Agressive play backfiring |
|
Posted Wed Jun 20, 2007 12:25 am GMT by zaxxon23
I'm an amateur at best, and have played over the past 7 months using the super system style, as well as playing with basic odds charts and calculators as are on this site. The agressive play had definative advantages at first, even though my bankroll was on a rollercoaster. In the end, after six months, I was ahead to $2000 off of my $500 investment, of which $800 was on an apparently lucky 2nd place win in a $10 tournament (since I haven't done squat in tourneys since then). Regardless, minus the tourney, it appeared that despite not a huge return on investment, I was definately making money playing part time.
However, in the past month, the play style has completely backfired on me. People stay in on anything, I get constantly reraised, and I simply can't hit much at all. People suck out on me constantly, yet I can't hit a 15-outer to save my life. I'm down to a hundred bucks left (withdrew 1k and lost $900) and am ready to throw myself in the .5/.10 room, of which I'll even play more psycho calling stations and probably lose the rest.
Obviously, this is extremely frustrating. I don't feel on tilt, but yet something is going horribly wrong. I figure it's one of a few things.
1) I'm just amazingly unlucky, and the streak will eventually go away. Statistically, I'm a damn outlier at this point. I see people hit tons of hands in two hours and I'm lucky if I get a pair in the same time. Consistently. It's easy to think that losing 90% of your bankroll is about much more then just bad luck, but about $200 of that $900 is what I'd consider normal variance, and the other $700 is everything I lost to huge hands. I push 15-outer and don't hit. I call w/ 3 of a kind, someone hits their flush. Many many bad beats as of late.
2) The super system method is outdated for the internet and I need to learn a new style.
3) Some internet database is keeping track of my hands, labeling me as aggressive, and people are playing back at me knowing this. This is a big concern as I know such databases exist.
So what do you guys think? What can I do at this point to resurrect my game? I feel like I suck, but at the same time I feel like I outplay the majority of players. I've almost got my back against the wall here and am left with almost no style to play but tight/weak, and that is NOT where I want to be.
Did you know that participating in a poker forum can help you improve your own game? Be it by sharing experiences or simply asking for help, participation in a forum helps you focus and keep 'on topic' which will help you improve your game. You can learn from other players feedback and from their experiences. Why the THP poker forums? We offer one of the best managed texas holdem poker forums available, and the community within is far more friendly than those typicaly found on other sites. We've made a 'lurkers edition' of the poker forum available here on Holdem Poker Online, but we encourage all visitors to register and join in on the conversations on TexasHoldem-Poker.com
Posted Wed Jun 20, 2007 6:00 am GMT by poker_bill
When you say you play aggressive, are you playing Loose Aggresive, or Tight Aggresive?
Based on what you've written, it sounds like you're a LAG (Loose Aggresive) player.
If you play with the same people all the time, or they're using a database to keep track of players, they're going to figure out that you're a LAG, and come after you.
Time to change gears. Play tight, pick your cards and play position, and when you hit, be ready to pounce.
Poker is full of ups and downs, there's times when you can make the right choices and still lose, and times when you can make the wrong choices and win. This is were bankroll management comes in, you have to be able to get through the bad times.
Super System is a good book, but it's not the only one out there. Read others to put in it perspective.
Also, did you change anything in the last month, like change limits? If so, that could account for your swing.
Posted Wed Jun 20, 2007 7:53 am GMT by supafrey
| zaxxon23 wrote: | 1(a)I'm an amateur at best, and have played over the past 7 months using the super system style, as well as playing with basic odds charts and calculators as are on this site.
1(b) It's easy to think that losing 90% of your bankroll is about much more then just bad luck, but about $200 of that $900 is what I'd consider normal variance,
**** Do you see the problem between these two paragraphs? You're a 7 month amateur with an opinion on what is "normal variance" .. There is absolutely no way you have experience with this yet. Your opinion is moot.
2) The super system method is outdated for the internet and I need to learn a new style.
**** It's possible. That book wasn't written to be played at penny stakes against unknowns - far too many people ONLY read S.S. and face this exact same problem.
