Posted Fri Jun 15, 2007 9:27 am GMT by Gogie
I'm going to show you a hand history from last night that knocked me out of the $7K guaranteed bounty on UB. This was the latter stages of the tourney and my stack was getting down (note that the blinds were up to 150-300). If I win this hand, however, I'm in pretty good position to cash. I'm not putting it in the Bad Beat section of this site because I don't bother talking about bad beats anymore - they happen, it's life. However, I'd like your comments on the hand, taking into consideration the commentary that took place after the hand. I've only included a bit of the commentary; it carried on for quite awhile. I'll add my 2 cents worth after I hear from some of you - I don't want to colour anyone's opinions.
Note that I've had to edit the history a bit to make it readable (I had to get it from UB by email). I've put in the actual amount of chips that went into the pot with each action so that you can easily add up the pot size as the betting progresses.
Hand #43471743-120 at Thu730pmBounty-007 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)
Started at 14/Jun/07 21:30:30
hildabe is at seat 0 with 13930.
KingOfFartz is at seat 1 with 3125.
krazynuttz23 is at seat 2 with 6495.
raaazib is at seat 3 with 3620.
Jeff H is at seat 4 with 4485.
classyploppy is at seat 5 with 3145.
Chipneeder is at seat 7 with 9990.
Gogie is at seat 8 with 2975.
minnie13 is at seat 9 with 5240.
The button is at seat 5.
hildabe posts ante (25).
KingOfFartz posts ante (25).
krazynuttz23 posts ante (25).
raaazib posts ante (25).
Jeff H posts ante (25).
classyploppy posts ante (25).
Chipneeder posts ante (25).
Gogie posts ante (25).
minnie13 posts ante (25).
The button is moved to seat 7.
Gogie posts the small blind of 150.
minnie13 posts the big blind of 300.
Gogie is dealt: Qh Qc
Pre-flop:
hildabe folds.
KingOfFartz calls 300.
krazynuttz23 folds.
raaazib folds.
Jeff H calls 300.
classyploppy calls 300.
Chipneeder folds.
Gogie goes all-in for 2800.
minnie13 folds.
KingOfFartz folds.
Jeff H calls 2650.
classyploppy goes all-in for 2820.
Jeff H calls 170.
Tournament all-in showdown -- players show:
Jeff H shows 6d 6h. (9.11% to win)
classyploppy shows 6c 7c. (15.23% to win)
Gogie shows Qh Qc. (73.74% to win)
flop: 2c 8c 3h
Flop (board: 2c 8c 3h):
(no action in this round)
classyploppy says "pot odds". (when he pushed, he was putting 2820 chips into a pot that, assuming Jeff H called {which was a given} totalled 6895 chips. By my calculation, classyploppy was getting odds of 2.5 to 1)
turn card: 5s
Turn (board: 2c 8c 3h 5s):
(no action in this round)
river card: 3c
River (board: 2c 8c 3h 5s 3c):
(no action in this round)
Showdown:
Jeff H has 6d 6h 8c 3h 3c: two pair, sixes and threes.
classyploppy has 6c 7c 2c 8c 3c: flush, eight high.
Gogie has Qh Qc 8c 3h 3c: two pair, queens and threes.
Hand #43471743-120 Summary:
No rake is taken for this hand.
classyploppy wins the main pot 9675 with flush, eight high.
classyploppy wins the side pot 340 with flush, eight high.
Hand 43471743-120 ends.
Gogie is eliminated.
Hand 43471743-121 begins.
krazynuttz23 says "that was disgusting".
classyploppy says "pot odds man".
krazynuttz23 says "pot odds".
Sandman_Good (obs) says "yup".
krazynuttz23 says "shut the fu.ck up".
classyploppy says "had too".
krazynuttz23 says "had too".
krazynuttz23 says "kiss my as.s".
raaazib says "67 suited nh".
Sandman_Good (obs) says "lmao".
raaazib says "):".
