was this correct to chase? |
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Posted Sat Jun 16, 2007 1:59 pm GMT by Ensano
POKERSTARS GAME #10465700193: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/06/16 - 14:44:20 (ET)
Table 'Kiviuq V' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: eze18700 ($59.45 in chips)
Seat 2: Delara50 ($48.75 in chips)
Seat 3: CheckyChecky ($50.85 in chips)
Seat 4: regisseman ($27.15 in chips)
Seat 5: hinskin ($28 in chips)
Seat 6: kappes.ftw ($49 in chips)
Seat 7: Ensano ($49.50 in chips)
Seat 8: samsemilia ($49.75 in chips)
Seat 9: lalogo ($7.60 in chips)
eze18700: posts small blind $0.25
Delara50: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ensano  
CheckyChecky: folds
regisseman: folds
hinskin: folds
kappes.ftw: folds
Ensano: calls $0.50
samsemilia: folds
lalogo: calls $0.50
eze18700: calls $0.25
Delara50: checks
*** FLOP ***   
eze18700: checks
Delara50: checks
Ensano: checks
lalogo: checks
*** TURN *** 
eze18700: bets $2
Delara50: calls $2
Ensano: calls $2
lalogo: raises $5.10 to $7.10 and is all-in
eze18700: folds
Delara50: calls $5.10
Ensano: calls $5.10
*** RIVER *** 
Delara50: bets $5
Ensano: ?
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Posted Sun Jun 17, 2007 6:01 am GMT by poker_bill
Well, the turn card gives you 15 outs (9 diamonds, 3 nines, 3 aces). You are 2 to 1 against improving, which is pretty good odds.
Calling the $2 is right, you're getting 3:1 for your 2:1 hand. There's now $8 in the pot. That all in move and call by next player puts the pot at $18.20.
Now, for $5.10, you're getting about 3.5:1, which is still better than your 2:1 odds, so calling is correct, you're getting pot odds.
However, without knowing the other players, someone who keeps calling (Delara50) is either an idiot calling station that hit some part of the flop, or they're holding a monster. There is a straight possibility there, if they're holding 7 - 9, you need the flush to win, if they're holding two pair or a set, you need the flush or nine to win. The all in person could have the same thing.
Now, you're realistic odds are just under 4:1 (you need the flush for the nuts). Pot odds would say no.
Of course, that's assuming I have the math right, and the players aren't donks hoping for a miracle card. 
You should have folded after the raise on the turn. However, since you called and hit your ace, did you call the $5 on the river?
Posted Wed Jun 20, 2007 3:56 am GMT by Poto
| poker_bill wrote: | | Well, the turn card gives you 15 outs |
Now that's a pretty optimistic estimate, don't you think? I would say that it's pretty rare that all 15 outs are good.
Posted Wed Jun 20, 2007 5:37 am GMT by poker_bill
Did you read past the first line?
Posted Wed Jun 20, 2007 1:00 pm GMT by TheSalche
| poker_bill wrote: | | Well, the turn card gives you 15 outs (9 diamonds, 3 nines, 3 aces). You are 2 to 1 against improving, which is pretty good odds. |
Regardless of what you said after this sentence, this one was horrible. The nines gives you 3rd pair w/ an all-in player which will win once every never. You didn't even mention the gutshot with a 7, although that is also an unclean out (split pot or J9 for better straight). You really can't count the ace as an out either, since JQ would make the nut straight.
Hero's best chance here is a diamond, then probably a 7 and lastly an ace, I'd probably say 10 or 11 outs is a fair number.
I think calling the turn bet is okay, since we're the last to act and we have position on the river so we're more likely to get paid off. There's no perfect cards at the river here since you hold the ace and 9 of diamonds so delora can't make a straight with your 5th flush card. However if she has something like KJ or even two pair you'll probably get paid off.
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