3) Some internet database is keeping track of my hands, labeling me as aggressive, and people are playing back at me knowing this. This is a big concern as I know such databases exist.
**** This is not something you have to worry about. Seriously. I'm not going to waste my time explaining this one, but as a very basic example, consider that even the most high profile online players continue to make money, despite the fact they are being recorded, datamined and "databased" on a daily basis.
So what do you guys think? What can I do at this point to resurrect my game? I feel like I suck, but at the same time I feel like I outplay the majority of players.
**** Stop trying to outplay people every hand. Play straightforward at small stakes. You're overthinking and overplaying and overmanipulating. These are not the stakes to be trying to trick people.
However, in the past month, the play style has completely backfired on me. People stay in on anything, I get constantly reraised, and I simply can't hit much at all. People suck out on me constantly, yet I can't hit a 15-outer to save my life. I'm down to a hundred bucks left (withdrew 1k and lost $900) and am ready to throw myself in the .5/.10 room, of which I'll even play more psycho calling stations and probably lose the rest.
**** Reread my previous point - at penny stakes trying to push people off of hands where they "should know to fold" (I'm rolling my eyes here) is not profitable in the least. Bet when you have it, draw to the basic percentages and outs as necessary, and don't worry about trying to outplay your opponents. The vast majority have only a basic understanding of the game - why are you trying to manipulate people that can't see past their own cards?
Remember that the best play is NOT the one you think they SHOULD react to in a certain way.. It's just the one that makes you the most money. At small stakes, that's often the very simple, very straightforward, very boring one.
Keep a solid bankroll and don't outplay yourself and you will make money. Your ideas about being "horribly unlucky" are simple gambler's fallacy. |
Posted Wed Jun 20, 2007 12:32 pm GMT by Gunslinger
Regardless of whether your losses were due to your style of play or variance, it seems to me your biggest problem might be bankroll management. If you lost 90% of your bankroll in one month, then you were playing in stakes that were too high.
You must have 20 buy-ins at a level in order to play it. If this means grinding out thousands of hands at a level lower than what you were making money at before, then that's what you have to do to not repeat this process again. You WILL get a bad beat by an opponent hitting a two-outter on you, everyone does, and you can't have a huge chunk of your roll on the table when it happens.
Posted Wed Jun 20, 2007 4:35 pm GMT by Ensano
| Gunslinger wrote: | Regardless of whether your losses were due to your style of play or variance, it seems to me your biggest problem might be bankroll management. If you lost 90% of your bankroll in one month, then you were playing in stakes that were too high.
You must have 20 buy-ins at a level in order to play it. If this means grinding out thousands of hands at a level lower than what you were making money at before, then that's what you have to do to not repeat this process again. You WILL get a bad beat by an opponent hitting a two-outter on you, everyone does, and you can't have a huge chunk of your roll on the table when it happens. |
he cashed out 1k... so technically he cashed out 50% and lost the other 40%...
Posted Wed Jun 20, 2007 9:20 pm GMT by Gunslinger
Unless someone says they have money they cashed out easily available, not earmarked for (or spent on) other things, ready to transfer back online if needed, I certainly don't consider it part of someone's bankroll. Especially for purposes of bankroll management.
Posted Wed Jun 20, 2007 10:45 pm GMT by zaxxon23
Yes, in essence I have lost 90% of my bankroll. The cashed out money is not available (plus it's a hassle to get online in the US). As for bankroll management, I just stayed at the .10/.25 tables that I've been beating for months. I did move up a bit to the .25/.5 and .5/1 tables for a bit, and did quite well, but went back down after a few bad beats when I had 70% left of my original bankroll. It looks like I played at the .10/.25 too long, though.
So I guess at this point I've got no other choice then to play tight at lower value tables until I get my bankroll back up. I will also take a break and brush up on the theorum of poker (which I have, as well as the harrington on hold'em series), then come back and spend more time playing a less agressive style, at least at the lower value tables. I think that supafrey made some great points that I need to listen to. Too often I do just stay agressive in a table full of calling stations, and I shouldn't.
Thanks for the feedback.
Posted Thu Jun 21, 2007 9:42 am GMT by MrDarling
Just a quick note : Doyle says in his book that all his tactics are aim to work against GOOD players. Don't attempt them against weak players. Against weak players you should play straight forward poker.
