I challenge someone to figure this out |
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Posted Mon Sep 22, 2003 12:24 pm GMT by JimN
Here's my challenge:
If you are dealt pocket KKs, in late position, and there is no raise to you and there have been a couple of callers, consider what happens if you raise in a limit game of 1/2.
If your raise does not succeed in thinning the field at all (or maybe eliminates just 1-2, leaving around 6 opponents), what is the likelihood that your raise will benefit you. IN other words, if this scenario is played out a million times, will the increase in the pot size offset the fact that you are not going to win as many pots due to the number of people who are calling?
I'm trying to figure out (mathematically) if it is wise (purely on a percentage basis) to raise with pocket KKs, when you are pretty sure that most people will remain in the hand and not respect the raise.
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Posted Mon Sep 22, 2003 1:00 pm GMT by Dave B
A preflop raise may not get them to fold immediately, but if the flop comes Q 8 6 or the like and someone bets in front of you, then a raise to 2 bets after the flop will certainly get their attention. One thing though, be careful playing too strong w/ a top pair in low stakes limit holdem, many players will at least wait to see the turn(when the min bet doubles) and are likely to catch a staight, flush, or 2 pairs.
Posted Mon Sep 22, 2003 1:07 pm GMT by JimN
Thanks Dave, but I'm really looking for some kind of mathematical calculation, rather than an analysis about what actually occurs.
If I know that raising with KKs will in the long run be more profitable than just smooth calling, REGARDLESS of how many people subsequently call the raise, then that will make it even easier for me to justify the raise in the first place. But without this kind of proof, I invariably find myself wondering if I am better off just calling, when I believe that the raise will scare hardly anyone away..
So again, I want to know whether the increase in the pot size outweighs the fact that I will win fewer pots by virtue of all the people who will call.
Posted Mon Sep 22, 2003 2:52 pm GMT by StanSmith
| Quote: | | If your raise does not succeed in thinning the field at all (or maybe eliminates just 1-2, leaving around 6 opponents), what is the likelihood that your raise will benefit you |
I'm not sure this can be answered as succinctly as you'd like. While you can run a simulation of a million hands and get a win rate for KK in late position, there are enough decisions to be made after the flop, on the turn, etc, that your number won't be useful.
If your simulation software was written by someone who knows how to bet when holding KK late and the flop comes out Q 7 4 suited but you don't, your win rate will never be what the simulation lead you to believe.
Martin
Posted Mon Sep 22, 2003 3:31 pm GMT by Geno
I'm with Martin here JimN....
Mathematics is good all the time there are variables based on static factors such as number of unseen cards, number of cards which would result in a winning hand etc but no good where subjective variables arise such as "How will Player X react to a Q,7,6" flop.
It IS possible to build a model which incorporates uncertainty factors such as confidence intervals and risk factors but tbh, that's total overkill and I'm certainly not prepared to do it I'm afraid as it would take too long and the results would not be 'useful' as such.
Your best bet as always is to know the pre-flop odds of a win playing ur pocket hand vs every1 else's pocket hand and then bet to reduce the pot odds as community cards are turned.
KK in the hole late is a raisable hand almost every time I would say bcos if u don't and u win a cheap pot u kick urself and if u do and u lose to a bad beat u haven't done anything wrong. The only time u can be angry is when ur bad betting regime with KK vs a certain flop leads to ur opponent catching something late that u could have prevented. Other than that, don't dwell overly on odds and just go with ur knowledge and ur gut. Sometimes they far outweigh practical mathematical knowledge 
Posted Sat Sep 27, 2003 4:19 pm GMT by cmerc
Jim,
Hi, I'm new here and was reading your post today. I hope what I'm about to share with you can help. First of all, Like Adam, I believe you must raise pre flop, and if you know your opponents, and feel the information you have observed through the game thus far warrants a reraise, do so.
Now for some numbers:
* Holding a wired pair you will flop a set nearly 12% of the time (any set). * Holding hole card kings no overcards will flop nearly 66% of the time, and the probability of seeing a good flop w/ kings is roughly 77% of the time.
*In a ten handed Texas holdem game, hole card kings ends up the best hand after the river about 26% of the time.
Hope this in some way helps.
Good Luck,
Chuck
If you are dealt pocket KKs, in late position, and there is no raise to you and there have been a couple of callers, consider what happens if you raise in a limit game of 1/2.
