Pot odds/outs don't seem reasonable to me. |
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Posted Sat Jul 18, 2009 11:37 am GMT by dubfrontsidah
This seems like flawed logic to me. I am using the example on this page: http://www.texasholdem-poker.com/odds
Step 1: Count the outs you have and divide by the number of cards in the deck
In the example on the website:
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For example, say you are in a $5/$10 texas hold'em game with Jack-Ten facing one opponent on the turn. You have an outside straight draw with a board of 2-5-9-Q, and only the river card left to make it. Any 8 or any King will finish this straight for you, so you have 8 outs
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Step 2: Divide the outs by the remaining cards in the deck, in this case 8/46 is almost 1/6.
Step 3: Divide all the money you can win by the money you are calling, in this case $200/10 =20 (or 1/20)
Step 4: Compare 1/6 to 1/20. 1/6 is better than 1/20, so you should call them.
Ok, so what I am seeing is that if I have a 1/6 chance to make a straight, I should place a wager on that? If the opponent has not folded by now, he MOST LIKELY will have a Q in his hand. I would rather wager on him beating my 1/6 chances that he has the Q if he has stuck in it this long.
What am I missing from here?
Does my question make sence or should I refraise it?
It would seem to me that I would need to count my outs and then compare it to my opponents actions (If there is a 2-5-9-Q he probally had a 2 or a 5 or a 9 or a q by this point.. Shouldn't I have folded long long ago on the flop? Is a straight on the river really worth betting for?
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Posted Sat Jul 18, 2009 5:03 pm GMT by HalfSugar
There is one important thing to remember when considering pot odds - if I hit the card I need, will it guarantee that I win the pot? Or to put it another way, will I have a 'made' hand?
If the answer is yes, you then need to assess whether calling a bet (purely from a statistical point of view) is a profitable play if you ran the same scenario a million times.
In this example, if you are 1/6 to make the winning hand and you are calling at 1/20, you 'should' call.
It doesn't matter how you got to that point of the hand, or what action has gone before, we are merely looking at this one point in isolation.
There are many factors to consider which are not purely statistical, for example, let's say the size of the 'correct' call is 1,000 tournament chips and you only have 3,000 chips left, you would not necessarily call (depending on just how 'correct' the call was) because you are committing 1/3 of your chips on a hand that, if it misses, will not win the pot. However, in isolation, pot odds is a purely mathematical way of assessing whether calling a bet is good or bad in the long run.
Posted Mon Jul 20, 2009 7:21 pm GMT by Gunslinger
You are not BETTING that you will make a straight, you are CALLING a bet. It is profitable in the long run for you to call that bet because, although you will lose $10 5 out of 6 times, you will win $200 1 out of 6 times. So, for every 6 times you are in that situation, you will win on average $200 - $50 = $150. This equates to an average profit of $25 ($150/6) everytime you make the call, as opposed to $0 if you fold.
Like Half Sugar said, it doesn't matter how we got here, or how the money got in the pot. At any time in poker, we want to make the decision that is the most profitable in the long run.
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