Out of curiosity...what would you do? |
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Posted Fri May 28, 2004 11:39 am GMT by Jauron
Hypothetical question here, not anything that really has happened to me yet.
If it matters at all we'll say the following is true: Playing $0.5, $1 no limit live game (no tourney). You have about $130 and that is an average stack, in this case the two playing in the hand have slightly more than you.
Your the big blind, first player limps in, the button brings it in for a strong raise, say 5x the big blind or $5. You decide he's probably got an overpair or two overcards and your holding 7d 8d. For whatever reason (I don't want to get into if you should be calling this, just that you have) you decide to see the flop and call. The first better just calls. There is now $15 in the pot.
Flop comes As, 5d, 6d and you now have four parts to the straight flush. You check, the next guy checks and the raiser bets it out for $10. You call, and the other guy reraises him, another $10. The original better goes all in for a substantial amount (enough to put you all in, we'll say it's $105 more), it's now on you. Do you call? Do you think your call would induce the check raiser to also call now that he can triple up if his hand holds up, or by calling do you think the best you will do is double up?
You have a 54% chance of hitting at least a straight....do you call it? I'm interested in seeing some of the answers.
What if it's just two of you in the pot and the guy just goes all in after the flop?
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Posted Fri May 28, 2004 12:13 pm GMT by Dave B
I try to always play risk neutral, if a $1 invested has a $2.01 expected return, then I will call. In this case, after the flop, I stay in the hand. They way they are betting, I put them on AA AK AQ 55 66. In each case, you are a winner if the flush hits or str8 hits. I see the 2nd player calling after committing $20 to a pot on a check raise. Esp if you are in and he is paid 4:1 on his hand.
The only hand I would be concerned about it AdKd. If one puts you all in then the other folds, I would seriously consider laying down my hand.
When evaluating the hand and seeing betting like this, dont discount that one or both players might have a set, giving them 7 outs (28%) chance of hitting a boat or quads. Then only your str8 flush draw will win.
Posted Sat May 29, 2004 12:49 am GMT by Jauron
nobody else wants to pony up eh?
Well here's what I think. If I'm that guy with that hand I probably think the following. The original better has at least AK or AQ. He hit his pair, no way does he have AK of the board suite, or he's an idot IMHO. You have a guy playing back at you with top pair, top kicker and the nut flush draw and you want to be that aggresive? A simple reraise should get you what you need, for the guy with anything less than two pair to settle down again.
The second guy to me has two pair or trips IMHO. He check raised cause he got lucky on the flop. He might of limped in with suited connectors or a low pocket pair and thinks he's getting paid off. If he does have either one he's either got no flush draw or needs to hit runner runner. There is no play to make here anymore. If he's drawing at the flush then check raising the better makes no sense, since he has to act before him each time.
If I assume my information is correct then I think I have too many outs not to get my money in there with 2 callers. I think any hand I make is going to win the pot unless I get unlucky and the board pairs or I miss. I think I'm probably the only one drawing to the flush as well, or MAYBE the guy going all in has the Ace of that suite but still needs runner runner to make his hand. Either way there is no hand that I'm afraid of because the hand I'm drawing to will beat any hand already made, it's just a matter of me making it. And at 54%, I've never had better odds to triple up IMHO.
Just my thoughts.
Posted Sun Jun 20, 2004 12:51 pm GMT by UMCorian
This is a good one. All right, assuming you called a raise with a suited connector and saw this flop, you'd have some decisions to make.
I've got button figured for a set, probably either As or 6s (though more likely the former), if he has been playing fairly good poker. I'm figuring the second guy who called preflop and liked what he saw and having flopped two pair (A5 or A6). Unless he had AdXd, I cannot see him calling with just high pair here and I don't think he'd call on just a flush draw (besides, since you have two ds, his odds of being on a flush draw as well decrease significantly).
With a 54% chance to make a straight or a flush, and a chance to triple up if you do, mathematically, you should call.
(btw: I didn't look at other replies to this yet.)
Posted Wed Jun 30, 2004 9:42 am GMT by nicthestick
wouldnt you lead at this pot? with the sf draw, it seems like it merits a bet from ep to me.
