Posted Mon May 03, 2004 4:36 pm GMT by CamBam
Question: Would you fold AA against an all-in, pre-flop to make sure you end up in the money or at the final table?
Situation: 5 at the table in a SNG....chip lead is ~ 2000; I'm second w/ ~ 1600; third has ~ 1200; 4th & 5th have ~ 400 each and losing ground
I'm on the button. 4th & 5th place are the blinds (not big, maybe 150/300).....3rd place goes all-in w/ QQ; 1st place folds.....I have AA and go all-in.....get beat on the river w/ trip Q's.....end up w/ ~ 400 and couple of hands later bust out
Given I had about 4 times 4th & 5th place and need 3rd to be in the money....I could have folded AA and not taken the chance.....since the odds of flopping another A vs Q are exactly the same, even though I'm favored if neither A or Q flops since I'm hi pair......
If I folded this, I'm "guaranteed" in the money, then I can call the all-in and horse-race to the finish.....
This might be the difference between tournament strategy (surviving the cut) vs ring poker.....
Like to hear your comment/vote on this
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Posted Mon May 03, 2004 4:41 pm GMT by ballbp
At that point you had the best hand but anyone will tell you that you can't get too attached to AA. That's a pretty good question KNOWING that you would be in the money for sure even if you folded. Hmmm....I would have called it.
Posted Mon May 03, 2004 5:47 pm GMT by Geno
No. You never fold AA pre-flop cos IT'S THE NUTS and u don't fold the nuts. If u get outdrawn, u didn't play it wrong, u were beaten by a longshot. In the long run, u win.
Posted Mon May 03, 2004 7:32 pm GMT by mindgame
Geno COME ON!
What you said!
It takes only one second to imagine a situation where folding your pocket aces is the best play:
NL holdem tournament, four players left. Imagine only the last 3 seats get paid. You're the button. Player one is all in. Player two goes all in with a big raise, player 3--with the same stack as player 2--calls. You must fold.
If you are out of this hand you are guarenteed to move up to at least 3rd place and into the money. If player 2 or 3 wins, you automatically get second. This is a almost a 100% guarentee players 2 and 3 could tie. Even if you peeked at the deck and knew the first card off was an Ace, you take the sure thing every time.
My God, Geno, it's poker! What are you doing gambling?
Posted Mon May 03, 2004 9:02 pm GMT by racquet000
I woudn't fold it with 2 other people in. But if 3 people called and 2 were all in and somebody was going to go home. Then i would think about folding. Theres 6 cards against yours. Cards fall all the wrong ways when you dont want them to. So with that said i would fold them. You can't get to attached to them. Yeah there great. But they get cracked all the time. You have the nuts at the start but once the flop hits your nuts are gone. Its not one on one its 1 on 3. your just asking to loose...... but depends on your position. If you were in early postion you should have already moved all in. If you were in late position you would have already seen that 3 peopl were in in front of you. But i belive this has happend on a WPT episode. ONe guy raised with AA and somebody re rasied and another re rasied him. He kinda was wondering what the hell was going on but of course he called. I dont rember the outcome but he was already in the money just more money to loose. Its realy up to your gut instink. Many will play and win. But many will play and loose. When you loose its going to hurt worse cause you had the nuts...lol
Posted Mon May 03, 2004 10:50 pm GMT by cayouche
I was in the same (or close) situation a week ago. Home tournament. Only 3 left, but only the first 2 get money. There's this other girl (which is tied with me in chips) and this other guy (close 3rd).
I'm the big blind, dealt 6-4. Everyone calls/checks. Flop comes, Q-6-4. I have two pairs. She goes all-in.
I knew she had a pair of Qs. I had her beat... but I folded, and showed everyone what I folded. She then told me that she indeed had a pair of Qs, I had her read.
Of course, everyone said "I would've called, blah blah blah...". Yeah, well... I folded... And I went on to win that tournament. 
It was in my game plan all along. Even before the tournament started, I wanted to fold a monster and show everyone, just to get everyone to respect me more. It was the perfect timing, and I did just that.
IMO, it was a great move by me!! Even if I had her beat on the flop, a Q or any other pair on turn/river and I was out.
-----
Same thing applies to your AAs. Geno is right, on long term, you'll win when having rockets. But, under those circumstances, on that particular hand, the best move is to fold, IMO. Your goal is not to win every hand, but to win the tournament.
Opinions??
