Posted Sat Jun 02, 2007 5:51 pm GMT by Eusebio
Got a new notebook and forgot to store the hh on FT
NL25
EP limps (plays a lot of Pots) has about 25$
MP raises to 1$ (TAG) has about 40$
I am in the SB with AQs and have about 28$
EP calls as well
Flop comes 66Q rainbow
I lead out with 2$
EP calls
MP raises to 4$
I call, so does EP
Turn comes a deuce and puts a possible flushdraw out there (not mine)
I check (probably a mistake, should have led out with half the pot i think porthand)
EP checks
MP bets 10$
ME?
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Posted Sat Jun 02, 2007 6:00 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
As played, probably fold. Good chance a TAG player has a big pair here and has shown nothing but strength.
Posted Sun Jun 03, 2007 5:09 am GMT by Concussed
I'd fold too at this point.
Posted Sun Jun 03, 2007 5:18 am GMT by Eusebio
I did fold...
What do you think about the turncheck.
Wouldnt it be better to fold to a flop reraise if i cant call a big turnbet?
Or should I lead out on the turn, eventhough its quite expensive?
Posted Sun Jun 03, 2007 9:07 pm GMT by gumbie
don't call a tag raise oop with aq
Posted Tue Jun 05, 2007 6:58 am GMT by Cyberhwk
I'm worried about EP, not TAG. Was he skillfully playing a lot of pots?
Limps, calls the raise. Calls your post flop raise, then flat-calls the RE-RAISE.
He ain't scared and he's not going anywhere. Not sure if he got there on the flop or the turn, but I think he's there.
I like the turn check, because I think your behind if you're still three handed at this point. Depending on my read I might have considered a re-raise pre-flop though. Get EP out and test how good TAG really is.
Posted Tue Jun 05, 2007 9:26 am GMT by Eusebio
he was a calling station  so i wasnt afraid of him (if i remember right, he answered the question why he called a bet on a rainbowflop, with something like: i was hoping for the flush).
A reraise...mmhhmmm I have a mediocre hand and i am oop against a TAG player... that smells like trouble...
Lets say I reraise him to 3$ and he calls...
I have to lead out on the flop for about 2/3 of the pot... making the pot "huge" (about 40xBB)... if he raises me can i really get away then?
I have 18$ left, before I call the reraise... 14$ after the call and then I am definatly potcommited.
Alos I´d have to call a minraise on the flop offering me 4,5:1... and with just 14$ left and a 22$ pot, I dont even have much foldequity on the turn or river.
I´ll try to calculate, probably we can get an exact result
Posted Tue Jun 05, 2007 9:57 am GMT by Cyberhwk
| Eusebio wrote: | | he was a calling station so i wasnt afraid of him (if i remember right, he answered the question why he called a bet on a rainbowflop, with something like: i was hoping for the flush). |
Oh. Nevermind then.  Games around my area are different in that there's quite a few who will play any two, but play them extremely well. Saw a guy take down a $80 pot playing 2-10 spread with 4 high the other day.
| Quote: | | A reraise...mmhhmmm I have a mediocre hand and i am oop against a TAG player... that smells like trouble... |
While AQs is not premium, it's not worthless either and I would personally like to end it right then and there instead of trying to take out the TAG player out of position. At least you know where you are with a re-raise.
And did you eventually see his hand? The more I think about it the more I put him on AQ too.
| Quote: | Lets say I reraise him to 3$ and he calls...
I have to lead out on the flop for about 2/3 of the pot... making the pot "huge" (about 40xBB)... if he raises me can i really get away then? |
What hand would he re-raise you with at that point that didn't have you beat. That's a fold.
Re-raise preflop and if he STILL comes with you can narrow him down to AA, KK, or AK IMO.
So yeah, my line is re-raise to ~$2.50 preflop (yes, I know it's not a big RR but I think it gets the job done. Then with ~$6 in the pot lead out for $4. This way you could get away from the hand for $6.50. As it were, you were already in $6 and were considering a $7 -$8 bet on the turn.
You're in the same amount, I'd just argue that the re-raise and C-bet gets him to fold AQ and AK respectively.
Then again I'm not very good at this game. 
Posted Tue Jun 05, 2007 10:05 am GMT by Eusebio
ok... have it through
Lets say I checkraise all-in on the turn (halfway through he calculations i saw that i was calculating with a stack of 25$, not 28$, but lets leave it like this.
I assumed that he could have those hands(ignoring EP)
3x AA
6x KK
1x QQ
12x AK
18x lowerpair (99-JJ
12x KQ
6x AQ
=58 hands
So about 15,51% of the time i am up against a higher pair (95%dog)
1,72% i am drawing dead
20.69% of the time I have him dominated (94%fav)
51,72% he would fold to a checkraise on the turn (99-JJ AK)
10.34% we would tie (AQ)
I figuered that a push would bring here on avg. about 8,40$
Thats a lot! thats a third of a buy in... wouldnt have thought that before...
Actually now i also see the hand a bit different... he min-reraised 2 opponents on the flop... that could be a probebet... both called and showed weakness on the turn... thats where he saw his chance to take the pot with a huge raise...
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