Posted Thu Jul 29, 2004 5:52 pm GMT by alphakenny1
personally i'd muck the hand. personally i cannot call my whole stack on a draw. yes you are getting excellent odds to call but me personally i cant call all my money just on a draw. i mite have lead out on the flop or look for a check raise but i have nothing but 8 high. maybe in a tournament i mite call my money on that but in a cash game i just cant. this to me is any easy muck. but hey, whats the point of the game if you dont gamble?
Posted Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:23 pm GMT by TheDTrain-TheReckoning
I would fold because 54% is not enough to call that big of a raise. Better to just wait for a better hand. Besides, he might have a middle pocket pair.
Posted Tue Aug 03, 2004 11:51 pm GMT by invast
I would have folded pre-flop
Posted Wed Aug 04, 2004 1:20 am GMT by Jonniedough
Im with Alphakenny on this one, the only reason you should call is if theres a shit load of people in the room, you feel lucky and wanna add alot of excitment if you hit.
Altough odds and all that good stuff help, I know to fold. Wait a few hands then hit both of them for what they have.
although it would be a great hand to see played out. There tons of bad beat stories posted everyday with hands such as that, but a good poker player knows the right plays, luck, or odds.
Posted Fri Aug 20, 2004 11:07 pm GMT by PokaJoka
1st you arent getting great pot odds. 2nd the chances of u hitting that straight flush is 2/47. Now forget about the straight draw and the flush draw. Im saying this because one of the two players has to be on that flush draw (maybe the second one or maybe both). Even if u do make that 35% chance of hitting that flush it aint that high buddy. And words from the wise here: Never call an all in bet that is called by another player unless u have something, NEVER EVER ON a DRAW (unless ur chris moneymaker the luckiest SOB ever)...... I had to learn that the hard way. And u also have to really know what kind of players you're dealing with.
Posted Wed Oct 13, 2004 9:47 pm GMT by salt_bagel
Bet it every time. Here's why (get ready for a huge over-analysis):
If both are smart players, I see 2 possibilities and one of them is the one you don't want.
The first option is that they both have a set. The check-raiser has a made hand I can't see them betting 2 pair and a backdoor flush because they wouldn't be in the hand to start. In that case the button may have top set. You would want to call in this spot, because they hold each other's outs and at most one of yours. There are only 5 outs left to bust your flush or straight. You are 5 cards out of a remaining 42 (after counting everyone's pocket cards, the flop cards, and the card that makes your hand). After doing some math with the 54% chance of hitting, it makes you about 50% to triple up. In rare situations, your straight flush will sink their boats and quads. So in this situation, math-wise, you should do it every time.
The other possibility is the check-raiser has a set and the button has AKhearts. I think this is possible with a crafty player, because it is reasonable to put the check-raiser on a set, but not the aces. If the player with AKhearts goes all-in over the check-raise, he's not necessarily making a wrong move: the check-raiser may fold thinking the button has aces (unless he's committed his stack), or the button can still get him with a flush.
In this second situation, the button semi-bluffing with AKhearts, your odds are toast. All your flush cards are counterfeit except your straight flushes, so you have 8 outs instead of 15. They have a total of 13 outs that beat you anyway. You now are only around 15% to win. Also, if the other guy folds, you don't get to triple up, and you are still a big dog in the hand.
Now how often should you be worried about this second situation? If the guy is a good player, the heavens would still have to be aligned exactly, and he would have to be willing to make a seriously ballsy move just at the moment when all the good vibes in the universe are flowing through him. Or alternatively, he has that hand and doesn't read into it much and just decides to gamble.
Let's say that each situation happens an equal number of times. You will lose in the long run. If the first situation happens >40% more often than the second, you will win in the long run. Now consider that a pair preflop is about 20 times more likely to be dealt than AKsuited.
And as an aside, all the above stuff assumes that these players aren't just bad. If they do have worse hands, then you win closer to the 54%.
My conclusion is that while the possibility of AKhearts is scary and puts you at a disadvantage if it's there, the chances are good that it's not there. If you believe this, then you should go in every time.