Posted Mon May 03, 2004 11:01 pm GMT by ballbp
No arguement here. And even worse, she could have had pocket Q's and really thrown you.
Posted Mon May 03, 2004 11:49 pm GMT by racquet000
Dont you love when you lay down a monster. Its even better when you show and people ask why you folded that and keep saying that was dumb. Its the fact they know nothing about cards in the long run. People who think K-10 o if worthy of a raise. I love it when im in home games and i get an AQ cause i know if an ace comes out anybody with an ace gos all in. And i have them outkicked. And they dont understand why i fold Ax. But these are the people who help put money in my pocket. But as was said. You dont have to win everyhand. Just win in the end.
Posted Tue May 04, 2004 3:32 am GMT by Geno
If I'm on the button and it's not like 90% of my stack I will call. If the flop gives me nothing at all, I will throw out if the other players start getting silly. I understand ur point but I don't play for THIRD, I play for FIRST as should all of u 8)
Posted Tue May 04, 2004 8:18 am GMT by racquet000
| Geno wrote: | | If I'm on the button and it's not like 90% of my stack I will call. If the flop gives me nothing at all, I will throw out if the other players start getting silly. I understand ur point but I don't play for THIRD, I play for FIRST as should all of u 8) |
Which i think is why it would be good to lay down if three people are all in and its all in for you to call. Your best preflop. But if 2 face cards come. Your prob screwed. Lay it down and keep taking down pots that arnt risking your first place finish.
Posted Tue May 04, 2004 8:37 am GMT by Dave B
I would call an all in 100% of the time in a sit and go. Multi tourney where I could gain a LARGE amount of money, maybe fold to move up a few spots, but NEVER in a single table sit and go.
I play these to win. 3rd place is almost as bad as losing. 2nd is ok, winning pays off.
Winning the hand and taking out 2 players puts you in the driver seat to win the whole thing.
Posted Tue May 04, 2004 9:21 am GMT by mindgame
I'm not talking about playing for 3rd, I'm just constructing a situation where you are guarenteeing yourself at least third. You cannot win first or second if you lose that hand. Period. Taking that risk vs. a GUARENTEED positive outcome has to be incorrect. The goal in poker is to win money. There isn't any other point. The play I described wins money. You don't even have a choice unless you are there to take a gamble. But this is advanced theory, gentlemen. It must be incorrect to gamble when the alternative is a sure thing.
Posted Tue May 04, 2004 9:56 am GMT by Matt T
From what I get out of Sklansky's Tournament Poker for Advanced Players book, mindgame is right in that scenario. You fold and then just sit there and observe how much real money you just made.
Posted Tue May 04, 2004 10:17 am GMT by Dave B
I still disagree. 5 remaining in a sit and go 2nd in position w/ 3rd place all in (poised to take over 2nd if he wins) and I have AA. lets assume this is a $20 SNG that pays $100/$60/$40
2 outcomes:
1) he loses and is playing w/ 400TC and is tied for 3rd place w/ 3 others. He still has a decent chance of finishing 3rd or better and is one double or 2 blind steals from being a favorite to finish 3rd.
2) he wins, he now has near 4000TC or 1/2 of the chips on the table. Now he has a commanding lead and 1 player w/ 2000 and 2 w/ 400TC, I would consider myself a strong favorite to win this tourney.
1st outcome, 40% chance of finishing in 3rd and making $40 or and expected value of $16
2nd outcome, 60% chance of finishing 1st or $60, 70-80% chance of finishing in the top 2 or expected value of $45 and you are gauranteed $40 if you win.
If I have AA KK QQ AK AQ, or any hand where I feel that I am even a 55% favorite, I would call this all in bet.
This is something that I have struggled with though. The way SNG and multis pay out is highly skewed to the top. So do you play safe to maximize profit or do you play for the big money at the top. Even if 2 players are all in ahead of me and folding will get me cash, taking out both of them will likely pay off more. And I would be a favorite to take out both to any 2 cards.
The only reason I may fold AA is if there are 21 players, 20 get a spot in a satalite or 10-20 receive virtually the same prize money, then I would fold. But that is the only case that I can think of.
Posted Tue May 04, 2004 11:16 am GMT by cayouche
It is a tough situation indeed.
I don't understand why everyone's assuming I or others only going for third place... heck, we're aiming at first place like everyone else.
If he plays those AAs, and win, sure he'll be a huge favorite to win but if he loses that hand, it's kinda hard to battle for first place.
In that particular situation, if he folds, he's still second in chips, close to first. So, why are we talking about third place here??
