHBrownell
I think a check-raise on a rainbow, disconnected flop is a very strong indication that you are beat. If I was short - I'd probably just go with it. But as stated - with 100 BBs, I probably fold on the flop --- ESPECIALLY with QQ. If I have AA, I might get into more trouble here, but with QQ, what if you have a guy getting sneaky with a AA or KK hand OR a set. It's just not worth it!
The big problem of course is one where you have a player who likes to check-raise whenever they think you missed. If you raise preflop, people tend to put you on AK (so according to them - this flop missed you), if I get reraised or check-raised on a flop like this, I'm inclined to reraise on the flop. I can raise an amount that allows me to fold. If I call and he leads out on the turn AND I'm just gonna fold, why bother calling the flop? I think its better to reraise on the flop or fold it. Now if they call my reraise on the flop, I'm hoping to get a check on the turn, which I'll check behind (if I'm out of position, I'm screwed) - I'm basically shutting down. I want a showdown as cheap as I can get it...
Posted Mon Jun 04, 2007 2:03 pm GMT by kingetje
folding the QQ to a check raise immediately is way too weak i think.... like you said some will check raise your C-bet with anything
i like the 3-bet on the flop with QQ in that spot. if you get repopped its time to get out.. if you get just called its re-evaluating time on the turn and try to control the pot size... if alot of action ensues still... its ugly 
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