Posted Sun Oct 10, 2004 5:13 pm GMT by yankees2112
I understand most pot odds, but in certain situations i get a little confused. Say you are dealth to suited cards, and call a raise preflop with 2 ohter players. Then on the flop you get two of your suit on the board, but theres checks all the way down to you...wat do you do? do you make the pot odds rite by betting, or should you check?
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Posted Sun Oct 10, 2004 5:28 pm GMT by nickshepAK
You can bet but someone could have slow played top pair and they'll most likely play back at you with a raise so you will have to infest more money on a draw. Id check just to get a free peak and then fire away.
Posted Sun Oct 10, 2004 5:35 pm GMT by yankees2112
well wat if the flop is something like 6s 4s 7d...and im almost poistive noone has anyhthing, then should i make the pot odds rite or should i check?
Posted Sun Oct 10, 2004 5:57 pm GMT by snoogins47
What do you mean "make the pot odds rite?"
I'd like to tackle this question, but it's going to take a complete overhaul of your thought processes, and I'm in the middle of two tournaments. Give me an hour or two, and I'll reply then.
Posted Sun Oct 10, 2004 7:34 pm GMT by yankees2112
ok ill try rewriting it in more depth, ok, im dealt to cards, A10h, i call 2 raises preflop, so im in with 3 people in this hand. The flop comes 2h5h8d. THe pot rite now is around 20, should i bet 10 to make the pot odds rite by raising 10, 1/3 or should i check and leaving hte pot at 20 and looking to see if i will hit my flush on the turn or river without doing any odds?
Posted Sun Oct 10, 2004 8:16 pm GMT by snoogins47
Odds come in many forms.
Don't think of the pot odds as absolute like you do.
Ahem.
There is absolutely no right answer here.
Depending on their range of hands, their styles, etc... it all changes.
Your vision of pot odds is only what you should consider when you're thinking of CALLING. There, it's simple risk vs. reward. Chance of hitting draw vs. money in pot. You've got that part down, somewhat (though realize that you should calculate calling odds with the added caveat that you may miss on the turn, and have to call another bet, etc. 1/3rd isn't really right for a flush draw, considering you're likely to only see the next card for that, and then have to call again on the turn.)
Now, here's a little concept we'll call Pot Equity.
On the flop, you stand to hit your flush roughly 1/3rd of the time. We'll stick with that, to make our calculations simple. That's 2 to 1.
So right now, disregarding other factors such as overcards, backdoor draws, their likely holdings, we'll just say you will win this pot 1/3rd of the time, after seeing the flop, if we were to disregard betting.
Therefore, we have a concept called Pot Equity. Typically, you'd consider a pot equity of 33% in a flush draw.. again disregarding overcards and whatnot.
What this means, in essence, is that in the theoretical realm, you're getting 1/3rd of the money that goes into the pot at this point in time.
(For this example, ignore folding) Therefore, REGARDLESS of pot size, a bet is profitable if it will be called in more than two places. You bet $10, two people call $10. $30 goes in the pot. You win 1/3rd of the time... That's even money. 1/3rd of $30, is $10. Follow so far?
Good. Now that means, if you're going to be called in six places, you're making money by betting your flush draw. And if you're called in only 2, it still is probably worth betting, just because it's an even money proposition that disguises your hand (to somebody who isn't paying too much attention, that is)
Now, we have to add in one more caveat.
What's another way to win a pot? When the other players fold.
Look at that: betting your flush draw can accomplish this too. So, betting may be correct, even if you don't expect to get called in enough places to make it profitable in the first sense. That depends on how likely they are to fold to your bet, vs. how much is in the pot.
If they'll fold 50% of the time to a bet of $10, and 75% to a bet of $30...
Well, there's $20 in the pot now. Your bet of $10 will win you $20 half the time, and get called half the time. So, that's a profit, or Expected Value (EV) of $10 there.
Now, if you bet $30...
3 times out of 4 you will win $20. +$60.
That last one, you will get called. -$30.
Total EV: +$30.
So, the bigger bet would be more profitable than the smaller one, in the isolated realm we're talking about here, which ignores one scenario: you get called, and still win.
This is what's referred to as Semi-Bluffing. For instance, when you get called, you still have two chances to hit your hand.
Also, in your specific example... if you're up against something like top pair, or pocket Nines, you're actually a favorite against them The flush isn't necessarily the only way to win this hand. A Ten might win it. An Ace might. You might even be ahead of what the other players are holding, if they're looking at KQ, KJ, JT, stuff like that... even A9 or whatnot. If you're up against a set, your situation is much more grim... roughly 3 to 1 to win I believe, as the only way you can win the pot is to catch another heart, and there's no pair on the board on the river.
You have to take into account what the other players have done, what they may be holding.. what you WANT them to do... your position, what might happen on the turn in different circumstances, stack sizes if you're playing NL or PL, which this post I assume was referring to.
My analysis concludes: It Depends
Posted Sun Oct 10, 2004 9:17 pm GMT by nicthestick
we need to know if you are refering to NL, PL or str8 limit.
Posted Mon Oct 11, 2004 1:25 am GMT by Jauron
I don't think you consider pot odds when you bet, it's when calling you consider pot odds.
In this case, I think any bet less than 10 is foolish, might as well check. I think 15 is in order if you wish to take the pot down, and if you get called, well you have the nut flush draw to fall back on and two overcards. (unless we are talking tourney, in that case there are so many more things that come into play, I'm talking cash NL games)
With that in mind, you don't even have to bet, but if your going to call another bet, most of the time (unless you think your soundly beat) why not price it yourself, and take the chance you could win the pot outright?
I do not understand any sort of pot odds theory when betting, except to destroy pot odds for somebody else, in this case betting 30 would destroy pot odds for any drawing hand, and since you have the nut draw, it's not very likely anything but a made hand would call you.
I'm going to try to read Snoogins post, but I thought I'd post myself before I tried that.
Posted Mon Oct 11, 2004 3:14 am GMT by krakajak
First of all, don't call 2 raises with ATs. Don't even call one raise with it, unless you are in a very loose game. Raise with it, but don't call raises with it.
Since you did, however. You either want both of your opponents to stay in, or both of them to fold. This is not the type of hand you want to play heads up. If you bet big, you might get both of them to fold, but then again, one might call, and then you're heads up. Then, if you miss on the turn, you'll either have to bet bigger than you did on the flop you did on the flop (but now you won't be getting good odds on your bet), or check and fold. You could check for a free card, but then you wouldn't get much if you made your hand, for three reasons. The most obvious is that the money that would have been in the pot from the flop won't be in there. However, this also has a much larger side effect, in that the smaller pot will diminish the size of the bet your opponents will call when you make your hand. If there's only $30 in the pot, and your opponents suspect that you might have the flush, they aren't going to take as big of a risk as they would if there was $60 in the pot. Now, the bet you make after you make your hand is a zero risk investment, so you'd like to get as much out of that bet as possible. Building a pot now will help you do that. Finally, if you have been checking and calling all the way, and then suddenly bet big when the third suited card hits, it will be pretty obvious to your opponents that you have a flush, and they won't call too big of a bet. But, if you have been betting all along, your opponents will think that you are less likely to have it, and will be more likely to call your bet. In fact, one of them may even try to represent the flush by playing back at you; he might even go all in. So you need to bet. the question is how much. Ideally, you want to bet as much as both opponents will call. I'd bet a little less than whatever I thought that number was, just to be safe.
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