I always known texas HE to be a game of patience... am I suddenly wrong?? I'm sure other chances will come up to win big.
Back to my exemple, I had two pairs and she had one pair (I was right because she showed me), I was favorite to win her all-in, but I didn't play, I didn't take the risk of losing all. Instead, I played safe, I waited for a better situation, and I cleaned her about half an hour later, with A-Q to win the tournament.
Posted Tue May 04, 2004 11:31 am GMT by mindgame
Oops! This isn't advanced theory, it's basic.
So maybe I'm basically wrong. But what I'm trying to say is that a tournament presents situations where it must be correct to fold, no matter what your hand, because getting into a pot would represent risk and watching someone lose will move you up and into money. I don't think the idea is that complicated.
Posted Tue May 04, 2004 11:33 am GMT by Dave B
I was referring to the 1st example. In your case, I call too. 2 pair heads up is a MONSTER hand, esp w/ that flop.
Come on guys, where is the killer instinct? Yes, NLHE is a patient game... you have to be patient until you get AA or TWO PAIR heads up. THAT IS WHAT YOU ARE WAITING FOR...GAME OVER. BURY THEM.
I cant believe what I am hearing here. Do you want to go down w/ a monster hand or hope to outplay someone w/ an average one.
AA, flop comes k88, player goes all in I CALL. Sure he might have an 8, but I will take my chances on a the As. A 10 9 and I have KK, sure I fold to a large bet. I fold big hands, but not AA preflop or 2 pair on the flop. NO WAY.
Am I wrong here? I didnt read any books, but I do OK.
Posted Tue May 04, 2004 11:57 am GMT by Matt T
Everybody has their own style and I'm not sure even the "experts" would all agree on this one. I guess that's one of the great things about poker, very few absolutes.
| Quote: | | Am I wrong here? I didnt read any books, but I do OK. |
I concede that you have way more experience than I do Dave. I probably value your and mindgame's posts as much as anybody's (see my "Button move..." thread; hint, hint). I've read a few books but nothing beats experience IMO. That's why I just referenced Sklansky's book, I'm not experienced enough to back it up.
Posted Tue May 04, 2004 12:15 pm GMT by Geno
| Dave B wrote: | | I play these to win. 3rd place is almost as bad as losing. 2nd is ok, winning pays off. |
Truest thing I've read in a long time 
This one could run and run I reckon, I think I'll sticky it as it's a good discussion point.
Posted Tue May 04, 2004 12:35 pm GMT by cayouche
I never said I would do the same thing over and over. We were 3 players left and only 2 got money... and I just had that feeling, a bad feeling about all this, so I folded.
I knew it was a monster hand... and I also knew I was the better player on that table and that I would get more chances to win. The other guy was a fish (not even a fish, a worm! he somehow made it to final 3 by winning hands he didn't know he won until we told him) and the girl was very predictable.
I liked my chances even though I folded that hand. Like I said, I wouldn't do it over and over, but the results are, I won that tournament.
Now, let's just hope they don't read this .
Dave B, I still agree with you. AA preflop, 2 pairs flopped, monster hands, and they usually win. In my case, I folded and I won, in his case, he called and lost. Coincidence, yes. In my case, it was strategic.
Posted Tue May 04, 2004 1:07 pm GMT by racquet000
If Aces win 1/3 of the time. Is it smart to to put it against 4 hands. Thats a 1 in 4 chance. And your already behind.
Posted Tue May 04, 2004 1:26 pm GMT by Dave B
If Aces win 1/3 of the time? Aces win over 50% of the time against ANY 2 callers. Against most other 2 calling hands it is a 60-70% favorite.
Remember, you are short handed w/ only 5 players in the hand and only one caller so far. That is only 8 other cards being held-which 2 or 4 are you afraid of? Also-on the original example, the big stack had already folded, the other 2 possible callers only had 400TC (1/4 of your stack, so if you lose to the player w/ 1200, you are still in tied for 3rd. If you lose to the smaller stacks, you are likely still 2nd. A solid 3rd if you finish 3rd in the hand.
I TRY to lay low for a while and see what others have to say. I am finding this discussion VERY interesting.
Posted Tue May 04, 2004 2:15 pm GMT by mindgame
I'll add this and then shut up, because I'm NOT trying to get the last word in:
When Dave said "Come on...where's your killer instinct?" he's appealing directly to me, the limit player. My feeling is that tournament players must play differently. And that's why I don't often play tournaments. I just don't want to be that patient. In actual practice, I could never throw away AA (preflop). But in tournaments, surely it is wiser in some cases, however contrived, to do so.
