Posted Wed Aug 20, 2003 3:18 am GMT by Zito
I've been practicing at a new online site and have been seeing some odd things. In four days (maybe 1500 hands), I've seen 6 flops contain 3 equal cards. I am seriously doubting this sites random card generator.
Anyone know the odds of the flop containing 3 equal cards?
And if you have no life... the odds of it happening 6 times in 1500 games?
To add to the weirdness, I had the quad 2 of 6 times!
/b
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Posted Thu Aug 21, 2003 7:08 am GMT by kluCAR
I am not sure abou this but this is what I calculated.
The odds of the flop cointaning 3 equal cards is about 2%. So, in 1500 hands you would expect 30 hands like that. In your case this happened in ONLY 6 times so it is strange in different way. I think you overreacted when you said you played 1500 hand in four days.
The odd of that hapening more than 6 times is 1. So it happens almost everytime.
Posted Thu Aug 21, 2003 7:43 am GMT by mrfloppy
Sorry to say, but 2% is way off...your odds of drawing 3 of a kind on a flop are figured like this if I recall my trigonometry. I'll assume we're assuming 50 unknowns and 4 same valued cards in the deck. You take the number of valued card remaing after each card..so there are 4 A's let's say to start...if the 1st card over is an ace there's 3 left...if the 2nd is an ace there's 2 left. 4+3+2=9. You then take your number of unknowns 50x49x48=117600(which I also believe to be your number of possible flop combinations if I recall) you divide 9/117600=.00007% chance of trips on the flop.
Posted Thu Aug 21, 2003 12:14 pm GMT by Zito
Sorry KLU, but your math is hilarios (2%). I hope to play real money with you. I didn't "overreact" by stating 1500 hands. In 4 days, I played about 30 hours on 1-2 tables at a time (about 30 hands/hour/table).
MrFloppy seems to have good numbers. I'm not sure, because I had to beg to get a D- in my college calc class. Maybe drugs are bad?
Poker-math+drugs=(-)income
Posted Thu Aug 21, 2003 12:36 pm GMT by kluCAR
You both dont know anything about math and so deosnt lots of pepole so I dont blame you for that. I study physics anf math and I am pretty sure about my result.
The problem in your calculation is that you just calculated one way of trips on the floop. But there are 10 ways how you can put trips on the floop. Let see them:
AAAxx
AAxAx
AAxxA
AxAAx
AxAxA
AxxAA
xAAAx
xAAxA
xAxAA
xxAAA
if A is our card (tripled )and x is undifined card.
The posibility for the first flop above is
1 * 3/51 * 2/50 * 1 * 1 = 0.00235
for the second
1 * 3/51 * 1 * 2/49 * 1 = 0.00240
and so on...
If you sum all of them you get
0.02476 and that is a CORRECT outcome.
I even porgramed a random simulator of a flop where I picked 5 cards from the deck randomly (as flop is dealt). I made 10 000 games and gues what. In 2237 time the flop contained trips so that prooves my calculation.
So dont be to damn smart about it if yo dont have a clue about math. And one more thing mrfloppy. Trigonometry has nothing to do with odss.
Posted Thu Aug 21, 2003 12:38 pm GMT by kluCAR
on more thing. I forgot another zero in number 10 000 where I talked about how many games I simulated. I simuleted 100 000 games for real.
take care
Posted Thu Aug 21, 2003 12:58 pm GMT by Zito
LOL
You are very funny. I enjoy your math humor.
If you think your serious, then I would consider changing your major.
Further, a "flop" is not 5 cards. It is the 1st 3 community cards.
123= flop
4=turn
5=RIVER "damn the river!"
I suggest you stick to PolishPoker (IndianPoker to some).
Posted Thu Aug 21, 2003 1:26 pm GMT by kluCAR
I understand. In that case the odds are
1 * 3/51 * 2/50 = 0.00235.
You yould expect 3.5 hands like that in 1500 hands. Your 6 seems a bit high but lets calculate odds. The posibility of more than 6 flops (with trips)beeing delt out of 1500 is (more complicated math) is 0.14. That is rather samll but is definitly possbile. Sroy for misunderstanding.
Posted Thu Aug 21, 2003 3:58 pm GMT by mrfloppy
Odds has plenty to do with trigonometry if you spent a month studying odds and probability in trig class. You are right though, partially. Whenever calculating poker odds you presume 50 cards left for the flop, b/c you know the 2 you are holding. To be even more complicated, your odds of flopping trips depend on some other factors, such as flopping a card you're already holding. So let's assume it this way. You're holding 2 cards, unpaired. Big Slick for kicks. That leaves 3 kings and 3 aces in the deck. So there are 50 remaining cards minus the 6 that match your cards that leaves you 44 out of 50 possible cards to remain to flop trips. So you odds are then 44x3x2=264/117600(50x49x48)=.00224
For kicks if we want to calculate your odds of flopping trips, which would actually be a 4 of a kind on 1 of those cards you are holding...3 aces and 3 kings left give you 6 possibilities to start trips on the flop...6x2(the number of remaining kings or aces depending on which card opens the flop)x1=12/117600=.0001
Now coming from someone who doesn't do math every day, I still -might- have something messed up. I think I've got it down this time though. 2%...1 out of 50 hands...from a person studying physics and math...must not know his poker well. Take it easy klu...we're all here to help each other out.
Posted Thu Aug 21, 2003 4:33 pm GMT by kluCAR
The first odd I calculated (2%) I thought that you want 3 equals on the TABLE (3 out of 5). And it is correct. But if you want 3 equal cards on the FLOP the posibility goes down to 0.2%. That is also correct and alos feels right. It was misundesrtanding from my side so I corrected myself. But I still stand behind my calcualting.
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