Posted Sun Aug 15, 2004 3:13 am GMT by StarlightCoast
Could someone tell me the precentage and odds of hitting a runner runner suit to fill a backdoor flush. Thanks.
And no lectures about not chasing backdoor flushes LOL
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Posted Sun Sep 05, 2004 8:32 am GMT by freni126
there is (hopefully) 13-3=10 outs for your flush left....
chance of hitting the turn in 10/47... and to hit the river is 9/46..
so you have a 10/47*9/46=0.041 = 4%
seems abit low I guess.. maybe Im wrong but that's how I would calculate it...
Posted Sun Sep 05, 2004 8:54 am GMT by Geno
| freni126 wrote: | there is (hopefully) 13-3=10 outs for your flush left....
chance of hitting the turn in 10/47... and to hit the river is 9/46..
so you have a 10/47*9/46=0.041 = 4%
seems abit low I guess.. maybe Im wrong but that's how I would calculate it... |
Looks good to me at a 25 to 1 shot. Further proof that it's never worth trying it.
Posted Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:58 pm GMT by DocHolliday
Granted, most of the time, it is not worth trying it. But never say never in poker. There are certain times when you should at least see the turn card. Some of these instances may be when you have two over cards and the board isn't very scary (leaning towards a straight), when you also have some kind of a straight draw, pocket aces when 2 of the suit flops. If there are lots of callers and no raises on the flop and you are in late position, it's cheap to see the 4th card and the pot odds might deem that it's necessary to call. If you do happen to catch the turn card, then you pretty much need to see the river as well, as you're now a 5 to 1 and the pot is probably worth it by this point. But, if you do try it, make sure it's either the nut flush you're drawing to, or at least be assured that it would hold up if it hits - otherwise, your odds drop dramatically if you're holding something like 78s as opposed to Axs.
As an interesting side note, catching your gutshot straight on the turn or river is about a 6 to 1 shot, which is a far better investment than the backdoor flush, if you had to choose between the two.
Posted Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:07 pm GMT by Geno
| DocHolliday wrote: | | Granted, most of the time, it is not worth trying it. But never say never in poker. There are certain times when you should at least see the turn card. |
I disagree, if the turn is the suit u want, ur odds are still long but u will often want to see the river so u may be tempted to call a bet u otherwise would not. Just my opinion mind.
| DocHolliday wrote: | | As an interesting side note, catching your gutshot straight on the turn or river is about a 6 to 1 shot, which is a far better investment than the backdoor flush, if you had to choose between the two. |
I always worked on the odds that a gutshot is a 13 to 1 shot after the flop and an up and down straight draw is 5 to 1. I could well be wrong tho.........
Posted Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:15 pm GMT by Geno
I just found this old thread that I asked about straight drawing odds on and it says a gutshot is 11 to 1 and an up and down is 5 to 1. Hmm.
http://www.texasholdem-poker.com/forum/t32/a-question-about-straight-odds
Posted Thu Sep 16, 2004 6:57 pm GMT by DocHolliday
Of course, Geno, you are correct .... I might have been thinking of something else at the time...Either that, or I've been playing wrong odds all this time! Let's hope the latter isn;t true, for argument's sake....
Posted Thu Sep 16, 2004 7:06 pm GMT by DocHolliday
Geno, I thought about the odds a little more after my last post, and realized that my odds were indeed correct. I read the post that you point to, and I think the misunderstanding comes in where I say the odds to hit are either on the turn or the river. The odds you mention only show the odds of hitting on the turn only. Therefore, as of the flop, your odds are 6 to 1 for that gutshot (4 outs x 2 cards to come x 2% ~ 15%). Granted, if you don't hit on the turn, you probably don't want to stay for the river for the big bet - just hope it's checked all the way and you can see it free.
Maybe that clarifies things.
Posted Fri Sep 17, 2004 7:23 am GMT by Dave B
If I have 2 overcards (AK suited) and one suited hit on the flop, I feel OK seeing the turn and then river if the 4th suited card hits.
Posted Wed Sep 22, 2004 1:12 pm GMT by vegasholdem
runner runner flush from flop to the finish(river):
You have only a mere 4.2% chance!!!
That's 22.8 to 1 against!!! 
Posted Wed Oct 06, 2004 8:47 pm GMT by Jauron
Most hands (or should I say the smart ones) that back door the flush are either on a made hand, or another draw with the combined strength of a made hand, or the additional outs of another draw you could be looking at 2* (9+6 ) or 30% to hit one of your draws. Depending on the strength of both draws you can decide to continue now that you have fresh outs.
I've started on straight draws, then back doored a flush draw when the turn missed me, those are very hard to throw away if the money isn't crazy. Plus if the guy has a lot of chips, you're probably right to continue your draw, knowing if you hit the back door flush, you'd probably break him. (Implied odds)
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