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Posted Fri Jun 15, 2007 10:15 am GMT by Kalbelgarion
Well, you made the right play, no question about that.
But 67 guy was wrong just about any way you look at it. His M is under 7, so he shouldn't even be limping with suited connectors, much less calling an all-in and a call for all his chips.
The only way his action might possibly be justified is if you and the other caller were wild players who were betting and re-raising with any two cards. Then, he might finally make a stand. But even then it's a stretch to justify calling with 67.
Posted Fri Jun 15, 2007 10:37 am GMT by Dave B
pot odds
Posted Fri Jun 15, 2007 12:57 pm GMT by Gogie
OK, let's talk about "pot odds" in this situation. When ploppy decided to push, his pot odds were a little less than 2.5 to 1 (it was costing him 2820 chips when the pot contained 6895 chips). Looking at the possible hands he had to figure he was up against, I'm not sure he was getting proper odds to call. He had to assume that at best one of the two all-ins in front of him had one over card and one under card to his hand and the other had two over cards. For arguments sake, let's assume I had A4os and Jeff had A9os, with neither holding a club. This would have to be the very best possible scenario ploppy could hope for. In this case he would be a 42.9% favourite to win the hand, so he would be getting proper odds.
However, let's assume a more likely scenario - one of the two all-ins has an overpair and the other has two over cards. How about I have AsJh and Jeff has JdJs. In this case, ploppy's win % drops to 24.8%, or 3 to 1 against. It's close, but he's not getting proper odds. Any two hands where one is an over pair and the other is two overcards gives roughly the same odds. I think someone in ploppy's position has to be figuring he's up against at least an overpair and two overcards, so he's not getting the right odds to make this call.
The one thing that does make sense is when you factor in his stack size and the stage we're at in the tournament. He's getting close to the point where he has to start looking for a hand to push. However, I don't think the time to push is when two players in front of you have already pushed and are only slightly smaller stack sizes - doesn't gap theory mean anything?
In summary, I am of the opinion that classyploppy made a very poor play (of course, anytime I get beat I think the villain made a very poor play  ). Anyone else care to add their views?
Posted Fri Jun 15, 2007 1:40 pm GMT by MrDarling
I can see open pushing with SC when your M get small. but limping with them and calling a push is a horrible play, IMO.
But I'm a bad MTT player
Posted Fri Jun 15, 2007 1:41 pm GMT by Alaskadude
| Gogie wrote: | | ...Anyone else care to add their views? |
Pot odds, schmot odds. Even before the flop he was 100% to win the hand because, as everyone here should know by now...
A flush draw, (yes, even preflop) is the absolute nuts!
Unless it's me with two suited cards. Then it's four-flush time. 
Posted Fri Jun 15, 2007 4:27 pm GMT by gumbie
I like the call, he was realy unlucky the other guy had 66.
Posted Fri Jun 15, 2007 4:38 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Unless he is like dead sure that neither of you has an overpair (which he clearly isn't), even 3-to-1 isn't nearly good enough to call a push right there. He played it about the worst possible way.
Posted Fri Jun 15, 2007 6:57 pm GMT by gumbie
If they both have overpairs he is about 22% to win.
But if they have ak and aq for instance he is 40% to win. I like the call
Posted Sat Jun 16, 2007 3:06 am GMT by MrDarling
| gumbie wrote: | If they both have overpairs he is about 22% to win.
But if they have ak and aq for instance he is 40% to win. I like the call |
So with M still high enough to play poker, you like a call for your tournament life with 40% chance at best?
He is only 36% if both share a card. If they have different over cards he is down under the 30% chance..
Posted Sat Jun 16, 2007 3:38 am GMT by Jernej Zorec
i have to say i like plopys play a lot more than other villians
calling half your stack off with 66 is a lot worse then with 67s imo
and ploppy had a lot more decent odds
if u have PP at least with 67s u can hope for flush and to have 2 live cards, with 66 u need 2 outer
Posted Sat Jun 16, 2007 5:51 am GMT by gumbie
| MrDarling wrote: |
So with M still high enough to play poker, |
An M of 4 is no where near enough to play poker.
