Posted Fri Apr 30, 2004 5:21 am GMT by darcy tucker
I'm having trouble with the concept of pot odds. I've gotten so confused with Ken Warrens chapter on them. One poker site gave me this strategy.....
| Quote: | Once you hit the flop, you should use pot odds to decide your next action. When you hit the flop, either you will be winning or hopefully winning (with a made hand) or you want cards to improve your hand (you are drawing). If you have a made hand, you should bet and raise. You want to win the pot now because more cards can only help your opposition. An example of a made hand is if you hold AK and the board is KJ4.
If you do not have a made hand, you are drawing. You must use 'pot odds' to determine if you should call or fold. First, you must count the number of outs you have. An out is a card that will make your hand the best hand. For example, if your hand is KJ, and the board is Q 10 7, then your outs are 4 Aces and 4 9's, or 8 outs total. To calculate your percentage of hitting an out, you take the # of outs times 2, then add 2. Once you figure out this number, you multiply it by the pot to see what the maximum bet is that you can call. For example, if you have 6 outs (6 cards will help you), you have about a 14% chance of hitting. If the pot is $100 and you must call $10, you should call because you can call up to $14 (.14 X 100) but the cost is only $10. However, if the bet to you was $20, you should fold, because that would require a 20% chance of hitting |
What i don't understand is do you have to do the pot odds in my head each time after the flop, the turn and the river> As soon as the odds aren't in my favour on any of these is that when I fold? So for example you could have the right pot odds to play on the turn but not the river?
And also what happens if i have 8 outs which is 18% chance of me hitting an out. I'm playing 5-10 limit and on the flop the pot is 40$. If i only have to call 5$ i can since I can bet up to 7.2$ but what happens if someone raises behind me and other people start to fold. My pot odds just went from being good to worse right?
Did you know that participating in a poker forum can help you improve your own game? Be it by sharing experiences or simply asking for help, participation in a forum helps you focus and keep 'on topic' which will help you improve your game. You can learn from other players feedback and from their experiences. Why the THP poker forums? We offer one of the best managed texas holdem poker forums available, and the community within is far more friendly than those typicaly found on other sites. We've made a 'lurkers edition' of the poker forum available here on Holdem Poker Online, but we encourage all visitors to register and join in on the conversations on TexasHoldem-Poker.com
Posted Fri Apr 30, 2004 9:13 am GMT by Matt T
Regarding the last part, since you called and somebody raised there is now more money in the pot. So now you recalculate what your max. call is and go from there. So if before it was: $40 pot, 18% chance (more on this later), so $7.20 max. call and then you call $5 and someone raises it to $10; the pot is now $55 so you could call $9.90. But it is only $5 more to you since you were already in for $5.
I think you are correct on the first part, recalculate on the turn. Of course, on the river you've either hit your hand or not and there are no more cards to come so you don't calculate outs there.
BTW, that Outsx4+2=% (with 2 cards to come) formula isn't very accurate. You're 18% above was the odds of hitting your hand on the next card provided it's the river card (actually 17.4%) but your odds of hitting your hand on the turn in that case is only 17.0% (since the deck has 1 less card in it on the river than the turn). Your odds of of hitting your hand with 2 cards to come is 31.5% which is a bit less than the 34% you'd get with that formula. As your # of outs go up, that formula is less and less accurate. Sklansky has a table that is fairly easy to memorize.
This is still kinda new to me so take with a grain of salt. Hopefully someone more experienced will chime in. I still don't totally get Implied Odds but I think that's what got worse in your example above because so many people folded. I think your Pot Odds actually improved (albeit partially at your expense!) because I think you treat the original call and calling the raise as two separate events.
Posted Fri Apr 30, 2004 12:18 pm GMT by darcy tucker
This website is probably a lot better to learn from right? Is the table just like Sklansky?
http://texasholdem.omnihosts.net/pokerodds.html
Posted Fri Apr 30, 2004 12:33 pm GMT by Matt T
The Sklansky chart is in the form of # of outs in one column and % in another column. I took that table and made another with # of outs in one column and odds in another (which is what those tables on that page use).
According to that article, you do factor in your original call when deciding whether to call the raise. I'm not sure why though, you've already put that first bet in there and it's not yours anymore. It seems to me that whether or not to call the raise is a totally different bet. Hopefully someone can explain this.
Oh yea, BTW, I'll give you one guess what the "T" in 'Matt T' stands for. 
Posted Fri Apr 30, 2004 12:46 pm GMT by darcy tucker
Hehe
Forget about all that confusing stuff in my first post. I like the website link I put up.
But there are a couple things that I still don't understand.
