pot odds and chasing question |
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Posted Thu Jul 01, 2004 12:09 am GMT by darcy tucker
Say you play from the button with ace-4 suited hearts with 7 limpers which includes the big blind. You are therefore getting 7-1 pot odds.
Now comes the flop of jack(clubs)-3 hearts- 7-hearts
You therefore have the nut flush draw which is 4-1 chance of hitting. Since the 7-1 pot odds are greater than the odds of making the flush (and will only get better right?) is it correct to chase all the way to the river if you know for sure the flush will be the winning hand?
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Posted Thu Jul 01, 2004 1:56 am GMT by JohnnyCache
It's correct to take the next card. It may not stay correct to chase the river. Pot odds are revised with each card. when the turn comes, you might have to recalculate - especially in NL. For example, you can't say you are chasing clear to the river on the basis of pre-flop pot odds if someone tosses out, say, a raise of 20 B. Blinds - now you have to call a bet of virtually one to one on a chance of about 36%.
BUT - if you call that bet for some reason, and someone opens for, say, one big blind, you have one bet against a 18% chance of winning 29. . . now it's tinkin time. . .
52-5 = 47
9/47=.191 = 2%
52-6=46
9/46=.195 = 2%
9*2*2=36% (actually more like 33 - cause of the rounding - but 2% an out gives you good enough figures for most quick calculations in poker)
and 4-1 is payout odds - the flush hits 1 in 4 times. (actually 1 in 3)
Posted Thu Jul 01, 2004 7:45 am GMT by Dave B
If fact-if you play str8 math, then you should be raising (in limit) w/ the nut flush draw in late position if there are 3 others in the pot.
Not only does each $1 bet have and expected return of $1.36 for 3 others or $2.88 for 7 others. Now some will likely fold, but w/ 7 in the pot, at least 3 will usually call.
Here is the added benefit, now you get to the turn, lets assume that 4 others call your 2 bet and 3 fold. You now have 20 small bets in the pot, and only a 15% chance of hitting. Now you need 6 players to make pot odds, for raises, but there is pot odds to call one bet if someone bets in front of you.
Personally-I dont do this too often. I dont like to raise before my hand is made. Also, if you do raise, someone will put you on a solid hand or a flush draw. If the 3rd suited card hits the board, the you may not make as much.
Posted Thu Jul 01, 2004 11:58 am GMT by darcy tucker
Okay guys i'm back with some more questions.
In limit hold'em can pot odds seriously get worse as the hand advances? Also is this how you figure out pot odds. I'm learning from ken warren teaches hold'em.
I have ace-4 suited hearts on the button
1) Preflop 7 callers including me which equals 8 total small bets in the pot. I am getting 7-1 pot odds. Correct?
2) Flop I'm on the button and everyone folds except the guy right before me who calls. I call his bet. Now there is 10 total small bets in the pot and i got pot odds of 9-1 correct?
3) Turn Now according to Warren I take that total of 10 small bets, minus 1 small bet (to cover cost of rake and dealer tip) and divide by 2 to convert the small bets into big bets. Therefore we now have 4.5 big bets in the pot and well round it down to 4 to make things simpler.
My opponent now bets again making 5 big bets (the turn card didn't help my flush) so I call. I'm getting 5-1 pot odds which is still worth it to call right because it's greater than the 4-1 chances of hitting my flush correct? But the 4-1 now changes because there is only 1 card left right? There is a total of 6 big bets in the pot now.
4) The river card makes my flush so I raise after he bets and he calls. I win the hand. Considering my odds did i play the hand correctly. The way I see it is that I could do this over and over again and I would win more often than not.
Posted Thu Jul 01, 2004 1:09 pm GMT by Dave B
You have things mess up...lets put real numbers on there:
Preflop action
7 callers of 1 bet (lets assume 3/6 limit) $21 pot- $3 dollars returns $24.
After Flop: 9 outs for the flush, plus another 3 for the Ace (I wouldnt include the 3 for the Ace until after 6 have folded, following your example). Action on you-$27 in the pot, you $3 to call, you have a 36% chance of hitting the flush or roughly 3:1 odds, and 42% chance of a flush or pairing your As, or 3:5 odds. In either case, you call.
After turn: no help to you, still 9 outs for nuts, plus another 3 for a good chance at the pot. $36 in the pot, $6 to call. Now you have a 18% chance of hitting and are getting, so if you think he has an A w/ a good kicker, you are at roughly even money to call. If you believe that your Ace is good if paired, then you should definately call.
River-no brainer, push the pot.
Posted Thu Jul 01, 2004 2:42 pm GMT by darcy tucker
The turn is where I get confused I think. Sorry if this is frustrating explaining this to me Dave but I really appreciate your help.
I realize that on the turn you still have 9 outs to make the flush and you multiply your 9 outs to get roughly 18%. But how do you figure out if it is worth it to call on the turn if you only have 18% chance of hitting the flush? Since you decided the pot was big enough to call on the flop, isn't it going to just as smart and profitable to call on the turn?
Dave how did you figure it was even money to call on the turn?
Posted Thu Jul 01, 2004 3:21 pm GMT by Dave B
$6 bet to call hoping to win a $36 pot. 18% is 5.5 to 1 one. 2 out of 11 times you will make your flush.
So if you play 11 situations and call each, you will commit $66 and win $72.
You also need to consider the implied odds, 3 to the flush, you will almost certainly get a bet out of your opponent w/ a chance to raise, or a call if he checks to you. Unless he was bluffing, then you should have stayed in the hand anyway.
Posted Thu Jul 01, 2004 11:11 pm GMT by darcy tucker
Does anybody else have any imput on this?
Posted Tue Sep 21, 2004 10:56 am GMT by vegasholdem
Ken Warren is one of my favorite authors because i liked the way he explained Pot Odds; and how to keep a running count of it.
The 2 hardest things fer beginners to realize:
1)The Potsize(pot odds) must always be equal or greater than your Draw Odds. If it's 4 to 1 against completing your 4flush draw...the the Potsize(aka,"pot odds") must be greater than 4 bets(the same as saying-4small bets on the Flop; and 4big bets on the Turn).
2)The Potsize - running count of small bets must be cut in 1/2 on the Turn.Ken Warren teaches you how to keep a running count of the Potsize.
Potsize before the Turn = total # of small bets
Potsize after the Turn = total # of big bets.
(note: big bets after the Turn = 1/2 the total # of small bets)
In a nutshell, if the Potsize was 10small bets on the Flop...after the Turncard the Potsize becomes 5 big bets!
Remember>>>all bets you make now belongs to the Potsize...so if there is 3 small bets; you calling would make the Potsize 4 small bets. And if you are raised...the Potsize(pot odds) would now be 6small bets....which is still big enough for you to chase with your 4flush draw! So at this point, 6small bets would make it correct for you to call a raise! Get it?
Another example: if the Potsize is 4 small bets on the flop; it becomes only 2big bets after the Turn. If your on a flush draw; you'll required 2 more limpers(to make it 4big bets) to make the Pot Odss correct for you to chase your 4flush draw to the River!
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Incidently, here's my 1 Card to Come Formula that i use to calculate Draw Odds:
Odds Against = (Decksize - Outs) / outs
...give my formula a try...it really works! The Pot Odds(aka,"potsize") simply must be equal or greater than Your Draw Odds(your odds against)to make chasing worthwhile!
Read this post a few times and i'm sure it'll make sense.... 
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