Calculating Hitting cards on the flop/turn/river |
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Posted Sun May 23, 2004 5:51 pm GMT by Icecold99
correct me if i'm wrong
say i have bullets(A,A)
and i want to calculate the chances of hitting another ace on the flop
would the math be 2/50
because there is 50 unseen cards and 2 aces left in the deck
if so ... does that mean i have 4% of hitting another ace on the flop
how would i to calculate hitting 2 aces on the flop? if it's the same way to calcualte would it be teh same % to hit 3 of a kind as to hit a 4 of a kind ... because it'll still have 2/50 becuase i've only seen 2 cards and still have 50 unseen cards
how would i be able to calculate the odds of hitting a card in the turn and river
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Posted Tue May 25, 2004 6:42 pm GMT by MLT_Slim
2/50 would be correct for the next card only but since we are talking about a three card flop it is easier to use combinations. To figure the number of three card combos out of 50 unknown cards multiply 50*49*48/3*2*1 = 19600. Now each remaining A can combine with any two card combo from the remaining 48 cards (50 unknown - the 2 A's) 48*47/2*1 = 1128. Each A can combine with any of the 1128 two card combos (1128* 2 = 2256) making 2256 three card combos that contain an A. Now we have the numbers needed to figure out the probability of hitting a third A on the flop. Just divide 2256/19600 = .11510 or 11.5%.
to calculate hitting quads on the flop when you hold a pocket pair is 48/19600 = .002448 or .25%. The two aces can combine with any of the remaining 48 unknown cards.
I hope this makes sense.
Posted Wed Sep 22, 2004 12:04 pm GMT by vegasholdem
AA to AAA on the flop: it's 7.7 to 1 against(most books will say 7.5 to 1 against...depends on how you round out numbers...)
AA to AAAA on the flop: it's 707 to 1 against!!!!
AA to AAAA by the river: it's 118 to 1 against!!! 
(i do all the calculations myself; so my odds might disagree with some authors)
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