Posted Sat Nov 22, 2003 12:30 pm GMT by mport1
My friends were arguing about this last night. I had low pocket pairs two times (2s and 4s) and folded on both of them for about 10 or 15 cents in a two dollar game. Both times I made the set after I had folded. They all told me that I should have atleast seen the flop with them, but I disagreed because I believe the chance of making the set is about 13%.
Then my friend said it doesn't matter since I most likely had the advantage going into the flop (since I already had a pair). I told him that even with having the advantage preflop, at least one person is likely to make a pair or something even better.
First of all, what is the probablility of all of two to three other players making a pair or better? Also, how do all of you play low pocket pairs?
And do you know any good links to places that show good analysis of starting hands?
Thanks for your help.
Did you know that participating in a poker forum can help you improve your own game? Be it by sharing experiences or simply asking for help, participation in a forum helps you focus and keep 'on topic' which will help you improve your game. You can learn from other players feedback and from their experiences. Why the THP poker forums? We offer one of the best managed texas holdem poker forums available, and the community within is far more friendly than those typicaly found on other sites. We've made a 'lurkers edition' of the poker forum available here on Holdem Poker Online, but we encourage all visitors to register and join in on the conversations on TexasHoldem-Poker.com
Posted Sat Nov 22, 2003 1:02 pm GMT by karasz
well it really comes down to a couple things
-what was your position?
-did anyone raise?
-how does everyone else play?
-
the odds are 7.5 to 1 against flopping a set (holding a pair and grabbing the 3rd) so that means every 15 times you get a pair, it will successfully set 2 times...
www.poker1.com/mcu/mculib_odds.asp thats where i got the odds... the basic data table for holdem...
Posted Sat Nov 22, 2003 2:29 pm GMT by mport1
The second time when I was holding the 2s, I was in last position. They just preflop since we were playing ante. I am a very tight player and most of the other players I play with are loose.
Posted Sat Nov 22, 2003 2:33 pm GMT by mport1
Also, I don't understand on the link you gave me how the information can be right. They say that the probability for being dealt pocket aces is 220:1 and the probability of being dealt 2 kings through 2 jacks is 73:1. How can that be? Wouldn't the probability of being dealt any pocket pair be the same?
Posted Sat Nov 22, 2003 4:27 pm GMT by karasz
| mport1 wrote: | | Also, I don't understand on the link you gave me how the information can be right. They say that the probability for being dealt pocket aces is 220:1 and the probability of being dealt 2 kings through 2 jacks is 73:1. How can that be? Wouldn't the probability of being dealt any pocket pair be the same? |
yes... but they fool ya a little... KK, QQ, JJ= 3 different hands... not just one
see how that works...
Posted Sat Nov 22, 2003 4:28 pm GMT by karasz
| mport1 wrote: | | The second time when I was holding the 2s, I was in last position. They just preflop since we were playing ante. I am a very tight player and most of the other players I play with are loose. |
then you 'should have' played the twos... i mean its really a toss up... but a safe assumption is no pre flop raises play any pair from the dealer spot...
but hey its a personal preference
Posted Sat Nov 22, 2003 5:03 pm GMT by mport1
| karasz wrote: | | mport1 wrote: | | The second time when I was holding the 2s, I was in last position. They just preflop since we were playing ante. I am a very tight player and most of the other players I play with are loose. |
then you 'should have' played the twos... i mean its really a toss up... but a safe assumption is no pre flop raises play any pair from the dealer spot...
but hey its a personal preference |
Sorry, I forgot a word in the post you quoted. I meant to say that they did raise preflop.
Posted Sun Nov 23, 2003 5:39 am GMT by karasz
if thats the case you made the right call by foding when they rose pre-flop...
just sucks you missed a set...
Posted Mon Dec 01, 2003 3:21 pm GMT by kluCAR
It is like that.
