AK, an hour into $4.40, 180 person SnG |
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Posted Wed Jun 27, 2007 11:12 am GMT by Kalbelgarion
I moved to the table about 20 minutes ago. My opponent here has been very quiet, has played few hands, and folds on the flop a lot to aggression.
PokerStars Game #10645739755: Tournament #53931517, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2007/06/27 - 11:38:16 (ET)
Table '53931517 2' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: HippyH (2037 in chips)
Seat 3: harakiri333 (5605 in chips)
Seat 4: danialce (3660 in chips)
Seat 5: Moneyface666 (5379 in chips)
Seat 6: janinak1234 (1238 in chips)
Seat 7: Givemea10-6 (1175 in chips)
Seat 8: Kalbelgarion (3335 in chips)
Seat 9: gregdiablo (1179 in chips)
HippyH: posts small blind 50
harakiri333: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Kalbelgarion  
danialce: calls 100
Moneyface666: folds
janinak1234: folds
Givemea10-6: folds
Kalbelgarion: raises 300 to 400
gregdiablo: folds
HippyH: folds
harakiri333: folds
danialce: calls 300
*** FLOP ***   
danialce: checks
Kalbelgarion: bets 500
(danialce goes into time bank)
danialce: calls 500
At this point, I think it's most likely that the villain has a medium pocket pair, like 99 or TT. He should fold two overcards to my flop bet, fearing that I have an overpair myself, and should have folded a hand with a four or five to my raise Pre-flop.
*** TURN *** 
danialce: checks
Kalbelgarion: bets 800
(danialce goes into time bank again)
danialce: raises 1960 to 2760 and is all-in
Kalbelgarion: calls 1635 and is all-in
At this point, I figure the villain either has an A with a Q or J kicker--and figures that I have a pocket pair--or has a pocket pair himself and doesn't believe that I have the A. He could have a heart draw, but that's pretty unlikely, as I have the A .
I don't see any hand the villain could have that has me beat. So I figure it's an easy call.
What do you think? Did I play this hand well?
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Posted Wed Jun 27, 2007 11:34 am GMT by Ensano
against most opponents i don't like betting here...
you're either way ahead or way behind..
he called your bet either with a 5, pocket 4s, overpair or overcards or possibly a FD... so either you're completely dominated and he has a 5 or you're at worst a 75% favorite to the FD...you have position so i don't see much harm in checking behind...
if he senses weakness and bets out on the river you can call a reasonable bet or check behind if he checks the river...
i think showing this down cheap would be in the hero's best interest...
Posted Wed Jun 27, 2007 11:35 am GMT by Jernej Zorec
unless he was timing off alot
i'd say he's trying to look weak so he either has 44 or 55
with turn check raise all in, he isnt affraid of Aces up and with UTG
limp there is a slight chance he has AA but u have AK so its a bit less likely
and he might push preflop if he has them
now if hes a type of player who does this with KK hes just an idiot
i know in these things people play really bad but still besides
A5s i cant see him having trips unless he was limping a lot.
the timeout seems vierd specially becouse u pointed it out
so unless hes been limping a lot ur play is good
against average not too loose player in these things ur good almost like always (disregarding the long time he took)
Posted Wed Jun 27, 2007 11:47 am GMT by Kalbelgarion
| Quote: | | he called your bet either with a 5, pocket 4s, overpair or overcards or possibly a FD... so either you're completely dominated and he has a 5 or you're at worst a 75% favorite to the FD...you have position so i don't see much harm in checking behind... |
Someone would have to be very loose to call a 4x BB raise PF with 44, A5, or 56s, and in the 20 minutes I've been at the table, the villain has been pretty tight.
I think the most likely hands are 77-JJ, AQ, AJ, and AT. If I don't bet again on the turn, I think I'm losing chips to a guy who would call with a worse A than mine and who would, at worst, fold.
Based on my raise PF and the texture of the board, I think there's a really good chance that TP/TK is good. Why not capitalize and get as much money as I can? Should I really be hampered by the remote chance that he called my PF raise with 44 or something like 95o?
Posted Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:14 pm GMT by Ensano
calling a raise with 44, 55 isn't very hard to believe... initial limp.... blinds+limp+raise=650pot he has to call 300 getting 2.1:1, not to mention you've both got 3k+ in chips i would call there so stack you all day...
the hand plays out like a set...
