Posted Wed Nov 17, 2004 9:36 am GMT by Muck
I was knocked out last night with AKs.
I moved all in and was called by one other player with AQs.
Now my mate and I were just discussing my chances at this point. He believes I was not much above a 50:50 chance to win but I think my odds were much better than this.
Since my chance to win should equal to his chance to lose and his chance to lose should be relative to his chance to win. Looking at his chance to win I surmised:
- Discount the ace since hitting it would not change the leader.
- I don’t have to worry about a high board making my higher kicker unplayable.
- He could make a nut flush (although so could I).
- His straight out will pair up my kings and brings me close to a straight as well (this probably only weakens it slightly).
- He could hit another queen (which he did).
What do people think?
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Posted Wed Nov 17, 2004 9:50 am GMT by Dave B
AK is a 71% to 29% favorite. Where can I play your friend?
Posted Wed Nov 17, 2004 10:45 am GMT by Geno
If you have someone 'dominated' (eg you both share a card and your other card is higher than theirs) they are a 3 to 1 dog to win it like Dave says. That must have sucked.
Posted Thu Nov 18, 2004 5:09 am GMT by Muck
The queen was the very first card dealt. I didn’t even get time to finish the sentence “Please no queens”
This may sound kind of strange but I wasn’t too bothered, in fact I was almost relieved. A few moment earlier things were pretty grim:
I’d been having a bad run of cold cards and the blinds were starting to bite. Then I picked up AKs, this was about 5 hands before I went out. My all in was called by 3 people so I didn’t like my chances, they checked it to the end and to my surprise my highest cards held up.
I was now in a position where a double through would put me on average chips and the blinds wouldn’t be so much of a threat.
The next bit you know 
Afterwards I was pleased I didn’t have to go to my friends and say “I went out because I miss read the situation and played the hand completely wrong.”
Posted Fri Dec 17, 2004 6:41 pm GMT by BigSlugger09
Yea, I dont know where your friend came up with the 50/50 idea.
Posted Sat Dec 25, 2004 11:16 pm GMT by vegasholdem
The AQz were the 3 to 1 Underdog.
Posted Sun Dec 26, 2004 8:13 am GMT by campbeas
Well I know what he was thinking when he said 50/50 but its definately wrong.
He was probably just looking at the odds of a K or a Q coming up to make a pair and the win. Technically the odds of a K or Q hitting are the exact same, so thats probably why he said 50/50.
Posted Wed Jan 05, 2005 10:36 am GMT by ReRaIsE
you think that's bad, check this out.
Monday night game, 5 players short handed night.
I get pocket 5's and limp in.
Flop is 5-5-10
player 1 bets $25
player 2 RAISES to $100
player 3 folds
SB folds
I raise ALL IN with $695
Player 1 folds
Player 2 calls-
Player 2 has pocket 10's for a full house, I have four 5's
turn is Q
River, you guessed it, is a 10.
Shit.
Posted Sun Jan 30, 2005 2:46 am GMT by Jauron
Thats a tough beat reraise...
Posted Sun Jan 30, 2005 9:25 am GMT by fonzerelli_79
had to reread your post
obviously AKs is the favourite
if no ace, king or queen drops then the majority of the time the king kicker will be declared the winner, Simple as that :D
Posted Thu Feb 17, 2005 11:44 am GMT by KINGJACK
cant see how he sees it was a 50-50 situation...
it was a little under 3/1 in your favor...
but those thigs happen.
Posted Thu Mar 03, 2005 8:59 am GMT by Muck
Happened again last night (AKs vs AQs) and noticing this thread brought me to thinking.
How close are you willing to push the odds?
Imagine your heads up. Pre-flop. You know exactly what the other player has. He moves all-in.
How big an edge do you want before you’ll call?
In a situation where you’ll either double through or go out of the tournament.
Posted Thu Mar 03, 2005 11:31 am GMT by Idaho
| Quote: | Imagine your heads up. Pre-flop. You know exactly what the other player has. He moves all-in.
How big an edge do you want before you’ll call? |
That's the million dollar question. And the answer depends on how much of a pot you are likely to win, how far it will take you towards making the money in a tourney and whether you can rebuy.
If it is down to the last three and you can bust someone out if you win the pot - then any edge is going to be ok.
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