Posted Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:26 pm GMT by MrDarling
No real read, though I've seen him 4 bet few hands before with Q's then push on all under UI flop.
I've decided to simply call his 4 bet, we're both pretty deep I can disguise the strength of my hand and not make him fold smaller pair (and not get stack if he have A's)
Full Tilt Poker Game #2832369816: Table St Rose (6 max) - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:47:05 ET - 2007/07/02
Seat 1: imouttie ($70.80)
Seat 2: DHM0219 ($48.50)
Seat 3: fggrtthtg ($51.20)
Seat 4: hero ($88.65)
Seat 5: imanuil25 ($125.45)
Seat 6: SZENZE ($24.95)
fggrtthtg posts the small blind of $0.25
hero posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hero  
imanuil25 raises to $1.75
SZENZE folds
imouttie folds
DHM0219 folds
fggrtthtg folds
hero has 15 seconds left to act
hero raises to $4.50
imanuil25 raises to $13.75
hero has 15 seconds left to act
hero calls $9.25
*** FLOP ***   
hero checks
imanuil25 bets $27.75
hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero?
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Posted Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:29 pm GMT by AHBrownell
fold?
Posted Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:46 pm GMT by MrDarling
Really? What hand will 4bet and as us beat that will play like that?
A's, J's, AK, maybe AQ and AJ (though do one really 4bet with the last 2?)
I figure a set or 2 pair will not pot it in position after checked to. I figure they will bet less, try to get a call.
AK is not too likely since I'm holding 2 K's. So we're down to AQ. How many people really 4bet AQ?
I think Q's are the most likely hand here...
btw, what are the thoughts of PF and checking the flop?
Posted Mon Jul 02, 2007 6:31 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
| MrDarling wrote: |
Really? What hand will 4bet and as us beat right now? |
Um. Any big Ace. Like AA and AK. JJ also.
| Quote: | | I figure a set or 2 pair will not pot it in position after checked to. I figure they will bet less, try to get a call. |
Why? If he has AA, he has to hope you have something so he can get paid off. Plus, he might just be too excited he hit his hand. Not everyone is going to play it super sly. In this situation, it would actually be pretty obvious and stupid to slowplay AK, AA, or JJ.
| Quote: | | AK is not too likely since I'm holding 2 K's. So we're down to AQ. How many people really 4bet AQ? |
AK is still a very reasonable holding based on the action. AA and JJ are pretty likely, too.
| Quote: |
I think Q's are the most likely hand here...
|
That's pretty wishful thinking. The way I see it, he has AA - JJ or AK. 4 out of 5 of those hands beat you (or tie you in the least likely situation he holds KK). Choosing the one that doesn't as the "most likely hand" seems like thinking designed so you can make a move at the pot, and then say "well, that was pretty unlucky" when you get beat. You are beat so often here it's not even funny. Personally, I'd probably be kinda happy the Ace flopped so I can get away from my hand here, because he has AA at least 40% of the time in this situation if he plays anywhere near "standard."
Posted Mon Jul 02, 2007 7:26 pm GMT by MrDarling
I'm not saying I would slow play A's here. But I'd bet 1/2 to 2/3 the pot instead of potting it.
Potting in such a big pot really doesn't seems like he want a caller.
And this pot is not that draw heavy. At worse we are fearing a gut draw.
Again, I think I sort of induce a big bet from hands that I do beat (though its hard to see many that 4bet)
So no one calls to evaluate the turn?
Posted Mon Jul 02, 2007 7:44 pm GMT by Phil14312
| MrDarling wrote: | I'm not saying I would slow play A's here. But I'd bet 1/2 to 2/3 the pot instead of potting it.
Potting in such a big pot really doesn't seems like he want a caller.
And this pot is not that draw heavy. At worse we are fearing a gut draw.
Again, I think I sort of induce a big bet from hands that I do beat (though its hard to see many that 4bet)
So no one calls to evaluate the turn? |
The problem with that is it kind of ties you to the pot. Its really a flop decision here and it looks like its going to be for stacks. I don't think you have enough equity given his range.
Board: Ad Jc 4h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.915% 62.03% 02.88% 70008 3255.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 35.085% 32.20% 02.88% 36342 3255.00 { KK }
Adding in AQs and AQo gives you:
Board: Ad Jc 4h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 74.961% 73.19% 01.77% 134778 3255.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 25.039% 23.27% 01.77% 42852 3255.00 { KK }
And your equity only goes to 40% if you don't include JJ in his range.
Therefore, you should fold.
Posted Tue Jul 03, 2007 3:46 pm GMT by MrDarling
Here is the problem : My gut tells me that his pot size bet (and probably the speed he made it) is not a strong hand. I really didn't feel he had a 2 pair or a set kind of a hand.
In hindsight I should have realized there are a lot of TP hands that beat me. This is why I chose to call his bet and evaluate on the turn.
I now can see the problem with this. What do I do if a brick fall and he pots again (basically putting me AI).
If he potted this flop with Q's (the hands I hope for) he'll pot it again on the turn (regardless me representing TP by calling) and if he potted with TP, or any better hand that has me dead, then he will pot again.
However, now its gets even more tricky :
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero calls $27.75
*** TURN *** 
Hero checks
imanuil25 bets $83.95, and is all in
SZENZE: lol- ugly card
Posted Tue Jul 03, 2007 4:44 pm GMT by MJJ
| MrDarling wrote: | Here is the problem : My gut tells me that his pot size bet (and probably the speed he made it) is not a strong hand. I really didn't feel he had a 2 pair or a set kind of a hand.
In hindsight I should have realized there are a lot of TP hands that beat me. This is why I chose to call his bet and evaluate on the turn.
I now can see the problem with this. What do I do if a brick fall and he pots again (basically putting me AI).
If he potted this flop with Q's (the hands I hope for) he'll pot it again on the turn (regardless me representing TP by calling) and if he potted with TP, or any better hand that has me dead, then he will pot again.
However, now its gets even more tricky :
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero calls $27.75
*** TURN ***
Hero checks
imanuil25 bets $83.95, and is all in
SZENZE: lol- ugly card |
Well, in your world you just pulled way ahead w/ a set of K's vs a gutshot str8 draw (QQ)
The rest of us folded the flop
Posted Tue Jul 03, 2007 4:44 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
If you're going to make that extremely questionable call on the flop, you CANNOT fold if you hit the gin card on the turn! Your whole rationale for calling the flop was that you were ahead, in which case now he's probably drawing dead.
As played, easiest call in the universe.
Posted Tue Jul 03, 2007 4:54 pm GMT by MrDarling
quote="xDiamond_CutteRx"...Your whole rationale for calling the flop was that you were ahead.../quote
Not really. The only thing I 'felt' is that all he had was a pair. And from deducting from the PF action I thought it is at least as likely to be Q's as AK-AQ...
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