The odds of hitting set on the flop is 0.117. It happens once in 8.5-times. That means if u must put 1$ to se the flop it must be at least 8.5$ in the pot befour flop. But it is not necesery. It can be also less, for example 5$. But then u must earn another 3.5$ on the turn and river which is a piece of cake almost everytime. So my opininon is that u must see flop with low pocket pairs if u have to pay 1 unit. 2 only if u expect lots of callers afterwards. I think it is always smart to fold the second u realized the flop does not have your card.
Posted Mon May 31, 2004 5:56 pm GMT by snoogins47
I simply adore low pocket pairs.
The reason being: Sure, somewhere around 7 of every 8 times I get them, I'm not flopping a set.
And then I fold. Cost me 1 small bet each time.
Then that 8th time, I make my set. I'm usually bound to get some action by top pair, and maybe on a draw or two. Lets say the top pair on the board pairs up. All of a sudden, you might run into a capped betting situation with one, or two others, that you most likely have beat. Not always, mind you, but it's typically a nice situation to be in.
I think that if it's cheap, and you're pretty certain it's going to STAY cheap, not taking a flop with a pocket pair is a crime, just because the pay-out on those times you DO flop your set is huge compared to the price of one small bet, or of the big blind, or whatnot.
Just my opinion though, ya'll may feel free to disagree ;P
Posted Tue Jun 08, 2004 11:36 am GMT by Underbelly
I usually stay in with low pocket pairs if I can get in the hand cheap enough. If a see a couple a raises before me, I usually fold, putting at least one of the other players on a high pair.
Early in tournaments, I almost always see the flop on low pocket pairs just for that reason.
Posted Fri Jul 23, 2004 11:41 pm GMT by metal1
from what i've read and experienced seeing PP 2-6 cheap(or in position maybe calling a small raise) is the way to go. PP 7 and up you can play with more confidence
Posted Sat Aug 21, 2004 4:08 am GMT by vegasholdem
 Limp in as cheaply as possible when it comes to pocket pairs....if you are re-raised and everybody still calls to stay in....you should definitely call an extra bet!
Posted Sat Sep 04, 2004 9:40 am GMT by Ben4040
I was considering the angles of how to play low pocket pairs recently because I have been playing more ring games than I have in the past. I definitely agree with snoogins47, even if you make your set a very small amount of the time (is it 13%?) when you do hit your set you are going to win a large pot. I can't count how many times I have made a full house with my low pocket pair to bust someone who hit trip kings or aces or even a straight or flush. Generally I limp-in and see what develops. If I miss and there is betting I get out. The trouble I get into is when I limp-in and then get raised pre-flop. I am always wondering if I should call the re-raise or not. Generally if there is a lot of money already on the table and I am pretty sure everyone else who has already limped-in will call the raise, I will call as well. If not, I fold. Is this a bad policy?
Posted Sat Sep 04, 2004 4:57 pm GMT by vegasholdem
it's about:
7.7 to 1 against flopping a Set. That's 11.4% of the time.
When you have a pair preflop: it's about 2 to 1 against(full ring game) someone else having a paired holecards preflop while u do.
When you have a pair preflop: It's 9 to 1 against someone holding 99 or higher(full ring) preflop. That's why i usually raise/reraise when i hold JJ or higher!
Posted Sat Sep 04, 2004 10:13 pm GMT by TheDudeChad
Two words: Implied odds
When you flop a set, you can make a TON of money. You will get almost unlimited action from anyone with top pair or if your lucky, someone who caught two pair. When you have this situation, you can expect double your money by the end of the hand 
These implied odds make the call preflop very justifiable, even if the pot odds aren't.
I love playing pocket pairs. Another reason is because when the flop is low and you have an overpair. Ie. you have 77 and the board is 652. People with A high will call your bets because they can't figure out what you called with that is that low. They are very deceiving.
Posted Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:29 am GMT by salt_bagel
Sorry to jump into a big discussion with my first post, but this is a neat topic.