Posted Sat Jun 16, 2007 5:59 am GMT by supafrey
Why does every post here only use the best possible scenarios as their defense for their justification?
Someone plug a range into pokerstove and figure it out if you're just basing it on whether pot odds are good or not.
Personally, I don't limp with SC there, and tourney structure has a lot to say when it comes to whether i call the push.
Posted Sat Jun 16, 2007 10:15 am GMT by tame_deuces
------------equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.006% 27.88% 00.12% 5546268039 24727685.50 { 7c6c }
Hand 1: 33.431% 31.58% 01.85% 6281657670 368516587.00 { 77+, ATs+, KTs+, ATo+, KTo+ }
Hand 2: 38.564% 36.73% 01.83% 7307037408 364174658.50 { TT+, ATs+, KJs+, ATo+, KQo }
---
I have no ideas if handranges are liberal or not, one is just an idea of a tight 'dead money stealer' and the other of a bit donkey-ish limpcaller (they are not that different, just the play would be), the last one is 67c so this is seen from villain' eyes. Since I don't know how any of these people play its just a guess.
Like Supa said, you need to know the structure and some approximazation of chip worth to ponder this further.
However you twist and turn it, I think the initial limp is horrible though. But that's really an unrelated issue to debating the call.
Posted Sat Jun 16, 2007 4:19 pm GMT by General Sal
| supafrey wrote: | Why does every post here only use the best possible scenarios as their defense for their justification?
Someone plug a range into pokerstove and figure it out if you're just basing it on whether pot odds are good or not.
Personally, I don't limp with SC there, and tourney structure has a lot to say when it comes to whether i call the push. |
Just go with "pot odds"
That's actually a good suggestion.
Posted Sat Jun 16, 2007 4:41 pm GMT by General Sal
| tame_deuces wrote: | ------------equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.006% 27.88% 00.12% 5546268039 24727685.50 { 7c6c }
Hand 1: 33.431% 31.58% 01.85% 6281657670 368516587.00 { 77+, ATs+, KTs+, ATo+, KTo+ }
Hand 2: 38.564% 36.73% 01.83% 7307037408 364174658.50 { TT+, ATs+, KJs+, ATo+, KQo }
---
I have no ideas if handranges are liberal or not, one is just an idea of a tight 'dead money stealer' and the other of a bit donkey-ish limpcaller (they are not that different, just the play would be), the last one is 67c so this is seen from villain' eyes. Since I don't know how any of these people play its just a guess.
Like Supa said, you need to know the structure and some approximazation of chip worth to ponder this further.
However you twist and turn it, I think the initial limp is horrible though. But that's really an unrelated issue to debating the call. |
I guess if you wanna be really specific I think he needs pot odds of 2.7:1 to make the call correct. I kind of wish it was the KIng of Fartz to be involved in the hand.
Posted Sat Jun 16, 2007 5:07 pm GMT by Fat Tony
If he was willing to go broke with this hand he damn well shouldn't have been limping in. There's also more to consider than pot odds given that this was a tournament. Personally i'd want at least 3-1 as a minimum before pushing in that spot unless the blinds were getting huge. He had time to wait for a better spot to push as far as i'm concerned.
Posted Sat Jun 16, 2007 8:07 pm GMT by General Sal
You know I was thinking one thing to consider is that with a raise and a re-raise all-in you have to put one person on a decent pair. If you tighten up player # 3's hands to the top 5%, then in poker stove you'll find that he's got only 25% equity.
Posted Sun Jun 17, 2007 12:01 pm GMT by Gogie
| General Sal wrote: | | You know I was thinking one thing to consider is that with a raise and a re-raise all-in you have to put one person on a decent pair. If you tighten up player # 3's hands to the top 5%, then in poker stove you'll find that he's got only 25% equity. |
That's excactly was I was getting at when I mentioned "gap theory".
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