What was that estamation odds thing in your head |
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Posted Sat Jul 31, 2004 10:03 pm GMT by djbaseball24
I forgot but someone posted and good estamtion thing to do in your head like multiply by 3 or something like that, does anyone remember what the real formation was?
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Posted Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:42 am GMT by ORGrinder
post flop = number of outs x 4
post turn = number of outs x 2 - 1
Posted Mon Aug 02, 2004 11:01 am GMT by djbaseball24
This gives me a percent right?
So i have 84 suited(spades) vs pocket Kings
and the flop is 4c 5h 2c
Right now I would do 5 X 4=20% of getting this card on turn, river right?
if they next card is Js then I do 5 x 2=10-1=9 percent chance of getting a 4 or 8 right?
Posted Mon Aug 02, 2004 11:39 am GMT by ORGrinder
your number of outs will vary depending on what hand you're calculating to... but yes... you've got it right... it's a percentage calculation of hitting the card(s) you're looking to get by the river.
Posted Tue Aug 10, 2004 11:24 am GMT by Johnny T
Thats a good system... the only flaw would be, how d'ya know your opponent has pocket Kings... he could have 8 4 the same as you? Or even worse, Pocket J's..
Still, very handy for working out whether to take the plunge or not..
Posted Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:20 pm GMT by ORGrinder
true... but when calculating odds you don't bother taking other's ppls cards into account since you have no way of knowing for certain what they are... unless they happen to pull a no-no and show their muck while other ppl are still in the hand. in which case you could adjust your odds accordingly.
Posted Tue Aug 24, 2004 7:25 pm GMT by joerobinson04
Sorry Im a newb on the terminology, what is an out?
Posted Wed Aug 25, 2004 8:10 am GMT by Dave B
check the glossary on the right for terms.
Quickly, an out is a card that will improve your hands (enough to give you hand hand).
AK, flop 3 6 J, you have 6 outs, 3 As 3 Ks
78, flop 2 9 10, you have 8 outs 4 6s 4 Js.
Jh10h, flop Ah Kh 2d, you have 12 outs, 9 hearts, 3 Qs (one is a heart-dont double count)
Posted Wed Aug 25, 2004 8:54 am GMT by ORGrinder
i just realized i made a error...
post turn should be # of outs x 2 + 1, not -1. my bad.
Posted Wed Aug 25, 2004 11:02 pm GMT by joerobinson04
I would only use this if it was down to 3 or less players. With 9 players in those odds would make no sence.
Posted Thu Aug 26, 2004 9:07 am GMT by ORGrinder
unless you're some sort of idiot savant or something... in every book i've read you calc you odds based on number of outs period. number of players makes no difference since you simply have no way to know what they have.
that said... the figures work no matter how many players are in the hand.
Posted Thu Aug 26, 2004 9:21 am GMT by Dave B
Those odds make no sence (sp!).....care to play? I have a seat ready for you.
Posted Thu Aug 26, 2004 11:21 am GMT by ORGrinder
Sure dave... i'll play with ya... cuz if you're odds are different... i'm a shoe in to make an eazy buck.
here are some examples for ya
| Quote: |
odds with 2 cards to come
1 out = 4.3% OR 4x1 = 4%
2 outs = 8.4% OR 4x2 = 8%
3 outs = 12.5% OR 4x3 = 12%
4 outs = 16.5% OR 4x4 = 16%
5 outs = 20.4% OR 4x5 = 20%
6 outs = 24.1% OR 4x6 = 24%
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where shal we play dave?
 8)
Posted Thu Aug 26, 2004 11:23 am GMT by ORGrinder
i will conceed though that although the pre-turn calculation is darn close to actual odds... the pre-river calculation fluctuates between just x2 and x2+1 depending on the number of outs... so it's NOT as accurate of a calculation.
Posted Thu Aug 26, 2004 1:19 pm GMT by joerobinson04
But if there were 16 more cards that the players were holdling, why wouldn't that change anything. Im saying these calculations should work better with less players.
Posted Thu Aug 26, 2004 1:45 pm GMT by ORGrinder
sure... you're odds of catching the cards you need are better when there's fewer players in the hand... however, when calculating your number of outs, you don't take into consideration how many players are in the hand. you can't. it's not possible unless you know what they're holding, so you simply don't consider that. you're basing your outs on unseen cards basically. since you haven't seen your opponents cards, you outs are the same as if all their cards were still in the deck.
it's just the way you calculate outs.
Posted Thu Aug 26, 2004 1:57 pm GMT by Dave B
You dont know what those other cards are, you can only calculate the odds of the cards you need from the total amount of unknown cards.
I think your point of confusion might be this, if there are more players in a hand, an out might not be and out. For example, if you have AK and the flop is 10, 9 6, someone might already have 2 pair, so you could be looking at zero outs. Or if there are 2 suited hearts on the flop and you have J 10 hearts, your J high str8 might not be good w/ 8 callers.
So what determines how many outs you have, you need to consider what it will take to win the hand. But if you are drawing the nut flush and there is no pair (or str8 flush) on the board, you have at least 9 outs(maybe more if your A is good). It makes ZERO difference if you are heads up or 9 have seen the flop.
Posted Fri Aug 27, 2004 1:36 pm GMT by joerobinson04
I get it now. Thanks to both of you for the explanation. Because no matter how many people are in it's still out of 52 cards.
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