Posted Thu Jun 14, 2007 7:00 am GMT by Markstorm
I read on a website that to decide whether to call, you compare your % chance of winning to the ratio pot:bet. If your chance to win is higher than pot divided by the bet you need to call, then you should call.
The author, however, calculated the % chance of making your draw (flush,straight,etc.) on EITHER the turn or the river. For example, if you have 4 of the same suit on the flop, you have a ~36% of making your flush and thus you should call any bet for which pot/bet < .36.
But since you are paying to see the turn and not the river, shouldn't your % chance be ~18%, that is, the chance of you making the flush on the turn? This is assuming that you may be forced to pay on the turn again to see the flush, and by then you may be paying a much larger sum.
Comments, please.
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Posted Thu Jun 14, 2007 7:11 am GMT by poker_bill
That 36% is valid if you plan to see both the turn and the river regardless. If you only plan to see the turn, then 18% is the valid number.
If you're playing limit hold'em, then you're almost definitely going to call to the river, assuming you can get in for 1 bet on the turn if you miss.
In no limit, it's going to depend on a lot of things, like stack sizes, your table image, position, and the other players style.
Posted Thu Jun 14, 2007 11:57 am GMT by Gunslinger
You are correct, Mark, to see just the turn card you need to be getting 4:1 odds (18%), because you might face another bet to see the river if you miss. You use the 2:1 odds for a flush draw (36%) if your opponent's flop bet puts either of you all-in, meaning you are guaranteed to see the next two cards.
There are some more advanced considerations. You can call getting smaller odds than you need if you feel your opponent will still pay you off if you hit your draw, this is implied odds. In limit, if you have 3 or more opponents, you can raise a flush draw in position for value, because you're putting in 25% or less of the money, but your pot equity is 36% (your chance of hitting your draw). This could help you see the river for free as well.
But in basic full stack no limit play, make sure you have the odds to call for the next card only.
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