If your raise does not succeed in thinning the field at all (or maybe eliminates just 1-2, leaving around 6 opponents), what is the likelihood that your raise will benefit you. IN other words, if this scenario is played out a million times, will the increase in the pot size offset the fact that you are not going to win as many pots due to the number of people who are calling?
I'm trying to figure out (mathematically) if it is wise (purely on a percentage basis) to raise with pocket KKs, when you are pretty sure that most people will remain in the hand and not respect the raise.
Posted Mon Nov 10, 2003 1:26 pm GMT by cue_ball2163
pocket kings is obviously a very strong hand, and with only a few people in the hand, you are already a favorite to take down the pot...Get as much money in the pot as possible, to play the percentages and win as much as possible.
Posted Sat Feb 14, 2004 4:46 pm GMT by dirty_c
| cmerc wrote: | Jim,
* Holding a wired pair you will flop a set nearly 12% of the time (any set).
* Holding hole card kings no overcards will flop nearly 66% of the time, and the probability of seeing a good flop w/ kings is roughly 77% of the time.
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I'm not sure I understand your second example. Are you saying that as long as one has pocket kings (or any pocket face cards for that matter) that there is a 66% chance that there will NOT be a single face card on the flop (j,q,k or a). If this is the case, where do you get the figure that 77% of the time pocket kings will give you a good flop?
I'm not doubting you, I just have no idea how it works and how you got your numbers. Could you show the calculations please?
Posted Sat Feb 14, 2004 6:02 pm GMT by Sh1rp
Think of it this way. With 10 players, if you raise, putting your $2 more in the pot, that will make the pot $20 richer. I think this risk is worth it for pocket kings. And if you DO run into trouble after the flop, it was only $2 you invested. If you DON'T run into trouble after the flop, it was only $2 you invested to make that pot humongous. I think it's a good strategy either way.
Posted Sat Feb 14, 2004 6:53 pm GMT by highscty
Not raising with pocket kings is a crime in limit hold'em. Heres my mathematical equation: Not raising with kings = crime.
Posted Sun Feb 15, 2004 2:20 am GMT by nicthestick
not raising with kings = crime = stupididty 
Posted Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:41 pm GMT by DomTrix
The maths is actually fairly simple I believe.
If there is no one with AA, your hand is the favourite heads up against every caller. So the odds will ALWAYS be worth any raise.
Right?
Posted Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:57 pm GMT by mindgame
Doing all the math for a question this complicated is something only a stats freak would undertake.
And, as has been stated above, attempting to define the problem introduces considerations that complicate the situation further, since you'd want to know a half-dozen what-if scenarios based on the type of flop you got.
You are making this too complicated. You have a pair of kings. There is only one possible better hand...it is fundemental that you should raise, re-raise, re-re-raise, whatever...UNLESS you are SURE that someone has a pair of Aces. In the long run...and winning poker is a long-run proposition...you will win more than you will lose. Period.
Now if you really want to know all the various likelihoods, go out and buy Turbo Texas Hold'em and set the problem up. Run 50,000 hands under each one of all the various table situations (weak/ tight; passive aggressive...etc) and get your answers. You will have more info than you will ever need...and it will all boil down to telling you that you MUST bet a good hand.
You want mathematical certainty. In poker there is but probablility and the certainty that it is infallibly correct for the BIG PICTURE. And that's why KK loses when we'd least like it to.
Posted Mon Mar 15, 2004 2:25 pm GMT by thepheonix
Okay... here is somewhat of an answer:
In a table of 10 people (and no one folds), KK wins 27% of the time. So.... just by approximation, 6-7 people would be about 35% of the time. It is good to raise because increasing the pot is what you want. If you win 35% of the time and your payout is 6 to 1 then your odds are great. If an ace hit and someone bets, fold. No big deal, cut your losses and maximize your gains. Always raise with KK at a 10 person table unless trying to slow play which isn't the best idea with 9 opponents who could be limping.
Posted Thu Apr 22, 2004 12:37 pm GMT by Woods
To me, the only answer to justify playing any cards is IT DEPENDS. It all depends on the situation and how you feel about the cards you hold in your hand.
Cowboys is an excellent hand; I would put in a large raise, hoping that I was called and no aces fell on the flop. One ace on the flop is all you need to make that the worst hand at the table.
To answer the question, it depends. I recall one hand that I won with 2-7 offsuit; it was good enough to win./b /i
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