When do I play pocket, suited cards? |
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Posted Wed Aug 27, 2003 12:55 pm GMT by GuidoPanzini
I play low limit Hold'Um online, with 4 to 6 players at the table (where possible).
I'm a beginner, but a flush is most often a winning hand, and I seldom see two flushes in the same hand.
It seems to me that if I can see the flop cheaply, I should play ALL suited cards.
I calculated that I'll get a flush, in 7 cards, about 1 in 13 times from two suited cards (right?).
So, when I win with the flush, I need to collect 13 times what I had to invest when I don't hit the flush.
My (very limited) experience says that I can often get these odds at the games I play in.
So....I should play ALL suited cards....(if I don't have to call any raises, etc.)
What I read says this is WRONG!!
What am I missing??
Thanks for any help....
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Posted Wed Aug 27, 2003 2:17 pm GMT by Poker_Vendetta
I can't give you a really great reason of why NOT to...but most of the time you shouldn't play really low suited cards. Take 72h for example, there IS a chance someone has a higher combination of hearts and obviously if you don't make the flush you are dead. Even if you get 2 hearts on the flop and think your opponent may have top pair great kicker...Your semibluffs may suck your chips right out of your hands even though a flush draw is usually a good thing. I'd say never call a raise with low suited cards...I don't know, maybe call if you are on the button? Anyway, suited cards, OVERALL are not that great to play. Flushes are not as often as you would make it seem.
Posted Mon Sep 08, 2003 2:42 pm GMT by Adam Marshall
If you have two suited cards, you're not going to stay in if you have just a three-flush, so I'd change your 1 in 13 figure a little bit. If you have two suited, your going to get a four flush about 10.9% of the time.
Let's say you play suited cards where the higher pocket card is a ten. Chances of someone having higher suited pocket cards is 3.1% for every opponent. So if you're playing against 4 other players, the chance of you hitting your flush is about the same as someone else having a higher flush. Plus, that doesn't even take into account what happens if a four-flush appears on the board, in which case you're probably doomed.
So, we assume that 8 in 9 (opposite of 10.9%) of the time you're going to just completely miss (that accounts for your .84% chance of flopping a flush outright). Then, if you hit your four-flush you're goinna miss it 65% of the time (Flush is losing so far 96% of the time). Then, 3.1% X # of players is the probablity that you're still screwed (Actually it's not truly just simple multiplication, but you get the point).
That 3.1% that represents the fear of a higher flush gets significantly higher if you play lower suited cards...
If your higher suited pocket card is a 9 it becomes 3.8%
8 5 of hearts in the pocket? The fear increases to 4.6%
7 3 suited? It's up to 5.3%
Powerful 6 2 of clubs!? Try a 5.9% chance for each player that they hold a "higher two-flush" in the pocket.
Stop playing low suited cards!
Posted Mon Jan 12, 2004 9:42 pm GMT by Peerless
I never did the math myself but Skalansky said that with suited cards you have 6% chance of catching a flush if stay all the way to the river. So I only stay if I've got high cards or a straight draw too.
Posted Tue Jan 13, 2004 12:21 pm GMT by Sente
According to Mike Caro's site, if you begin suited and stay through seven cards, three more (But not four or five more!) of your suit will turn up 5.77% of the time (or 16.3 to 1).
That number is in line with the 6% quoted from Skalansky in the last post.
The "but no four of five more" needs to be considered in this equation. Your low flush will lose if a fourth of your suit lands and your opponents are playing high unsuited cards, and one of their high cards matches suit. And in the very rare case of five of a suit on the board, you hand is useless (merely a push) if all five are higher than what is in your hand.
Now consider Adam's point that there may be higher suited cards out there against you. Your 16.3 to 1 against now effectively becomes 17 or 18 to 1 against in a mult-way pots.
Now it is possible to win in other ways, such as getting a straight or pairing up your cards. You effective odds improve somewhat from 18 to 1 against, don't expect it to improve to better than 15 to 1 against with multi-way action with small cards. That's also why higher suited cards are better, connected suited are better, and preferably even both. More possible ways to win is better odds and a better play.
So if you chase any two suited cards, are you getting enough money from the pot when you do win to offset the money you lose by chasing all the other times that you lose?
The answer is almost certainly no.
Posted Tue Jan 13, 2004 7:39 pm GMT by mindgame
Very astute answers. Clearly reasoned; well explained.
But will he listen?
I bet not.
Posted Thu Apr 15, 2004 11:31 am GMT by Matt T
I will play low suited connectors (sometimes with a gap) only if there are a bunch of people already in. The "problem" I run into when I do this is that often the pots ends up so big that it's hard to get away from the draw. I had been playing very tight last night and wasn't getting anything and out of frustration (maybe boredom) played a 3s-5s on the button (4/8 Hold Em) after all but 1 player limped in. But then the BB raised and everybody called, so I did too. Two spades flop with a high-ish straight draw, BB bets and lots of calls. Red rag on Turn, BB bets and only about half drop. The pot is huge now. Ace spades on river, BB bets and two other callers so I just call. BB flips a broadway, two mucks and I'm almost embarrassed to turn over my winner. The loser was kinda pissed but the dealer agreed that the size of the pot justified the play. What do you guys think? I usually wouldn't even give that hand a second look except when on the button and LOTS of limpers.
Posted Fri Apr 16, 2004 1:27 pm GMT by nicthestick
my question for you is..... WHY no reraise? By the description of the hand, and the betting, it sounds like the BB has Overcards... he raised preflop right? the guys in the middle are probably on 1 or 2 pair and hoping that they are good. I know that your flush is REALLY little, but I think that a raise would have netted you another 24 smacks.
Posted Sat Apr 17, 2004 10:24 pm GMT by Absolution
Hmm this gives me insight into why people are always calling my raises with 48s or K2s and such. haha.
Suited connectors or Axs aren't bad in multiway pots for reasons already noted, but any two suited cards? I think not. As with any form of gambling though, the one time someone chases that 27s to the river and makes it is enough justification (the high of winning) to play it every time.
Posted Sun Apr 18, 2004 2:17 pm GMT by Fat Tony
here's another thing when playing low or even medium suited cards. if a fourth card of your suit hits the board (long odds, but it happens) you might as well fold it if anyone bets. especially if it's a multi-way pot. but it's better not to even bother with low suited unless you're in the BB and noone raises.
Posted Mon Apr 19, 2004 8:58 am GMT by Matt T
Nicthestick, you're probably right. I don't think it would have gotten 3 callers though, probably just the BB. I guess the reason I didn't raise was because I wasn't sure enough that that one of the other two wasn't also on a small flush draw (the straight seemed pretty obvious, why were they calling it on the river?).
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