Posted Wed Jul 21, 2004 1:17 pm GMT by Ben4040
I have a quick question about pot odds. Do pot odds include your opponents bet to you as well or does it just include the money that is already in the pot?
For example, the flop gives you four to the flush. Your chance of getting the fifth card for the flush is roughly 33% (if I have any of this wrong please let me know). There are 50 chips in the pot and your opponent bets 50 to you. Do you call the 50 because you will be getting 2 to 1 pot odds or do you not count your opponents bet and only the money in the pot, in which case it would be 1 to 1 pot odds? I'm a bit uncertain maybe someone can help me out. I have always been including my opponents bet as part of the pot when considering pot odds. I just wanted to be sure I was correct.
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Posted Wed Jul 21, 2004 1:26 pm GMT by Replic
The opponents bet is included, as you are betting to win that as well. So if you have to call a 10 dollar bet from your opponent and the pot was 5 dollars before, its actually 10 dollars to a 15 dollar pot.
Posted Wed Jul 21, 2004 1:47 pm GMT by Ben4040
That's what I thought. Just checking. Thanks for your help.
Posted Mon Aug 02, 2004 4:41 am GMT by krakajak
It's more complicated than that. You have a (roughly) one in three chance of hitting your flush on one of the next 2 cards, but in the situation you just described, you're not paying $50 to see the next 2 cards, you're only paying to see the next one, and your chances of hitting your flush on the next card are less than one in five. So, if there is $100 in the pot (the $50 pre flop, and your opponent's $50 bet), and you have to pay $50 to see the next card, you are not getting good odds to call.
If you miss your flush on the turn, you're going to have to pay even more money to see the river, and again, the odds of hitting your flush will be less than one in five.
Posted Mon Aug 02, 2004 7:36 am GMT by Nut Flush
I'm with Krakajak on this one. Your pot odds are 2:1 but you are a 5:1 dog to hit your flush on the next card. When using pot odss, if the pot odds are greater than your odds of making a hand, then call. If they are not, then fold. So in this situation, you would need at least $250 in the pot to make that call. Flush draws should be played with alot of people in the pot in order to get the correct pot odds.
Posted Mon Aug 02, 2004 8:01 am GMT by Ben4040
Thanks for the correction. So when taking into consideration pot odds you should account for any bet that your opponent might make on the turn in addition to the bet he is making on the flop in order to justify trying to chase to improve your hand? So if I had four to the flush on the flop with 150 chips in the pot and my opponent was betting 50 to me and I was pretty sure he might bet up to but not exceeding 100 on the turn, I would be correct in calling to chase the flush? Am I right?
Posted Mon Aug 02, 2004 8:05 am GMT by Nut Flush
Now you're talking about "implied odds". But yes, you can do that. Let's say there was $200 in the pot and you call "assuming" your opponent will bet on the river therefore adding another $50 to the pot. That would give you your odds, but if your opponent just checks then you lost money. And this is all "assuming" that you hit the flush draw. At leat I think thats how it works :D
Posted Mon Aug 02, 2004 8:33 am GMT by jwrussell
Seems to me, even if you WERE paying the $50 for both cards that you would still not be getting the price you need to call. You have 3-1 to hit your flush by the river, but only 2-1 on the pot to call. You need to be getting at least 3-1 on the pot to consider calling and even then, as Kraka pointed out, you are not really at 3-1, you are more like 5-1. So, to call the turn you need to be betting better than 5-1 on your money.
Now, that being said, you can always take into consideration implied odds. Are you playing NL? If so, if you call and hit the flush can you take your opponents entire stack? Also, you have to take into consideration your opponents style of play. If you call and don't hit, is your opponent going to put you on the flush draw and make it very expensive for you to draw for the river card? All the more reason to only consider the next card in the odds. 5-1.
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