Posted Mon Jan 03, 2005 4:31 am GMT by Verdi
| TheDTrain-TheReckoning wrote: | | I would fold because 54% is not enough to call that big of a raise. Better to just wait for a better hand. Besides, he might have a middle pocket pair. |
The sum shouldn't matter if your bankroll is big enough. If you fold because of the large sum you're playing scared.
Posted Sun Jan 09, 2005 6:15 pm GMT by Grim
put 130 bucks on the table...straight up.
flip a coin. heads...you win, tails...I win...winner take all. you also don't get to see what side the coin starts out on.(yes, it does make a sligh difference depending on how the flip is done.  )
if that's a risk you want to take, 50/50(considering it's a 54% chance, that's a realtive analogy), then play it. if you don't, forget it. I know what i would do.(the latter, keep my cash)
for a quarter my chips,absolutley,half maybe, but not for all of them.
I'm a tight player...but that's just what I would do. I know people that would call in a heartbeat.
Posted Thu Jan 20, 2005 12:39 pm GMT by snoogins47
We'll roughly say you're getting 1.6 to 1 immediately if the check-raiser folds. If he calls, it's about 2.6 to 1.
If the guy who pushed has mirrored sunglasses on and you see AX of diamonds, you can safely fold
If you're going to end up head to head against a set, you're basically breaking even, getting slightly the best of it if my 1.6 to 1 figure is accurate (it's rough, considering rake, and considering this situation was pretty rough to begin with.). If you're head to head against two pair, you're solidly getting the best of it by calling. If you're up against two "made hand" type hands and the third player trails in, you're getting way the best of it. And made hands are typically what you see people betting/raising with.
Basically, the only way I can see you getting the worst of it is if you're up against two bigger hearts. Worst case scenarios: You're a 2 to 1 dog heads up getting 1.6 to 1, or you're a 3 to 1 dog in a threeway pot, getting 2.6 to 1.
While your odds are hurt significantly when the bigger heart draw is out there, you aren't really losing that much when it does happen. I don't have exact numbers here, but I think you'd have to be 90+% sure that an opponent is holding a higher heart draw than yours in order to safely fold this, and I think it would take an exceptional player read to get that (read as:you can't fold.)
You guys are scaring me here, telling him to fold and "wait for a better hand," saying you'd call if it was half your chips but not all of your chips.. telling him not to call an all in with "just a draw" because he doesn't "have anything..."
Posted Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:16 pm GMT by The Nutz
Damn snoogins... next time you come up to SE Michigan, you need to drop by and give me some lessons! Love readin' your stuff man. 8)
Posted Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:46 pm GMT by KINGJACK
| Jauron wrote: | Hypothetical question here, not anything that really has happened to me yet.
If it matters at all we'll say the following is true: Playing $0.5, $1 no limit live game (no tourney). You have about $130 and that is an average stack, in this case the two playing in the hand have slightly more than you.
Your the big blind, first player limps in, the button brings it in for a strong raise, say 5x the big blind or $5. You decide he's probably got an overpair or two overcards and your holding 7d 8d. For whatever reason (I don't want to get into if you should be calling this, just that you have) you decide to see the flop and call. The first better just calls. There is now $15 in the pot.
Flop comes As, 5d, 6d and you now have four parts to the straight flush. You check, the next guy checks and the raiser bets it out for $10. You call, and the other guy reraises him, another $10. The original better goes all in for a substantial amount (enough to put you all in, we'll say it's $105 more), it's now on you. Do you call? Do you think your call would induce the check raiser to also call now that he can triple up if his hand holds up, or by calling do you think the best you will do is double up?
You have a 54% chance of hitting at least a straight....do you call it? I'm interested in seeing some of the answers.
What if it's just two of you in the pot and the guy just goes all in after the flop? |
I think the only worry you can have here is AXd...
Why...
Both players seems to be protecting their hand.
So they have 2 pairs,
Trips
or
Top pair top kicker
and you definateley have the pot odds to call it.
I would call it unless this is the last 105$ in my bankroll.
Whats funny here is if you win it the other 2 will cry to a bad beat, but you had the odds to call pre flop and on the flop.
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