Posted Tue May 04, 2004 2:58 pm GMT by Always_Bored
I just fold A,A every time i get them. I know im gonna lose anyway then have a bad beat story.
j/k but sometimes it feels like i lose every single time i get them.
Also I see where your coming from when you want to get into the money so you dont want to take the risk. However remember that you have the best starting hand and are taking the least amount of risk that the rest of them are. And if you win then you are going to have a lot more chips to give you a better shot at the real prize, first place. I would rather take risks and go for first then lay low and settle for second or third. Just my opinion though and i respect yours also and agree that it that does work.
Posted Tue May 04, 2004 3:26 pm GMT by cayouche
| Always_Bored wrote: | | Also I see where your coming from when you want to get into the money so you dont want to take the risk. However remember that you have the best starting hand and are taking the least amount of risk that the rest of them are. And if you win then you are going to have a lot more chips to give you a better shot at the real prize, first place. I would rather take risks and go for first then lay low and settle for second or third. Just my opinion though and i respect yours also and agree that it that does work. |
That I agree 100%. But what if you play and lose and finish 4th?? The guy was 2nd in chips, close to the leader. Had he fold, he would've probably finished at least 3rd or 2nd, if not win the tournament. Instead, he finished 4th.
I stick with my two quotes:
- It's better to win a little than to lose a lot.
- The goal is not to win every hand, but win at the end.
Posted Tue May 04, 2004 3:36 pm GMT by Always_Bored
| cayouche wrote: |
That I agree 100%. But what if you play and lose and finish 4th?? The guy was 2nd in chips, close to the leader. Had he fold, he would've probably finished at least 3rd or 2nd, if not win the tournament. Instead, he finished 4th.
I stick with my two quotes:
- It's better to win a little than to lose a lot.
- The goal is not to win every hand, but win at the end.
|
I understand that. I am not saying playing it safe and going for second third or still a possibility of getting first is the wrong way to play. Im just saying that I wouldnt do it. I may fold hands that i would normally play. However i would not fold premium hands like A,A unless I have reason to believe im beat. Preflop, im not beat so I will play them just like any other time I get them and either finish out of the money or more often then not go into the money with a commanding chip lead. Like I said before I completely understand why folding is a good choice too and would not blame someone for doing it. I just feel a few risks are worth it and that is one of them.
On a side note I usually play more aggressive when the money spots are coming up. People fold on almost any raise. I have been burned before but usually it works.
Posted Tue May 04, 2004 3:47 pm GMT by cayouche
To be honest, I don't know if I would fold AA in a home game though... maybe it's just the all-in situation that ticks me off, I don't know...
It's true that this situation is similar to mine, but not the same. He DID have the nuts when the other guy went all-in... In my situation, I had a huge hand, but maybe she had me beat anyway. Maybe it's the fact that after that hand, I wasn't totally predictable that made me win that tournament.
The 2 situations are different. Honestly, I don't know if I would've had the guts to fold AA preflop.
Posted Tue May 04, 2004 4:33 pm GMT by CamBam
WOW!! What a discussion!! FIRST: THANKS, THIS GIVES ME A LOT TO THINK ABOUT AND CONSIDER. Obviously, theory/practice on folding monsters generates alot of JUICE in everyone.
I'm reminded that the main goal is to lose as little as possible, while profiting from other's mistakes. That's why you don't need the NUTS to win.
I like Cayouche's example, where she "read" the danger, picked another battle and went on to win........
If I'm in the running to win, why risk 3/4 of my stack on a pre-flop horse race unless I've read a "tell" that gives me more edge. Particularly, if I'm playing well and have been picking the right spots to be agressive. Winning money requires being agressive at the right times.
I don't play for third, but for tournament (vs ring), where there is no recovery, I don't want to cripple my stack so I can't make a run for first....so from all the discussion, I'd probably risk 50% - 60% of my stack on a pre-flop horse race. But if it was 75% - 80% with the probablility of not being around to play for top money, if I lost.....like Cayouche, I'd pick another battle, where I was in position to win the war.
