I am sending an SOS to the world |
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Posted Fri Jul 16, 2004 10:13 am GMT by hebrigger
I have an odds question. In Doyle’s book he explains that the probability of another player having a pocket A, in a 9 men game, when an A flops is 80%. How does he figure that out? Also, is there a comprehensive chart that any of you can refer me that presents the odds of another player having certain cards on the flop? Maybe even a chart that includes odds to when you are in smaller games? I looked around the forum but wasn’t able to find an answer. Of course there is the possibility that I missed what I am looking for once more. Thank you all in advance for trying to help. I am going to play in my biggest game yet this weekend; it is a $1000 buy-in ring game, and I am trying to get ready for it. I am psyched…
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Posted Sat Jul 17, 2004 5:06 pm GMT by Adam Marshall
Not sure exactly how Doyle (or more likely, Mike Caro) got that figure, but I guess you could say IF you don't have an ace AND the other players are dealt 18 random cards AND one ace and two other cards come on the flop AND assumed that anyone dealt an ace stayed for the flop, what are the chances that anyone else has an ace or aces? You could come up with some dubious math like...
1 - (45/48 )(44/47)(43/46)(42/45)...(29/32)(28/31)
1 - (45*44*43*42....*28 ) / (48*47*46*45...*31)
1 - (30*29*28 )/(48*47*46)
1 - (24360/103776)
0.765 or 76.5%
I personally hate questions like those though. You are assuming that you don't have an ace? If you don't have an ace, the chances of someone having one will go up. THEN you assume the flop will be ace, x, x? I don't like it. It screws things up when you make assumptions after the random event.
In fact, screw the flop. New question. If you don't have an ace in a 9 handed-game, the chance of any of the aces or multiple aces getting dealt to other players is...
1- (46/50)(45/49)(44/48 )....(29/33)
1- (29*30*31*32)(50*49*48*47)
1- 863040/5527200
0.844 or 84.4%
So if you didn't get dealt an ace, someone else did 84.4% of the time. That's doable math that doesn't assume any craziness in the future on the flop.
So as far as a chart that has the odds of a player holding certain cards, it's not practical. When the flop is something like AAx and you consult the chart and it says that the chance of them having an ace is 3%, you sure as hell better not try to factor that into you pot odds or you'll get slammed around the entire game.
Good luck with that high limit game though! Try to stick to practical odds like outs, pot odds, implied, etc they are much more reliable and practical. 
Posted Sat Jul 17, 2004 6:17 pm GMT by Geno
I take my hat off to you Adam, you can calculate odds better than any1 I know! I bet u did some Probability modules in college!
Posted Sun Jul 18, 2004 6:37 pm GMT by wEbMaStEr
I take my hat off too ......
but only so the odds/equations can fly right over my head unhindered.
Posted Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:24 am GMT by vegasholdem
when i am dealt an Ace preflop:
heads up it's about 7.7 to 1 against the other guy having an Ace as well.
against 9 other players: 7.7/9=.86; so it's .86 to 1 against someone else besides my being dealt an Ace preflop.
So in a full ring game; it's safe to assume that someone else is holding an Ace while you do....that's why it's not good to hold an ace with such a weak kicker. Can you say, "trap hand"?
Personally, i only hold A4offsuits in late position with at least 6 or more callers. I hope to flop either a 4straight draw or 2 pair...having top pair with a weak kicker is a trap hand... 
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