Posted Wed Sep 24, 2003 8:20 am GMT by JimN
2 scenarios about the river have been confusing me recently.
(1) I have reasonably led the betting because I had very promising draws, thereby leaving only one opponent, in later position than me. But in the end, I've drawn nothing. Without knowing anything about my opponent -- other than that he has been calling all the way -- should I bet again as a bluff, or call. Assume that I am playing a limit, ring game.
(2) If I am heads up at the river, is there any rule of thumb about calling a bet, based upon how many bets have already been placed into the pot in prior rounds? In other words, when is it worth calling a bet (in limit ring games) even if I have a decent suspicion that I'm beat at this point?
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Posted Wed Sep 24, 2003 9:06 am GMT by Dave B
Tough call. For me, it depends on the size of the pot and what the cards are on the table. If I have AK or AQ or the like, and all low cards are on the table, I would likely follow through w/ betting aggressively. If I am reraised at the river, dump. If higher cards are on the table and I dont have the top pair or the 2nd pair w/ a great kicker, I would cut my losses and check the bet. The odds are, I am beat.
Also-a lot depends on who the heads up opponent is. Some guys never fold, others will fold weak hands if you are showing strength.
One more factor, is there a straight or flush draw that someone is trying to hit? If are heads up w/ a straight of flush draw that doesnt come out, there is a better chance that a bet w/ get a fold.
Posted Wed Sep 24, 2003 1:38 pm GMT by StanSmith
| Quote: | | If I am heads up at the river, is there any rule of thumb about calling a bet, based upon how many bets have already been placed into the pot in prior rounds? In other words, when is it worth calling a bet (in limit ring games) even if I have a decent suspicion that I'm beat at this point? |
Yes, the rule of thumb is called 'pot odds'. Represent your decent suspicion as a ratio, and compare that ratio to the ratio of your call to the size of the pot.
Martin
Posted Wed Sep 24, 2003 7:44 pm GMT by mindgame
Okay, this is not an advanced theory discussion environment. So take it right out of Phil Helmuth's advice for beginners. Don't ever throw a hand away on the river unless you are absolutely sure you are beat. That means something on the order of being 99% sure you would loose if you check and the opponent bets. In other words, if you think you only have one chance in 50, or even 75, to win the hand with a call, you should probably call. Now that violates the earlier suggestion, because there's little chance of getting 50-to-1 pot odds or better. But, if you are a beginner, calling should be the standard procedure here.
Posted Wed Sep 24, 2003 8:59 pm GMT by StanSmith
I don't agree that pot odds is an advanced concept. Being able to compute them reliably and quickly is an advanced skill, but the concept is simple enough.
I do agree you should make more calls on the river as a beginner, because it's important to get a feel for what people play with and because you don't know pot odds well enough to make a good decision. I think, however, that even as a beginner you should know the concept of pot odds exists and you should be trying to compute them. Otherwise you'll never stop being a beginner.
Martin
Posted Thu Sep 25, 2003 5:09 pm GMT by mindgame
touche'
I must agree that pot odds should not be ignored by the beginner. However, my suggestion is that pot odds should not be used as the basis of a "river" calling decision. The best use of pot odds is primarily when you are evalutating a decision about calling with more cards to come AND you are confident that making your hand gives you very, very solid prospects of winning the pot. Advanced beginners also consider the probablility that they will occasionally lose even on in some instances when they make their hands. More advanced players also factor in implied odds in addition to the pot odds offered, and most experts stress that implied odds (a judgemnent call rather than a mathematical one) are more important than the simple pot odds. My point? Pot odds are over-rated anyway and should not be applied to calling decisions on the river.
Posted Thu Sep 25, 2003 6:16 pm GMT by StanSmith
That makes a lot of sense, well put.
Martin
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