44 limp... oh LP raises... i'm getting 2.1:1 to call... he's got 10x what i have to call.... kk... i'll try to hit my set... flop... 545... sweet.. now let's check to the raiser... ooh.. and he cbets... range? (AJ and up... pp 7s and up)... he wouldn't be raising with a 5 so i can let him peel one off... turn A... sweet... i hope he hit that ace... let's see if he hit it... if i check he would check if he has a PP but bet if he was just cbetting and now he has the ace... good... he bet... looks like aces up for him... time to get it all in...
i know what you're saying the hand also plays out like 77-1010 AJand up... but with the very realistic chance you're behind there's no need to be greedy...
before you make that turn bet you have to be ready for the chance that he raises you... when you get raised here I'd say 70% of the time you're behind...
i'm just saying there there are lots of hands that villian could be on (shit.. he could be semibluffing with AXhearts)... and because you're in such a bad spot betting here for value isn't worth it... check behind and get to SD cheap...
Posted Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:23 pm GMT by AHBrownell
Bet more preflop. 400 is not enough here. I bet at least 500, punishing limpers like this guy.
In terms of his range. He could have just about anything because you priced him in preflop, so I tend to think its feasible that he has 44, 55, A5, AA, 45, or any of the hands you mentioned.
I play it like you did after the flop though...
Posted Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:37 pm GMT by Kalbelgarion
| Ensano wrote: | | calling a raise with 44, 55 isn't very hard to believe... initial limp.... blinds+limp+raise=650pot he has to call 300 getting 2.1:1, not to mention you've both got 3k+ in chips i would call there so stack you all day... |
If you only have a one-in-eight chance of hitting a set on the flop, you're losing money by calling here. Correct me if I'm wrong, but to be able to stack a person you need too many factors to all hit for it to be profitable:
-You need to hit the set on the flop (1-in-8 chance)
-Your opponent needs to hit a piece of the flop (1-in-3 chance at best)
-Your opponent needs to not hit a higher set
2:1 is not good enough odds to call with 44, especially when there's a very good chance that you're up against a high pocket pair.
Let's say I make this raise with TT-AA, and AK and AQ.
32 unpaired hands, 30 paired hands. It's 50-50 with the unpaired hands, and 80-20 with the paired hands.
IMHO, the pot odds just aren't there to make the call pre-flop, nor are the implied odds there. Roughly, there's a 1-24 chance that you're going to hit a set and your opponent will also pair on the flop. Far from the 2:1 you're getting pre-flop.
| Quote: | | the hand plays out like a set... |
I agree, except for the pre-flop part. But I suppose the villain could have made a very loose call, but it didn't seem to be his style.
| Quote: | | i'm just saying there there are lots of hands that villian could be on (shit.. he could be semibluffing with AXhearts)... and because you're in such a bad spot betting here for value isn't worth it... check behind and get to SD cheap... |
Hard for him to have Ax hearts, unless there are two Ah in the deck. 
Posted Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:49 pm GMT by AHBrownell
| Kalbelgarion wrote: | | If you only have a one-in-eight chance of hitting a set on the flop, you're losing money by calling here. Correct me if I'm wrong, but to be able to stack a person you need too many factors to all hit for it to be profitable |
Its a tournament. Odds are not exactly the same because if you get more chips it just increases your chances to win more money, so the chips don't have as an exact value as they do in a cash game. For example, having the chip lead gives you certain abilities players will less chips cannot do, so what is that worth exactly? It cannot be measured. It is a good tactic to take chances to get lots of chips. Calling with 44 or 55 or 45 or any two cards is probably not a mistake based on your raise preflop.
With the blinds and his call in the pot it was 300 to him with a pot of 650. So he's getting better than 2:1 on the call. Not a lot of hands you could have could put him in much worse then a 2:1 dog. I would make the play he did with any hand he would limp in with.
Posted Wed Jun 27, 2007 1:10 pm GMT by Kalbelgarion
If that's the case, then at what point does it become a mistake to limp/call a pre-flop raise with 44? If 2:1 is good enough to try to hit a 1-in-8 chance at a set, is it ever a mistake to call a pre-flop raise with any cards that are worth limping with?
Posted Wed Jun 27, 2007 1:30 pm GMT by Ensano
kk... you're getting 2.1:1 but you need 8:1...
8-2.1=5.9... 5.9:1 is what you need in implied odds...
5.9*300 = 1770... all you need win WHEN YOU HIT YOUR SET is 1770... given the current size of the pot and the standard players cbetting getting 1770 won't be that hard...
not to mention that there are other senarios where we can take down this pot without hitting the set...
Posted Wed Jun 27, 2007 1:47 pm GMT by Kalbelgarion
Now does that mean he has to make 1770 profit, or 1770 has to be the size of the pot at the end? If I bet 500, and he calls and wins, he didn't make 1000, he only made 500.
If he puts in 300, he has to get eight times his investment back in profit to make it a good move. Which means that he has to win 2400 from me/other limpers/the blinds. If I don't hit an A or K on the turn, I'm not betting and he doesn't take my stack.
Then again, if pot odds do not matter in tournaments and every chip you win is worth more than the chip before, none of this "odds" discussion really matters, as it's worth it to take the bad side of a match-up for the outside chance that you can double up.
