What's the probablity of this?!?! |
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Posted Tue Nov 16, 2004 2:39 pm GMT by mastermind
I was playing a friendly game of hold'em with my friends the other day. Well to make a long story short, I lose my four of a kind 8's to a royal flush! What are the odds of that happening? (heh, that's not a rhetorical question. specifically, what are the odds of a four of a kind higher than 8 losing? I'm really curious because this isn't the first time it's happened to me. I've had my quad 9's lose to quad 10's.
I would greatly appreciate this to anyone that can help, or can point me to a calculator that can do this.
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Posted Wed Nov 17, 2004 11:10 am GMT by Dave B
roughly the same as a trekkie getting sex at the playboy mansion.
Posted Wed Nov 17, 2004 1:27 pm GMT by K-rug
The problem with your reply Dave is that you are assuming the trekie would actually get invited to the playboy mansion in the first place.
Posted Fri Dec 10, 2004 11:53 pm GMT by gol4pro
Generically, it's not possible. There's too many cases. However, if you gave the specific board when you lost, it'd be easy to calculate.
Posted Sat Dec 11, 2004 6:02 pm GMT by Fat Tony
| Dave B wrote: | | roughly the same as a trekkie getting sex at the playboy mansion. |
the chances of that happening range from slim to none. 
Posted Sat Dec 11, 2004 7:59 pm GMT by Iron Butt
I need to be more math-y, I'll take a stab at it. If I make any mistakes please show me where I went wrong.
Assuming you get your quads on the flop and two players, I get 99.9% against AKs hitting the royal (the specific RF pocket cards shouldn't matter, I think, so long as the player holds the ace) and 95.5% (21 to 1) against overcard trips hitting quads. If the overpair doesn't hit the flop, it's the same situation as the RF (hitting perfect-perfect to win) and the same odds, 999 to 1 LOL. Making the RF draw a open end SF draw, you're still 91.2%.
Throwing in two more players for a worst-case scenario from the flop where you're playing against overcard trips, another overpair and the RF draw only brings it down to 94.8%. Making the RF draw a open end SF draw, you're down to 86.3%, 6 to 1.
Assuming you made your quads on the turn and a worst-case scenario where you're against two sets of overcard trips and the RF draw brings it all the way down to 92.5%, 12 to 1. Making the RF draw a open end SF draw, you're still 90%.
I think you could legitimately call it a bad beat LOL.
Kinda scary though how likely to occur even the worst beats are huh? 99.9% is as good as it gets if you don't have the immortal nuts. And as seen you can be only 6 to 1 with -quads- FFS. Never going to be able to be happy with a full boat again LOL.
Posted Sat Dec 11, 2004 8:50 pm GMT by wEbMaStEr
| Dave B wrote: | | roughly the same as a trekkie getting sex at the playboy mansion. |
This fails to factor in the constant that the women at the playboy mansion are all sluts who would f*ck anyone (allegedly)
Posted Sat Dec 11, 2004 11:27 pm GMT by xhi
Well if you had done that on the Party Poker bad beat tables you could have won $16000. The latest bad beat, which must be 4 eights or better the beater won 39000 the beaten 16000 and everyone else at the table 2500.
It seems to happen there relatively often. The pots in the Bad Beat Jackpot area have a little extra cut from each pot to form the jackpot.
Posted Sun Dec 12, 2004 4:49 am GMT by Iron Butt
Whoops, also:
| Quote: | | specifically, what are the odds of a four of a kind higher than 8 losing? |
Quad 9s on the flop are 99.5%+ against up to 4 random hands and a suited connecting overcard on the board, 99.4% against two overpairs, 95.5% (21 to 1) against trips, 91.2 (10 to 1) against an open SF draw, down to 86.8% against trips and an open SF draw.
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