Posted Tue Sep 07, 2004 3:39 pm GMT by markball
i entered a private tournament last week on pokerstars. about 80 people, $10 buy in. down to about 50 people. i have 2500 in chips. blinds are at 50/100. Get pocket Kings on the button. about 2 limpers in, then the position before me raises to 300 (he has about the same amount of chips as me). so i reraise to 600. he is the only caller. flop comes 2 4 10. Rainbow. He checks, I bet 450. He calls. Turn 7. Still a rainbow. He checks, I bet 800, he calls. River 6. He checks and I go all in for my remaining 750 and he calls. He shows 3 5 suited. Ahahaha just gotta laugh at that, and know that he is the guy I am usually building my stack on.
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Posted Tue Sep 07, 2004 6:17 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
I don't think it was a terrible play on his part. He tried to steal it, and then put you on a big pair or high cards with your reraise and was getting 4-1 to call it. I gotta figure if he doesn't see something on the flop, he's throwing it away; but, he flops an open-ended straight draw, and the possibility to bust you if it hits.
I think you needed a pot-sized bet on the flop to get him out. If I'm adding it up right, you were giving him over 4-1 on his money on the flop ($450 to call your bet + the $1550 pot). Again on the turn, he has to call $800 to win $3200, which is close enough to gamble with when you're practically pot committed. The only part of it you can question is the initial raise. I'd play the rest of it the exact same way.
Anyone else analyze it differently? I'd like to hear your ideas.
Posted Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:09 pm GMT by markball
i understand your pot odds......but you have to take into account stack size also. i might have given him 4-1......but he started the hand with around 2500 chips and this is tourney play. my turn bet was 800, which was half his stack. if the 6 doesn't fall, he is down to 800 chips and basically out of the tournament.
Posted Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:25 am GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| markball wrote: | | i understand your pot odds......but you have to take into account stack size also. i might have given him 4-1......but he started the hand with around 2500 chips and this is tourney play. my turn bet was 800, which was half his stack. if the 6 doesn't fall, he is down to 800 chips and basically out of the tournament. |
By time your turn bet comes, he's already 1/3 invested and the importance of getting the correct odds to call can't simply be dismissed because it's tournament play. If you put him all in on the turn, then he has to make a decision on whether he wants to gamble, but you didn't do that. He's crippled if his draw misses, but he's certainly not out.
Posted Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:52 am GMT by markball
i guess i just don't understand your odds well enough. when i reraise preflop, he has to think Ace King or high pocket pair. So say he puts me on that pocket pair, he knows he is 20% to win the hand. So he already putting in 1/4 of his stack at a 20% shot to win the hand. After the flop he is now 35% to win the hand. My bet of 450 was not that much which in hindsight of this hand was the problem....but i mean come on now, who has pocket kings and bets huge when a flop is 2 4 J rainbow. his initial raise led me to believe that the only reason he could be calling after flop would be if he had something like Ace Jack, in which I was trying to get money out of him. Then turn comes a 7. He is now 18% to win the hand, and still has 1500 chips. i now bet 800, which is more than half his stack. 4-1 odds is a bad call, because his pot odds are 5-1 to win it, even less. so now he has a choice......he can basically be out of the tournament calling on a river that has an 82% chance of not falling, or he can keep his hopes alive, and try to get back into shape. luckily for him he caught his card.
i am not upset about the odds factor in this case.....but it does annoy me that you say you would have made a bigger bet on the flop. lets say the 6 doesn't fall for him. i look like a genius, which would happen 82% of the time. if you made a pot sized bet after the flop, yes you would probably take the pot down right then and there, but who does that. if you can sit there and seriously tell me that you would be scared of someone who calls a big re-raise, and a flop is 2 4 J rainbow, and you have pocket kings, then you are crazy. the only things i would be scared of is JJ or AA.
Posted Wed Sep 08, 2004 1:46 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
His odds to make the 6 on the river are a little over 4-1. But leave it at that for now.
You're only getting part of the reason for the pot sized bet. With a big overpair, having raised before the flop, your small bet on the flop can only cause problems. You said yourself the only hands you fear are AA and JJ, both of which I'd rule out because I'd expect a reraise preflop and this question becomes moot. I'd include 22 and 44 as well, but I'd then expect all his money in on the flop, and the question is moot again. In either case, I'd take my chances.
The reason you bet the flop hard is because the only hands that can call you are the ones you have beat and beaten badly. That's the action you want, not the guy with the low straight draw. If you bet the pot, you'll get called with everything from AJ down to JT thinking their hand may be best and you'll be a much bigger favorite than the 2-1 you were against the straight draw.
Don't make it cheap to call you when there's a draw on the board, regardless of how unlikely you consider it to be. Better to win a small pot than lose a big one.
I know you don't like this play, and that's fine. Perhaps someone will chime in with a different perspective. But to answer your question, yes, I would absolutely make a big bet on the flop.
Posted Wed Sep 08, 2004 2:20 pm GMT by markball
I understand what you are saying but I still would not bet huge here after the flop. That is what makes poker great though, everyone likes to play it differently.
My reasoning would be....say I know his cards after the flop. Even in this situation I wouldn't want to bet huge to push out his draw. I know that going into the turn, 65% of the time I am going to win, and going into the river, 82% of the time I am going to win. My objective would be to drain money out of him. If I bet huge....yes it is good that I won a small pot.....but if i set a trap, 65 and 82% of the time, I am gonna get paid off nicely. Obviously in this case, the odds didn't work out and he took my chips.
I mean in a loose $10 online tourney, who cares. I am just saying in a real big event, I think his play is a horrible play.
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