Like in real war.....don't waste your ammo on the skirmishes that weaken your supply and your energy on the way to the real thing.
fyi....I've busted out of 4 straight SNG's since my original post. In each I was 1st or 2nd going into short-handed game, and lost w/ big hands either going all-in or calling all-in. You will say I'm not reading some thing right.....and you would be correct. So, I'll adjust my game again. Forum threads like this have helped me alot.....at least now, I've developed a style that gets me the lead, rather than passive "lurking" and limping into 3rd w/ a short stack. I'm very satisfied w/ how my game is progressing, thanks to reading real player opinions on situations like these.
Live play has been better, I've reached final table in two multi-table tournaments.....maybe it's easier to read tells in person, so I've got a better percentage win on my all-in's.
Posted Tue May 04, 2004 4:54 pm GMT by cayouche
| CamBam wrote: | | I like Cayouche's example, where she "read" the danger, picked another battle and went on to win........ |
BTW, I'm a he. 
Seriously, I'm glad you've improved your game. This is what these forums are for.
Posted Tue May 04, 2004 5:01 pm GMT by Ninja
I would fold AA with 4 or more people. Besides that, nope. With two other people in there, it is VERY likely one holds AK or AQ, at which point you are a huge favorite. Then, the other person most likely has KK, QQ or maybe JJ. Because they take high cards out of each others hands, that gives them much less outs. However, in 99% of situations, I am raising and re-raising with AA, or going all-in.
Posted Wed May 05, 2004 2:16 pm GMT by mangothebear
I appreciate the difference in tournament poker from a regular poker in that staying in the game is more important than taking a big pot on a certain hand.
For those who support folding in this situation, they are saying "pick your battles, fold this one and pick a more opportune time to take the pot". My question is, WHEN is a more opportune time than having AA with one or two all-in bets? I mean, how often does this type of opportunity come around in a game anyways? Sometimes not even once. On the poker calculator at cardplayer.com, AA is a 68% favourite to win against KQs (15%) and JJ (16.9%). If you are too afraid to play THESE types of hands, you shouldn't be playing at all.
While tournament NLHE is a game of patience, its also a game of maximizing your opportunities at crucial moments. Sure, it might work against you. But so might any other hand. At some point, you're gonna have to risk it all. I'd rather risk it all holding pocket rockets.
Posted Thu May 06, 2004 12:15 pm GMT by Matt T
| Quote: | | For those who support folding in this situation, they are saying "pick your battles, fold this one and pick a more opportune time to take the pot" |
Not quite IMO. It's a tournament and one pot does not a tournament make (or ...can't see the forest for the trees...). We always hear of folks "falling in love with Aces" (hey, I'm one of them!) and we all know just how vulnerable they can be. The situation is very specific where you're almost 100% guaranteed to win real money by sitting back and watching. Last I checked, 'almost 100%' is better than 68% or 70%. Again, a very specific situation.
| Quote: | | If you are too afraid to play THESE types of hands, you shouldn't be playing at all. |
Or one could go the other way and say: If you aren't wise enough to take the 99% bet over the 68% bet, you shouldn't be playing at all. It has nothing to do with being afraid, you've got aces for crying out loud.
FWIW, in practice I'm not sure I have that fold in me either. And I'm not saying that is a strength. Probably just the opposite.
Just for the record, I love discussions like this and I intend zero hostility or disrespect to anyone. Sometimes it's hard to sense that in a post. 8)
Posted Thu May 06, 2004 12:39 pm GMT by LadeJarl
Hmmm... Very interesting thread.
Now, let's leave tells alone and look at the situation.
1. One player before you goes all in
The worst hand he may have is AA, just like you
If there are no callers, I'd go all in.
2. Two players before you go all-in
The worst they can have is Ax both. This will make sure you will not flop a set. If you put them on Ax, I'd go all-in since they don't have a pair and if they flop a pair, I still have the nuts. From time to time, they will make a set or beat you, but I'd say going all-in is still worth it.
If you put them on a smaller pair, I'd say it's 50/50 whether I'd go all-in. This is were tells come in along with knowledge of the player.
3. Three or more go all-in before you.
I'd fold! Too many callers makes the chances of beeing out-drawn too big for me
Posted Thu May 06, 2004 1:53 pm GMT by nicthestick
HOLY CRAP!!!!!!!!!
Are you kidding me????
Folding AA preflop in a SNG?
NEVER!!!!!
NOT A CHANCE!
I can see it post flop, maybe....
in a satelite, where there is nothing to gain....
But what the hell cards are you waiting for? 42 suited?
If you cant call an allin with AA, look for another game, like Crazy 8's, or Go Fish.
AA IS THE BEST STARTING HAND IN TEXAS HOLDEM!!!!!!!! Except for 42 suited.