1) It says a pair has 2 outs to make 3 of a kind with odds of 1:23. Those are some crappy odds. But then it also says that with a pair you have 5 outs to make 3 of a kind or two pair 1:8? So basically if you think you need 3 of a kind to win the hand use 1:23 and if you think you need 2 pair but are happy to get the 3 of a kind use 1:8?
2) If you have 3 of a kind after the flop and you use your 1:6 odds and play on the turn and miss. Do you recalculate your pot odds and determine if it is worth it or should you only calculate the pot odds for the turn and play through the river?
Thanks guys and sorry for the repetitive questions. I have a tendency of making something simple very confusing.
Posted Wed Jun 02, 2004 2:14 am GMT by snoogins47
As for calculating after the flop, turn, river, etc...
I think that's a bit of an odd way to do it.
In my mind, it's a nice generalization, but...
Well, for me: I'll usuually calculate the current odds of hitting it on the next card vs. the pot. I'll also calculate the odds of hitting it by the river, the average amount of money I figure I'd have to pay, and the size I expect the pot to be by showdown.
Now, this is a lot to think about, and if I'm early to act, I can't usually have these calculations done right then and there, at least precisely.
Basically though you have to try to take into consideration what other players did, how you feel they will play based on past experience, and what other players might theoretically have.
To limit yourself to strictly odds of catching card/size of current pot, is not the best way to do things. For instance, if you flop four to a nut flush, miss it on the turn, there's one person left in the hand, and they bet... You have to try to take into account what he has, and what he would do after the river.
If he is on two pair, he's got a chance to draw out on you. If he's on top pair, his actions will be different, etc. Maybe he's on a good pair with a lower flush draw.
If this person has got a made hand, that you're fairly confident you will beat, but he will at least call on the river (or even bet!) then you have to factor in that extra BB that you can squeeze out of him.
You also have to factor in other things. For instance, let's say you hold the A of hearts, there are two hearts on the flop, and one on the turn.
Good position to be in, yes. But if this guy has been betting the whole way, and the fourth heart comes, he's going to be extremely scared oftentimes. If he's got a high-ish heart, he may call, but if not, chances are that fourth suited card dominated his hand. In that case, you can usually just throw out the extra BB you might get. Though of course, I've gotten played-back at with the nut by somebody with the king at times, which is good fun
Also, if you've been sitting there, checking every time, and when it's your turn to act, you start staring at the pot, counting in your head, think, think, call... then the obvious draw hits, perceptive people are going to think twice before betting/calling ;P
Pot odds are an extremely useful, valuable tool. However, like everything in this game, I do not think it can be broken down in to a simple, mechanical, if X then Y, if not X, then Z sort of situation, due to all the intangibles of the game.
And this is just in limit. In no-limit, depending on the situation, pot-odds may have less of a weight on your play, more of a weight on your play, or even be completely thrown out the window.
Now Darcy, your questions about pairs and three-of-a-kinds can't be very cut-and-dried either. Say you have a pair off the flop, or three-of-a-kind off the flop, and as always, you're looking to improve. However, you shouldn't think of it in the terms of odds like you were before, at least that might not be your main consideration, especially with three of a kind. If you have three of a kind, in many situations, you're often looking at the best hand at the time. In this case, pot odds are more useful in knowing what people might be drawing at, and doing your damndest to try to make it too expensive. With a pair, it depends on how high it is, # of people in the hand, pre--- damn, just about everything, but again, there are more considerations than just your chance to improve.
Note: I'm not sure exactly on the odds that have been mentioned, but a few comments on your last two questions.
1) The odds to make a two-pair with a single pair are often misleading, as a pair on the board is not nearly as strong of a hand as both of your cards pairing up, typically. However, it says you have 5 outs to improve your pair, which would mean, 2 to trips/possible quads, and 3 for your kicker, so 5 total. Depending on how low the off card is, you have to very slightly lower that, at times. If you have A2 for instance, and the flop is A 6 7. 2 outs (Aces, but often you can't bank on these depending on the play of the hand up to this point) and three deuces. However, there's also a good chance of your hand being dominated. We'll say you get your 2 on the turn. There's better than 1 in 10 that your 2 will no longer affect the hand after the river. If you miss on the turn, this is almost irrelevant. Still one of the many things to be taken into consideration.
Basically, use the odds to improve to two pair/trips if you think somebody is also on your pair, and has you out-kicked. Use the trips odds if you for whatever reason think that you will absolutely need to show down trips to win this hand.
2)The 1:6 odds I am fairly certain are based on two of your card on the board. I think the odds of improving to a fullhouse or better with making your set on a pocket pair are slightly better. Anyway, even if you play and miss on the turn, you should only really be reconsidering these pot odds for effect, and if you think you MUST improve to win. If improvement is not necessary, in your mind, to win the hand, bet, bet, and bet again.
|
|