Posted Wed Jun 27, 2007 3:08 pm GMT by AHBrownell
I just think you are putting too much stock in the math here. Long term, yes he is 8.5:1 to hit a set, but that doesn't matter in tournaments as much because a tournament is largely a short run event. Lets say there are 5-6 important hands in a tournament that make or break your tournament life. Ideally you want to make decisions based on the correct math, but if its pretty close it might be worth it to win those extra chips because there value is not monetary, its gameplay value - it gives you more options/abilities to win.
So lets say he calls that 300 here. He would need to win more than 2550 total for it to be a profitable decision, however there is some equity in the pot, 650. So when he calls he needs to only win more than 1900 additional chips for this to be a positive EV play. Then you should consider that even if he wins 1000 chips, that may allow him to bully the table, or take a coin flip, or make a squeeze play at a later stage that he could not have done without those chips. So even though he took the worst of it in this one hand, he could make it up later. Its like the future implied odds might make this play okay, even if its technically wrong in a single case situation.
Posted Wed Jun 27, 2007 3:47 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
I think you played it absolutely fine.
Posted Wed Jun 27, 2007 3:52 pm GMT by Kalbelgarion
That makes a lot more sense. When looking at just this hand, the villain made a mistake by calling. However, over the term of the entire tournament, winning just 1000 chips here could lead to winning more down the road, so not only are there implied odds in this hand, but implied odds for future hands to be had.
So his move with 44 was okay for a tournament, not good for a ring game.
I've read through HoH twice, and I always thought that the most important factors in making a decision were pot odds, position, stack size, and pot odds. I hadn't thought of future implied odds in conjuncture with the powerhouse of being the big stack.
Posted Wed Jun 27, 2007 3:57 pm GMT by Gunslinger
It sounds like you're really trying to convince yourself that your opponent made a bad play, if indeed he called your raise with a hand that is beating you on the turn. Everything AHBrownell and Ensano has said is pretty good advice. I'd like to add one thing.
You said:
| Quote: | | I don't see any hand the villain could have that has me beat. |
Another question you need to ask yourself at the table is, what hands do I beat that my opponent would have played the way he did? You said yourself he should have folded two overcards to your flop bet (which includes AQ or AJ). Then you said he might have a pair and doesn't believe you have the A. But his check raise is a very strong move, you are getting over 3:1 on your call, so he can't think there's a good chance you'll fold. Your own read was that he was tight and folded to aggression, and if he loses this pot he'll be crippled. Would he really play AQ or TT this way?
All these things have to go through your head when making a decision for all of your chips.
Posted Wed Jun 27, 2007 4:06 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
IMO, it's simply far too likely that your opponent is either betting a weaker Ace or simply exploiting a scare card to justify folding. Sure, he could be slowplaying 44, 55, or even AA, and sure he might even have something like A5, or he might be pulling a delayed sem-bluff with hearts (which you have crushed anyway), or he might be splitting with AK, but if he's going to bluff, that's a good situation to do it in, especially since he may interpret your somewhat small bets as weak. People do all sorts of crazy things in tournaments, especially $4 ones. Given how the hand played out, I would not fold the turn without further information.
I'm guessing you were beat since you seem like you're trying to convince yourself, as slinger said, that you made a bad play. I do not think that is the case. Like I said, I don't think you can fold because a standard opponent is either going to be bluffing or holding a weaker Ace a pretty significant portion of the time.
Posted Wed Jun 27, 2007 4:23 pm GMT by Kalbelgarion
At this level, I would say that an all-in check-raise is a bluff about 50% of the time, and a sign of strength the other 50%. Just earlier in this tournament another player check-raised me all-in on a Q-high board on the turn. I called with my AQ and he flipped over A5 for no pair and no draw.
I've seen plenty of people get nervous and shove with their pocket pair when an A falls, or assume that top pair/Jack kicker is always the best hand. There are plenty of people at the $4 level who would check-raise this turn with AQ or TT.
Now, I had only been watching this person for 20 minutes, so I couldn't say for sure that he is a person who would do such a thing, but it seems likely, even possible that he would.
Posted Wed Jun 27, 2007 5:07 pm GMT by Ensano
everyone has a good point here...
that's why i feel checking the turn to get a cheap SD in the face of a perceived TAG check/calling our flop cbet OOP would be a very good line here...
Posted Wed Jun 27, 2007 5:38 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
There is also the pot-control option. Check behind on the turn and then either call a bet on the river or make a modest bet when checked to. Pretty much the only thing you have to protect against out there is a heart, because otherwise if you have the best hand, it will probably still be the best hand on the river (if he doesn't have a full house, trips, or hearts, he has at most 2 or 3 outs to beat you).
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