I don't mean to be disrespectful of others opinions, but I am really struggling with this thread. I don't get it. I think that I understand tournament theory fairly well, and it really does not make sense to fold AA in the first post situation. JMHO.
Posted Thu May 06, 2004 2:03 pm GMT by Matt T
Not the first post, I was specifically referring to mindgame's example in the fourth post. I should have been more clear.
Posted Thu May 06, 2004 2:12 pm GMT by nicthestick
I get the fold in mindgames post, but not the first one.
Posted Thu May 06, 2004 2:23 pm GMT by mangothebear
OK, I think there are valid arguments to both sides.
However, like almost everything in life, the correct answer is that it all depends. On what? On what your main goal for the tournament is.
If your main goal is to stay in as long as you can to pick up the most prize money possible, you should probably fold, and watch as another player bits the dust. This way, you could pick up some real $ and still leave you in a decent position to make a run at top spot.
However, if your main goal is to WIN the tournament outright, then you gotta take this risk (for example, if #1 picks up a disproportionate slice of the money or if only the winner gets a free buy-in into a higher stakes tournament). You are an overwhelming favorite to win this hand and if you do win, you probably pick up a huge chip lead. You just have to ride it out and take down the last few players. There are no large gains without large risks, but this is actually a pretty small risk for the reward.
Fair?
Posted Thu May 06, 2004 11:56 pm GMT by Carson Cashman
I'd always play it, simply because I don't play to place in the money. I play to win the damn thing.
Thats all there is too it. No guts, no glory.
Posted Fri May 07, 2004 4:24 am GMT by Leo
no, i would never fold AA. ok, maybe i would if i'm playing the final table of WSOP and 6 people go all-in before me, this will probably never happen but still
i never throw away the best hand in hold'em before the flop, no way. i understand your arguments though mindgame. and i kinda agree with you on that you should play the way that's most profitable(sp?). as long as you place in the money you did good, you don't have to finish first everytime. i would rather finish in the money everytime i play rather than finishing first half the time and losing half the time. i belive most of you agree with this, those of you who don't, i wanna hear why
Posted Sat May 22, 2004 6:22 pm GMT by snoogins47
Great discussion all.
Great points on both sides.
It would really depend for me. I could definitely see myself laying it down
Seems to me you have to imagine that you are going to win the pot between 60-70% of the time.
Maybe it's a bit harder to give up the pot on pocket Aces...
However, it's a similar situation to raising all-in with a mid pair or whatnot. Sure, you know you can't be dominated, but you know a probable caller, especially from a big stack, will have overs. You're the favorite, sure, but by how much?
We'll say, that in a similar vein to Mindgame's scenario... you get dealt AA on the big blind, four handed. Short stack UTG goes all-in, second short-stack re-raises all-in, chip leader on the small blind calls, and it's on you.
You've got the edge, but it's not that huge, and if you lose, you're done. Of course here, you have the luxury of the fact that even if you don't win the pot outright, you can take down some side-pot lovin, and still end up even or to the good.
Remember, the "call" part is betting that you will win the pot. A raise, all-in to the chip leader, is just betting the rest of your stack that you have HIM beat. This is a subtlety I see many average players ignoring, but a very important one.
If two players are all-in, with the CL calling, and the first two are short stacked... depending on my chip count, and everybody elses, I might be apt to re-raise. I also may fold this. If calling the all-ins would jeopardize my stack on a loss, I would fold. If they were fairly short stacked and I could still be in position to win the tourney on a loss, I would re-raise all-in. I don't think I could ever call in this position.
If the CL is a much more sizeable stack than everybody else, with high blinds, and I myself was say, double the stack of the two lil'ums all-in, I'd re-raise for sure, knowing the CL is apt to be calling on a couple of high cards, maybe split, and I'm the huge favorite to double that part of my stack. Even if he IS on a high pair, the majority of my stack would be wagered on beating him and him alone, which would be the profitable play, I would say.
All in all, it very much depends on the situations I would be facing. I could definitely see myself laying this down, and definitely feel right moving my whole stack in as well.
I love theoretical poker discussions ;P
Posted Sat May 22, 2004 11:13 pm GMT by cayouche
It's the kind of situation where you kick yourself when you call and you lose, congrats yourself when you fold and end up to win.
As I'm writing these lines, I started a SnG, first hand, get dealt AA... ...BTW, I didn't go all-in...
