In a World full of fat people - amarillo slim |
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Posted Mon May 31, 2004 3:49 am GMT by SmilinMark21
Dear All
Have you read this book? it is really good in general and i really respect Amarillo but there is a few stories in their which i doubt but one in particular that sticks in my mind as something i dont believe, would like to ask others opinions
the story about picking 30 people at random and 2 of them having the same birthday which he states as having worked for him on more than one occasion, what do others think of this??
thanks
Mark
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Posted Sat Aug 14, 2004 7:47 am GMT by SmilinMark21
thought there would have been more readers of this book out there....shame
Posted Sat Aug 14, 2004 11:45 am GMT by wEbMaStEr
i think maybe you posted this a lil early for most of the usa based players who tend to dominate on this board.
I haven't read this book, and i wish i had read it before the recent child abuse charges against him had come about because now i wont be.
without being judgemental about him because of these charges and to answer your post......
i dunno  i imagine there is some basis in probabilty to this, like you could probably pick 6 random people and 2 of them would have same starsign or something.
Posted Sat Aug 14, 2004 2:39 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| SmilinMark21 wrote: | | the story about picking 30 people at random and 2 of them having the same birthday which he states as having worked for him on more than one occasion, what do others think of this?? |
There is a statistical basis for this, although I don't remember the specifics. But basically, just as you wouldn't expect a random selection to yield a group people all with the same birthday, the opposite is equally unlikely. The surprising part of it is the small size of the sample you need to illustrate the idea. I thought it was larger than 30, but like I said, I don't remember the specifics.
Posted Sat Aug 14, 2004 2:42 pm GMT by tmiesen359
i read this book too..... and unlike webmaster i read it before i learned of the child molestation charges and i loved the book. however.... i dont think all of those stories are completely 100 percent the truth, but it was an entertaining book. as for the birthday thing.... its probably true especially if you do they bet in a "random" situation where you know there will be a pair of twins in the area :D
Posted Sat Aug 14, 2004 3:00 pm GMT by Leon_the_Pro
| SmilinMark21 wrote: |
the story about picking 30 people at random and 2 of them having the same birthday which he states as having worked for him on more than one occasion, what do others think of this??
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He had a 70% chance each time. This is calculated same way as you determine if you will hit the flush draw post-flop.
Person has a birthday that is 1 of 365 days. Chance of next person not having that birthdya are 364/365, next person not matching either 363/365 etc. 1 - (364/365 * 363/365 * 362/365 ......... 336/365) = 70.6%.
Posted Sat Aug 14, 2004 4:06 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| Leon_the_Pro wrote: | | He had a 70% chance each time. This is calculated same way as you determine if you will hit the flush draw post-flop. |
And since he was probably getting at least even money on the bets, maybe even getting odds, it's a pretty good prop wager.
Posted Sun Aug 15, 2004 9:20 am GMT by SmilinMark21
cheers for the response folks, i read the book before i had heard about the child molestation charges, actually i posted this before i heard
to be honest i havent read that much into it but guess it would open up a can of worms, as usually you would imagine being his age this wouldnt have beenn first time if it is indeed true, does anyone know what has happened? is he indeed been found guilty or has it been dropped?
returning to the birthday thing, my thinking was around the lines of twins, just a lot of the stories are very good in the book often almost unbelieavable hence my doubt with this one also
Posted Sun Aug 15, 2004 1:20 pm GMT by wEbMaStEr
There is a thread on his charges here if you click this link......
http://www.texasholdem-poker.com/forum/t3484/amarillo-slim?highlight=amarillo+slim
As far as i know the charges involve a young male family member, last i heard he has admitted the charges, or plead guilty or whatever the legal definition of what he has done is, he is not contesting them, something like that.
Don't feel worried cos you have read or are discussing his book, i have nothing against his book (not having read it) or people who have read it and want to discuss it. I just kinda slipped that in there cos it looked like you hadn't heard.
Posted Mon Aug 16, 2004 1:07 pm GMT by SmilinMark21
Webmaster, where abouts in scotland do you play? i am from Glasgow hence i ask
Mark
Posted Tue Aug 17, 2004 3:23 am GMT by sinc
The birthday thing is true, it was one of the things I learned in OAC finite lol, although i don't remember it exactly. I think the poster above has it right with his 70% figure. The thing has nothing to do with twins either.. It seems really crazy when you think about it at first but when you do the math it does work out. I had 4 different classes at that point and there were a set of the same bdays in each 
Posted Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:21 am GMT by wEbMaStEr
| SmilinMark21 wrote: | Webmaster, where abouts in scotland do you play? i am from Glasgow hence i ask
Mark |
I don't play anywhere "live" I know they have hold 'em at Gala Riverboat sundays, tuesdays, wednesdays? i think it is, but what with work etc. it's just easier to play online. should hopefully be getting a home game together fairly soon tho :D
Posted Tue Aug 17, 2004 12:51 pm GMT by SmilinMark21
Have played in riverboat only a couple of times, i have been playing more at wabash in the east end
see i would play online but i feel "live" poker is more interactive and more learning involved
good luck with the home game though
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