straight vs. 2 high pair on turn |
|
Posted Tue Jun 22, 2004 8:08 pm GMT by krakajak
I usually stick to 1/2 and 2/4, but today I decided to try $5/10 for a change. I was already down big from two nut flush draws that didn't hit, and got AJ. I raised pre-flop with 3 callers. flop came AKJ. Two guys before me checked, I bet. The guy after me called, and one guy before me called, the other guy folded. A ten came on the turn, and the guy before me came out betting. He obviously hit his straight. I think: if I get lucky and hit my full on the river, I can bust this guy. But then I think about how the odds are 46/4, or 11.5 to 1 against it, and I fold. The other guy calls. Another J came on the river. The first player bets, the other one raises.
To me it is obvious that they each have a queen, and that they will split the pot. I can understand the initial bet, because the first guy might have put the other guy on two pair, but I just don't get the raise. The second guy should know that the first guy has the straight, and that he won't fold, so all the raise does is feed the rake. And that's how it went down, they each had a queen and split the pot.
Anyway, to my question: did I make a good fold, or should I have gambled on hitting the full? Let's say 1 bet equals $5. before the flop there were 10 bets in the pot. There were 4 more bets after the flop, plus the 2 bets from the first guy on the turn. I didn't know if the guy after me would call or fold. Lets say it was 50/50, so I'll count him as 1 more bet. So, as of the turn, I’m getting 17/2 odds on a 11.5/1 shot. At this point, it seems like I made a good fold. But, did my implied odds on the river if I made my hand justify a call? Even assuming the guy behind me folds, there are too many possibilities between me and the guy before me to consider, so I need to assume a few things in order to simplify my calculation. I will assume that he would not fold his, and I will also assume that the paired board would scare him enough so that he would not re-raise me. (although for the purpose of my analysis, these possibilities cancel each other out, in reality, the chance he would re-raise is much higher than the chance he would fold, so we'll give an extra 1/2 bet in favor of me calling).
Other than a re-raise or fold, there would either be check/bet, giving me 2 bets, or a bet/raise/call, giving me 4 bets. Lets say the odds are even either way, so I'll say I could get 3 more bets out of the 1st guy. and since there's a 50/50 chance the guy behind me would stay in, we'll say I could get half that from him on the river. So, I get 3 bets from the guy before me, 1 and a half bets from the guy after me, plus an extra half bet added in for the slim chance that I might get a re-raise and get to cap it. So now I'm getting 23/2 odds on an 11.5 to one shot, or even money. It didn't really matter which way I played my hand.
Now for the tricky part. No player with AA, JJ, or AJ would have folded pre-flop, or on the flop. So, I can safely assume that all 8 players who folded had at least one card that was not an ace and not a jack. Plus, I know the player before me has a queen, so there is another Non-ace/non-jack that is not in the deck. Since I know there are at least 9 non-ace/non-jacks that are not in the deck, That increases my chances of hitting an ace or a jack on the river to 37/4, or 9.25 to 1, giving me very strong odds to call. So I guess I made a stupid fold. But please let me know if there is a flaw in my analysis.
Oh, and in case anyone is wondering: No, this isn't what I thought while I was sitting at the table, although I wish it was. It took me quite awhile to think this through. But someday, hopefully.
Did you know that participating in a poker forum can help you improve your own game? Be it by sharing experiences or simply asking for help, participation in a forum helps you focus and keep 'on topic' which will help you improve your game. You can learn from other players feedback and from their experiences. Why the THP poker forums? We offer one of the best managed texas holdem poker forums available, and the community within is far more friendly than those typicaly found on other sites. We've made a 'lurkers edition' of the poker forum available here on Holdem Poker Online, but we encourage all visitors to register and join in on the conversations on TexasHoldem-Poker.com
Posted Wed Jun 23, 2004 1:45 am GMT by boden12
With a flop of AKJ and a pre-flop raise, your 2 pair might not have been good from the beginning (someone may have had AK or Q10s). Even if you hit your A on the river you couldn't be sure you had it, you really needed a jack to fall. Also in higher limit games (5/10) you have to know your players. Better players will often bluff at scare cards on the board (turn is a 10 with a flop of AKJ) and win the pot right there. Tho if he was a tighter player he probably had something more like AQ or QQ and hit the straight. Then again, he could've had pocket 10s or even A10
Posted Wed Jun 23, 2004 7:46 am GMT by Dave B
Dont make it too complicated. I would assume that As full Js or Js full As would be a winner. 4 outs or 8%. $10 to call the turn and see the river so 10/.08=$125. So if the pot is $125 you call. If the pot is $110-120 already and you believe that they will call a river bet or raise, then your implied pot odds will say to call as well.
Posted Fri Jun 25, 2004 10:33 am GMT by krakajak
Dave, I figured on at 8% at the table, and I was about even money. I go on something I call "reverse-tilt" after losing a few hands. This means I don't want to loose any more money, so I play way too tight. So I folded.
But after I thought about it for a while, I figured out that my odds were much better than 8%. Here's how I figured it out.
Normal odds calculations go as follows: 4 outs, 46 cards, 8%. But then I thought about it some more, and figured that no one would have folded if they had AA, JJ, or AJ, and since 7 people folded, each of them had at least 1 card that wasn't an A or a J. I could safely eliminate all these non-A, non-J cards from the deck, so I really had 4 outs out of 39 cards, giving me better than a 10% chance of catching my card.
|
|