Posted Thu Jun 21, 2007 8:49 pm GMT by odlozilik
Well, I got impressed by the original message, because I can tell quite a similar story of myself. I started to play poker about 1 and half year ago on freerolls, made few bucks and built a bancroll from nothing. I was winning in the long run at the cash tables for about 9 months, learning step by step, but not changing my playstyle much.
So, little by little I made about 1.8K $, when some dramatic storries occured. During 1 week, I raised up like a racket and riched 3.3K at one point. Then lost a "little bit", but stayed closed to 3K. After that going up and down untill the Big breakdown, when I started to lose again and again, and lost about 1.6 K in about 2 weeks (I have withdrawn 1 K in the meantime). Then I came back to microlimits and I am stabilizing little by little again.
I always felt, as many other players, at least on the pokersite I play, that there is something "misterious" behind. It's not just to know to play, but, seems to me, much more important is to play in the right time and to stop in the right time. There are times when I can't do anything; whatever I get, however I play, someone beats me. Nobody can keep winning, when opponents hit the river constantly. On the site I play some points are obvious: players, who just sit down get good hands and the opportunity to win, while players sitting "too long" at the table are stagnating, getting no cards. It's obviously the point to controll myself and leave, when I feel something is getting wrong (usually some bad beat is the sign). I knew it all the time I played, but, unfortunatelly, I lost much on those moments, when I couldn't stop, thinking I can get the money back immediatelly.
So, there can be really something true on zaxxon's point 1), that could really be some kind of "streak", in combination with other circumstances. It's quite probable that sites don't like much, when people keep winning (and especially withdrawing theire money), so that they give them hard time to break them down.
Well, I know, it might look like a fantasy, but that's the way I feel it.
Posted Fri Jun 22, 2007 1:53 am GMT by MrDarling
I really can't understand people who think online poker is rigged and yet they keep playing.
What ever way you look at it - it make you look bad.
Its either you are playing bad and you feel the need to come with a conspiracy theory.
Or they really do cheat you but you insist on giving them more money.
I honestly can't say which of the two make you look worse.
Posted Fri Jun 22, 2007 4:02 am GMT by odlozilik
| MrDarling wrote: | I really can't understand people who think online poker is rigged and yet they keep playing.
What ever way you look at it - it make you look bad.
Its either you are playing bad and you feel the need to come with a conspiracy theory.
Or they really do cheat you but you insist on giving them more money.
I honestly can't say which of the two make you look worse. |
Do you seriously think that the cards really fall down randomly on online poker? On the site I play surely not. That's not just my oppinion, most players feel that too. Many times, while having all in showdown, I simply feel, which card will fall down to beat me.
The point is it is not always rigged to my disadvantage, but, as I described, at the certain moments I usually get good cards, good flops etc. So, in the end, it really depends on player's skills anyway, because the "luck" changes.
I didn't choose that site because it seems to be rigged, but just because I succeeded to make a bankroll there from nothing. I had to go on then.
Posted Fri Jun 22, 2007 4:54 am GMT by Jernej Zorec
the biggest problem of yours is u read a book,
u start playing u win and u just play like a robot
that simply does not work in cash games, those are constantly changing
what worked a year ago doesnt work today as well as it did
people leard adjust and change their game
and if u want to win constantly u have to observe how ur opponents are playing all the time and adjust properly
Posted Fri Jun 22, 2007 1:12 pm GMT by supafrey
What jernej said about the year ago to now being very, very different is an excellent point.
Everything that odz said is complete and total bullshit. Completely. Make all the excuses you want, but you are totally and entirely full of shit. You "and your friends" and "other people" that agree with you - nothing about streaks, dead cards, long sessions etc applies to online poker anymore than to live poker. Your theories make you sound like a moron.
Posted Mon Jun 25, 2007 3:36 am GMT by Wilbur
| supafrey wrote: | What jernej said about the year ago to now being very, very different is an excellent point.
