Posted Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:02 am GMT by Ben4040
I just moved from Pennsylvania to California where they have some card rooms so I have been playing at a local card room a handful of times.
I went to the card room tonight where I played some $3/6 limit hold'em. I have done consistently well over the last three times that I have played there. I have made good reads, good laydowns, and generally played very solid. I only play big hands like AK, AQ, or large pocket pairs... but if I can see a cheap flop with two suited cards or a low pair to try to flop a big hand I will do it. The strategy has generally worked out.
Tonight I made what I considered to be a questionable fold and I immediately regretted my decision, but after reviewing the pot odds it seems that I made the correct decision (if my math is correct). But I just wanted to get all of your opinions on what you would have done...
I was dealt J  J  in the small blind. Two players limped in: one in early position and the other in middle position. The guy to my right on the button raises it to $6.
Figuring that I probably have the raiser beat, and wishing to go head-to-head with him rather than have additional players in the pot that could draw out on me, I re-reraised to $9. The re-raised didn't scare out the limpers as they called the additional $6 and the guy on the button caps it at 4 bets for an additional $3 to us all. After we called there was now $45 in the pot.
The flop comes K X X (with the X's being two cards lower than Js). I can't remember for certain, but I believe the board was rainbow and the two low cards didn't appear to have any immediate straight potential danger.
Seeing the King on the flop, I immediately put the brakes on knowing that, with a pot that was 4 bet before the flop, someone had to have the King. I checked and the two limpers after me checked. Now the guy on the button bets $3.
I considered this bet for about 5 seconds. I knew someone had the King. Worse yet, even if I caught the Jack on the turn I had no way of knowing that it would be any good... with the guy to my right capping before the flop I was seriously considering the fact that he was holding AA or KK in his hand. If he was holding KK then chasing the J wouldn't even do me any good. I mucked my cards.
The instant after I mucked and my hand was in a motion coming back to my side I immediately wanted to grab my cards back. I thought to myself "that was kind of stupid, it's only $3 more to see the next card and there is $45 in the pot as it sits right now", plus an additional $9 at least for this guy's bet and at least one other caller (perhaps $54 to be in the pot for only $3 to call - 18:1). Even worse, something in my gut was telling me right away that a Jack was coming on the turn.
Of course a Jack came on the turn and I watched in disgust after the river came down as a pot of roughly $70 went to a guy that was holding KQ. It turns out the guy on the button was raising with pocket 9s.
I knew that in order to win the pot I had to catch a Jack on the turn. That is roughly a 4 or 4.5% chance if I am correct. If this is the case, then you would still in the best case need to be getting at least roughly 21:1 on your money to make the call the correct move (if this math is right).
In addition, any notion of implied odds might be trumped by the fact that, with the 4 bet pre-flop, your opponent could be holding KK in which case you are pretty much screwed anyway.
I would be very curious to see all of your thoughts on this hand. I have been thinking about it all night. I'm just trying to learn from it... trying not to torment myself over it. 
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Posted Thu Jun 21, 2007 3:24 am GMT by jimmer
First of all, I don't play limit hold'em, so my thoughts may not count for much.
However I do feel too many players call because they have (what they consider to be) the "right pot odds". This may be the case, but if your hand is losing it doesn't really matter what your odds are.
In your case, on the flop, you were losing and therefore read the table well.
You can't be blamed for folding that hand especially with 3 other guys in the pot. What happens if you called or raised the $3 and then got a re-raise from one of the others. The pot odds might still be there, but I would consider myself to deffinatly be beaten.
Also, you said you only like to play AK, AQ or large pocket pairs. IMO (for NLHE) JJ is in the same bracket as TT, 99 & 88. Therefore I don't think theres any shame in folding this hand on the flop with an overcard.
IMO i think you made the right play against 3 other players. If you only had one opponent my opinion maybe different.
Posted Thu Jun 21, 2007 12:07 pm GMT by mortaleclipse
3/6 is no foldem holdem. Dodging everything under the sun in that game.
Posted Thu Jun 21, 2007 12:27 pm GMT by Gunslinger
With the pot laying you such huge odds, I think you need to peel a card here. The two limpers seem like weak players, if they are limping then calling two cold, they don't necessarily have big cards. The original raiser could be c-betting anything. You can't assume someone must have the one overcard to your hand, nor can you assume the bettor has the nuts (KK). You are getting tremendous odds for one small bet, and if there's more action behind you or you brick the turn, you can dump it then. Also, if you hit your jack, don't be scared by action from the button, he's more likely to have AK than KK. Don't be afraid of monsters under the bed.
One other thing. It's much easier to calculate your odds in limit by just counting the number of bets in the pot, not the amount of $. 4-way capped preflop equals 16 small bets in the pot, the button bets the flop and you know instantly you're getting around 17-1 on your immediate call. When the turn comes, just divide by two to determine how many big bets in the pot and continue the same way. This makes the math much easier, plus you don't have to get used to new denominations if you change limits.
Posted Thu Jun 21, 2007 1:09 pm GMT by Ensano
getting 17-1 not counting the other 2 people left to act... also your implied odds on the turn alone could be as high as 6 more bets.. (with the size of the pot i doubt many villians would fold here)
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