drawing hands: a probability question |
|
Posted Sun May 09, 2004 1:22 am GMT by krakajak
i've heard that the probability of hiting a flush draw is roughly 35%, and so if pot odds are atleast 3:1, you should go for it. But there seems to be a problem with this reasoning. If I draw one card and miss, the chance that I will hit my flush on the river is about 6:1, so I would need at least those odds to stay in for the river. Of course, I might not get these odds, and may have to fold. So it seems to me that the initial figure of 35% should be discounted to account for the fact that you may not get to see the final card. But how much should you discount it?
Did you know that participating in a poker forum can help you improve your own game? Be it by sharing experiences or simply asking for help, participation in a forum helps you focus and keep 'on topic' which will help you improve your game. You can learn from other players feedback and from their experiences. Why the THP poker forums? We offer one of the best managed texas holdem poker forums available, and the community within is far more friendly than those typicaly found on other sites. We've made a 'lurkers edition' of the poker forum available here on Holdem Poker Online, but we encourage all visitors to register and join in on the conversations on TexasHoldem-Poker.com
Posted Sun May 09, 2004 4:00 pm GMT by MLT_Slim
I've seen discussions about this question before and the general consensus was to use the odds of hitting your hand on the next card in comparison with the pot odds in deciding weather or not to continue the hand. So the probability of hitting the flush on the turn (assuming you have 4 flush) is 9/47 or 19.15% with the odds being 80.85/19.15 or 4.2:1.
My 2 cents.
Posted Sun May 09, 2004 9:30 pm GMT by Avatar
krak, your forgetting that more money is put into the pot on the turn. So lets say there was 3 callers and then yourself on the flop making pot odds 3:1. Now on the turn if those 3 callers are still in, the pot odds are now 7:1.
Its the total big bets in the pot to your 1 bet that your figuring out for each round. Even bets you've made are no longer considered yours, but are part of the pot.
|
|