Posted Sun May 23, 2004 3:11 am GMT by Jonniedough
Im skipping all the posts, too drunk to read everyones right now!!.........
Im sure its said but for me it be a tuff call.....Ive caught myself a couples times saying, ok, you gotta do this to make it in the money!! I think its alot about the table that matters!! But again AA is a tuff fold, Im sure Ill sun across this situation some time when I do.....Im folding to get in the money!!!! (if I remember this post)
Thats what we play for right??
Chip stack or not, I want the green
Posted Thu Jun 10, 2004 1:20 pm GMT by Ventrick
I agree 100% you call the All-In with AA everytime. I as well don't play to place in the money, I play to win. If you have the best hand and the opportunity to take a commanding chip lead on the table you go for it. Playing conservative and folding won't win you the tournament, it'll give the guy that wins the hand the ability to further muscle you later on.
Posted Thu Jun 10, 2004 4:01 pm GMT by Always_Bored
| Ventrick wrote: | | I agree 100% you call the All-In with AA everytime.. |
I dont know about going all in everytime. But a considerable raise is a must.
Posted Thu Jun 10, 2004 6:41 pm GMT by Ventrick
Didn't say I'd make the all in bet, I'd call an all in Pre flop.
Posted Thu Jun 10, 2004 6:51 pm GMT by Geno
Even if 9 people go all-in before me pre-flop - I'm going all-in. Statistically, I'm still favourite. Surely that is not hard to grasp?!
Posted Fri Jun 11, 2004 9:18 am GMT by mindgame
Amazing! The thread that just won't die. Must have hit a nerve with this puppy.
I'll just say this to give you all something to think about. First, I'm a little surprised that almost nobody agrees with me, or that those that do are certainly hedging. Because what we have here are serious players and this isn't even a close call. This is open and shut--in fact, those who are familiar with Sklansky's tournament volume will recognize this as virtually lifted from his work as an example of clearcut fold on the best possible hand.
So, number one, I am delighted. It is deeply gratifying to know that even among good players there are still wildly uncontrollable urges to gamble when gambling is completely unnecessary. In fact, poker--at least to the best players--should not involve gambling at all. It is, quintessentially, the game in which the solid player makes his living from gamblers. So why the hell are you even thinking about gambling????
The answer, of course, is ego. Beating the odds is a rush! Being stupid and getting away with it is gratifying and addictive. You are forgetting that it's one big poker game. It's never about winning the tournament, it's about showing a profit at the end of the year. "Winning the tournament" is for the ego. Poker may be played for the ego or for the money. Play for the former and eventually you have none of the latter. Forget that at your peril, gentlemen. Forget that and I will end up splitting your money with others of my kind. At Indy they say "Start your engines." We say "Gentlemen, open your wallets." This race, I assure you, is not to the swift.
Posted Fri Jun 11, 2004 10:12 am GMT by Dave B
I agree with you mindgame-but you are missing one thing. You ALWAYS have the nuts preflop w/ AA. I always try to put my money on the table when the odds are in my favor. W/ the payout structure of big tourneys always extremely top heavy, there is no situation when a dollar invested at the end of a tourney w/ AA would not yield more than $1 of expected return. That is exactly the kind of bet that I am waiting for. If you flop the top set w/ 2 suited cards on the flop do you not call an all in w/ one additional caller because one might make a hand that will beat you?
The ONLY situation that I MAY even CONSIDER not calling or raising any bet w/ AA is very early w/ a large entry fee (probably $500 or more) w/ 5 callers all in. In that case, I may only win 30% of the time and the 5:1 payoff is probably not worth the risk-since there is no gauranty that a win early will get me to the final table.
Posted Fri Jun 11, 2004 10:36 am GMT by mindgame
Agreed, agreed, agreed. I'm not saying calling is a bad bet...I'm just saying it must always be the SECOND BEST bet when compared to a sure thing. Gamblers take the second best bet because the payoff is huge. I'm a poker player. Go right ahead and gamble, by all means...be my guest. Let me lend you cab fare to my casino.
Posted Fri Jun 11, 2004 10:48 am GMT by Dave B
Just to clarify-this touney I just played.....lets say I am in 6th w/ AA UTG and I raise the 8000 blind to 16000. One player goes all in for 32000 and both the blinds call and are all in.
If I fold, I likely move up to 4th or 5th (barring a split pot). 4th pays $1,100 5th pays $770. 3th pays $1650, 2nd pays $2200 and 1st is $3300.
