Posted Wed May 26, 2004 6:52 pm GMT by Wada
Ok heres situation Im confused here.
I have AJ and flop is K,Q,x. Pot odds are currently 6 to 1. Im figuring on 4 outs to make my straight right?
Now looking at Sklanskys Advance Holdem book in Appendix A chart on Probability. He has 4 outs listed at 16.5% chance of making the hand. I convert the 16.5% to odds and I get 5 to 1. Which makes it correct for me to bet right? Another player said it was 11 to 1 odds. Then after discussing it he said that after the turn it would become 11 to 1 odds.
My question is - how does it become 5 to 1 odds on the turn and then jump to 11 to 1 odds on the river to make a straight draw in my case?
That does not make sense to me can someone clarify this for me.
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Posted Wed May 26, 2004 7:46 pm GMT by Ninja
On the flop, you have four outs to make your straight. You have about an 8.5 chance to make it either on the turn or the river. You add those together, to get about 17% (Or 16.5, as you said). You have about 1/11 to hit it on either, but because you have two chances to hit, the probability is doubled (2/11). After the turn, you only have one chance to hit, therefore the probability is multiplied by one, effectively making it stay the same.
Make sense?
Posted Wed May 26, 2004 7:56 pm GMT by Wada
 No.
You said 8.5 chance to make it EITHER on turn or river. Now if we are talking strictly about the turn. 8.5 chance to make it on the turn. To convert 8.5 into odds it is 100-8.5=91.5 Now 91.5/8.5 is 10.76. Which is roughly 11. Hence 11 to 1 odds????
Now you are saying because I have the turn AND river (two chances instead of one) it changes from 8.5 chance to roughly 17% chance.
So the probability is doubled even though its still 4 outs on both chances, but DOES NOT make it 8 outs??
How did you come up with 8.5 chance from 4 outs?
Posted Wed May 26, 2004 8:01 pm GMT by MLT_Slim
4/47 = .08516 = 8.5% to hit on turn.
4/46 = .08695 = 8.7% to hit on river.
Posted Wed May 26, 2004 8:06 pm GMT by Wada
Ok that makes sense. But now with 4 outs it is not 4/43 for turn and 4/42 for river??? You still count the actual outs in your total amount of cards left in the deck?
Posted Wed May 26, 2004 9:32 pm GMT by MLT_Slim
yes, the outs are included with the total amount left in deck.
Posted Thu May 27, 2004 9:27 am GMT by Wada
Ok.
The pot was $6 and the bet was $1. Was it okay for me to bet on the flop having two cards to come? I got my 10 on the Turn to make my straight. 6 to 1 pot odds; 5 to 1 odds of making the hand.
Had I missed the straight on the turn then it becomes 11 to 1 to make it on river which means that I fold - right?
Posted Thu May 27, 2004 2:12 pm GMT by Sh1rp
That's why you're supposed to try to factor in implied pot odds. If you think he's gonna bet another $2 after the turn, it becomes $3 invested to try to win $11 (the original 6 plus his 1 and your call plus his 3 on the turn) at about 3.6 to 1.
Posted Thu May 27, 2004 4:04 pm GMT by nicthestick
the implied odds at work..... Dont chase a 4 outer with one caller.
it is profitable to chase a 8 or 9 outer (open ended str8 and flush draw) with at least 2 callers on the flop, 2 on 4th street, and 1 on the river.
Posted Wed Sep 22, 2004 12:33 pm GMT by vegasholdem
| Wada wrote: | ... Another player said it was 11 to 1 odds. Then after discussing it he said that after the turn it would become 11 to 1 odds.
My question is - how does it become 5 to 1 odds on the turn and then jump to 11 to 1 odds on the river to make a straight draw in my case?
That does not make sense to me can someone clarify this for me. |
If you're on a 4straight gutshot draw(4outs) on the flop :
it's 11 to 1 against with 1 card to come(turn)
it's about 5 to 1 against with 2 cards to come(turn and river)
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