Everything that odz said is complete and total bullshit. Completely. Make all the excuses you want, but you are totally and entirely full of shit. You "and your friends" and "other people" that agree with you - nothing about streaks, dead cards, long sessions etc applies to online poker anymore than to live poker. Your theories make you sound like a moron. |
The problem is that human mind is great at picking patterns and it will keep doing it whether you like it or not. It often affects my playing style a bit when I catch a few bad beats. I usually start playing more passively (mostly preflop).
Picking patterns from cards that are completely random isn't really something you want to base you play on.
Posted Mon Jun 25, 2007 11:48 am GMT by AHBrownell
| Quote: | | Do you seriously think that the cards really fall down randomly on online poker? |
Having played about 2 million hands of NL Hold'em myself, I will tell you they are quite random. Yes you will have bad beats, but that is part of the game. People tend to overestimate their value in poker. For example, lets say you have AA against 88 allin. You are going to win that roughly 80% of the time, but that means 1/5 times you will lose. Its not some horrible beat when it happens, its going to happen 1/5 times - and that is actually quite often.
On an aside, its in the poker site's interest to keep the cards random. Sites make their money through the rake, and if players thought that play was unfair or not random they would quit, and the site loses its rake. I get very annoyed when people comment that sites are "rigged" because all it does is make your amatuer opponents feel uneasy about playing - and possibly causes some of them to quit and cash out their money.
I've always thought that TJ Cloutier said it best when he stated that good poker players extract the maximum with their winning hands and lose the minimum with their losing hands. I find that most players who take a bad beat, lose half of their bankroll, and shout "poker is rigged" need to make sure that the reason they lost their money wasn't due more to poor bankroll management and winning less / losing more in each hand they play...
Posted Mon Jun 25, 2007 11:57 am GMT by AHBrownell
| Jernej Zorec wrote: | | if u want to win constantly u have to observe how ur opponents are playing all the time and adjust properly |
This is dead on for the OP. Your post seems to reflect a very separate view of poker. You can even ask some of the posters on this forum, when I first started playing I was all about creating rules to play winning poker. I wanted to know exactly what to do, and just do that over and over, making it as easy as possible. One of the posters came on one of my posts and said something to the effect of "poker is not as easy a game as you want it to be." And really, its not. Poker is a very complex game because there isn't one single strategy that works in every game. When I play multitable online NL holdem, I have two main styles that I play. One is semi-LAG and the other is TAG. When I start a session I start out in TAG, but then I try to adjust my play. For example, Full Tilt seems to have more aggressive players than a lot of other sites. I found that check-raising is much stronger in most games here, so I tend to play TAGP, playing passively on flops where I think my opponent will bet when I check. Just yesterday though, I found a lot of my tables were playing very tight and not betting or paying me off much, so I loosened up and adopted a LAG strategy. I limped in and called a bit more too. My opponents were letting me draw, so I kept playing suited, connecting cards. Its this reaction that separates good players from decent ones. You need to be able to go "my opponents are doing X more than normal so I should do Y to counter them."
I would highly recommend getting Poker Tracker and GameTime+ as well. The "online poker database" you are talking about is probably this. PT is very reasonably priced (and gametime is free) and its well worth it. I constantly use the stats that PT provides to my advantage. Knowing that a particular player is aggressive - to go for a check raise, OR knowing a player is extremely tight allows a fold with AK to their reraise, OR knowing you can reraise that button raiser from the blinds without much of a hand because he is LAG and probably has a weak hand ALL become plays that this software lets you take advantage of. I used to figure "poker tracker doesn't add much." That thinking is completely wrong - using poker tracker is the single most impotant thing a serious player can do to improve their game.
Anyway, you are doing the right thing coming to a forum and getting some advice. GL and hope things turn around for you.
Posted Mon Jun 25, 2007 2:26 pm GMT by supafrey
Although I question AHbrownells 2 million hand estimate, the quality of posts outside of the obvious crap in this thread makes me very, very happy. THP has a ton of hope and a good bunch of guys. Awesome.
Posted Mon Jun 25, 2007 3:18 pm GMT by AHBrownell
Well I had a million hands last August. So its probably closer to 1.5 million, lol supa, can't a man round up for effect. I was semi-bluffing. :D
|
|