You would rather fold and take $1100 versus calling w/ the best hand and getting to $1650 if you win w/ a great shot at winning the entire thing (win will give you the chip lead). Lets assume that a fold leaves you with 32000, the win would give you 90000.
Posted Fri Jun 11, 2004 11:14 am GMT by racquet000
Ok i lied im going allin with them no matter who else is in.
Posted Fri Jun 11, 2004 11:58 am GMT by mindgame
Dave:
Yes.
That's not me, that's Sklansky, almost word for word. Hey, who am I to dispute the world's foremost authority? Now he will be the first to admit that he gets beaten every day by lesser players taking long odds and getting paid off. But he's been making a very, very good living playing poker for 35 years. Against them. And when those guys bust he ain't gonna lend 'em any money, because dumb money...well there's always more where that came from.
And just think about this scenario you cooked up. Right after that hand is over and you've moved up a couple seats and a couple hundred SURE THING dollars, you get a brand new hand.
Posted Fri Jun 11, 2004 1:06 pm GMT by Dave B
Man-I just couldnt disagree more.
I just couldnt live w/ myself if I left myself mucked AA in that position and didnt go on to win the hand. W/ blinds of 30% of my stack-I would be looking at 15 more hands before I am blinded out. I dont see getting a better chance to MAXIMIZE profits than that.
Fold-4th place in chips and 4th in prize money hoping for a playable hand in the next 15.
Call- 40 to 50% favorite to win hand, move to 3rd w/ the chip lead. Lose and am still likely in 5th place w/ a short stack but still a chance to move up.
I would be curious to see him at a final table. Do you think he would ever call any big bet? Or only act 1st????
Posted Fri Jun 11, 2004 1:35 pm GMT by mindgame
Fact is that Sklansky's at the final table more than most of the best in the world, but as you might guess he's only won once. Won't take the requisite risk. Instead he takes the money. I guess it's all about why you are there. Maybe you or I, we'd say no guts no glory. He looks at glory vs. money and thinks, "Hey, try to spend glory."
Posted Fri Jun 11, 2004 7:03 pm GMT by Geno
I'm with Dave all the way, I just can't see it any other way in this situation 
Posted Tue Jun 15, 2004 5:02 pm GMT by snoogins47
Well, can we all at least agree that in a cash game, moderate stakes (that is, you have a sufficient bankroll,) there should never be a time that you should drop the rockets?
;P
Posted Tue Jun 15, 2004 6:54 pm GMT by Ben4040
This has definitely been interesting to read. Folding AA would be very very hard to do, but I can see mindgame's point.
Posted Wed Jun 16, 2004 12:19 am GMT by ShoelessJoe
From experience, I have lost AA more often than one but that is only because I have been playing the hand wrong until recently.
Now that I know how to play the hand, I see myself winning more than losing but not as much as you should with pocket rockets but that is only because when I have them I feel like..."I only get this hand once a night so I better go big when I have it" completely ignoring the fact that there is a flush/straight/3 of a kind draw on the board.
Posted Thu Jun 24, 2004 9:30 am GMT by krakajak
Another time you might want to fold it is when your stack is so small that It doesn't matter.
I was in a multi-table, already in the money, and called and lost an all-in against a stack that was 15 chips smaller than mine. A few hands later I get AA. but even if I win with them, I'm only going to have 60 chips, and the blind is 800. Better to fold and hope a few people get knoced out, bumping up my position. As it turned out, the aces would have lost. A few people did get knocked out, I made it to the final table, won both of my blind hands, and got a lucky 6th place finish.
Posted Thu Jun 24, 2004 12:50 pm GMT by cayouche
Well....
The more I think about it the more I don't know if I could fold rockets on someone who raises me all-in.
I had rockets a few times lately and I thought about it (not to fold 'em, but 'What If'), and I'm not sure I would have the guts to fold the nuts preflop, because if I don't win that tournament, I'll think about them over and over again.
Think about it, say you fold your AA, and you lose a few hands later, you would certainly look back and punch yourself in the face for mucking them. However, if you play them, and even if you lose, of course you'll be pissed for a little while, then you'll say 'That's poker' and you'll forget about it... Of course, if you fold 'em and go on to win the tournament, you'll say that it was the greatest move you made in your illustrious career!!
Maybe you have to follow your gut feeling. If you fold'em, you have to accept the fact that you folded the nuts, and that you can still lose a few hands later. If you play them, of course the probabilities are on your side, but you can still lose. Ahhh... Zen...
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