I love low pocket pairs because you can play them on either end of the spectrum, depending on position and your opposition. Any pocket pair is a favorite preflop over any non-pair, and you can outrace any one other person (in no-limit). In some cases against the right type of player I will reraise a pocket pair if I think they are coming with AJ or A10. Reason being I get the option of trapping them after the flop or getting a free card, especially if the flop comes junk. Mind you, this is only if I'm isolated in a high limit game. You can sometimes win bluffing at the pot in later rounds also if someone puts you on a high pair.
I think the problem everyone has with pocket pairs is bettability after the flop when overcards come. I think your money and your moves have to be made preflop with a low pair, because you get frozen unless you hit your set. But in the right situation, you can make yourself comfortable.
The math that comes into play is as follows:
For any particular card on the flop, chance of someone else having it is:
23% with 2 players
35% with 3 players
and up.
But also take into account what others might be calling and raising with, and you can eliminate a lot of numbers. As you might realize, loose players will eat up your pocket pairs, but aggressive, tight players can be had if you set them up.
Posted Sat Oct 16, 2004 8:43 am GMT by BMiller1980
Fold low pocket pairs when you are in early position. You can get in trouble quickly if you face a couple of raises. The only exception is if you are playing a game where there arent many preflop raises. If you do call in early position, don't be afraid to fold if you face a big raise in a no limit game, or a couple of raises in a fixed limit game.
Posted Sat Oct 16, 2004 8:51 am GMT by Jables
With a low pocket pair I will alwalys limp in to see the flop. If there is a raise I will most likely fold, and a re-raise is an automatic fold. If I don't get a set on the flop I will usually check/fold unless the betting is cheap.
Posted Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:55 pm GMT by Ciso_B
I will play any pocket pair, providing there are no raises too agressive..chances are my opponent has a higher pocket.
A good thing about pocket pairs are that when you make your set, its difficult for your opponents to read that you have, also if you raise a bit pre flop and overcards come, you can take a stab at it..The table may think you hit and you can maybe steal the pot (providing everyone checked, and preferably few people at flop)..If you are raised then you can release it anyway.
Just my thoughts on pocket pairs.
Posted Sun Nov 14, 2004 2:33 am GMT by sp3tz
You have to also take into account implied odds and the type of game you're playing. If I'm playing NL and no heavy raising and re-raising has been going on(especially from tight players) I'll call and see the flop. If I miss, I'm out. If I hit it I'm going to bet it, it's that simple. I love low pocket pairs simply because from my experience I usually win alot or lose peanuts. In limit poker I'll almost always go in with them and pray to hit my set, because where I play the 5 or so fish that usually play at a table, call any bets down to the river
Posted Sun Nov 14, 2004 2:59 pm GMT by zeroswarm
Well I havent been keeping any records but I reckon I only see the flop with a low pocket pair about 60% of the time. Obviously I would like to see it EVERY time but as I'm playing in NL tournaments theres often lots of preflop action which I do not really want to get heavily involved in with a hand like 3 3 or something.
Moving half your chips in to the middle with a low pair preflop would be like raising a loaded gun to your own head. You might not be immediately dead but one twitch and your surely in trouble.
Posted Thu Dec 16, 2004 1:56 pm GMT by PokerStudent
If you trust calculators you should consider a number of factors such as a number of players in the pot, current pot, future contribution to the pot, etc. Below is an example of calculations for 2c 2s pair with current pot 40 and expected future contribution by each player 70.
As you may see the bet depends on the number of people in the pot
N of pl.| Odds Call/Fold/Raise
_______________________________
2 | 50.2% or 1.01:1 raise
3 | 30.6% or 1: 2.27 call
4 | 22.0% or 1: 3.55 call
5 | 17.8% or 1: 4.62 fold
6 | 15.5% or 1: 5.45 call
7 | 14.1% or 1: 6.09 call
8 | 13.3% or 1: 6.52 raise
9 | 12.5% or 1: 7.00 raise
10 | 12.0% or 1: 7.33 raise
|
|
