Posted Wed Dec 15, 2004 8:07 pm GMT by Blsbball
I just read that part about Poker Odds. I have been playing about a month and have now decided in order to take my game to the next level I need to high integrate math into my skills. So I did a simulation and if someone could check and see if Im doing this right that would be great.
My cards come Ah Js
5 people playing including me
Flop comes Kh Js Ac
That means that there are 14 cards including mine out on the table which brings the cards to 38. And for my outs for pretty much make the best hand possible would be:
2 A left in deck
2 J
2 K
4 10
4 Queens whick makes 14 outs for the best hand which I would then do 14/38 which gives me 36 percent chance of making a really strong hand. Did I do that right? although in this situation iprob wouldnt be paying to much attention to the math after flopping A and J. thanks
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Posted Wed Dec 15, 2004 8:45 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| Blsbball wrote: | My cards come Ah Js
5 people playing including me
Flop comes Kh Js Ac |
You couldn't have the J of spades in your hand and on the board, so we'll just say the J on the board is a diamond. Sorry. Just being picky.
| Blsbball wrote: | | Did I do that right? |
Unfortunately, no, you're not really close. I'll go step by step...
| Blsbball wrote: |
That means that there are 14 cards including mine out on the table which brings the cards to 38. |
When calculating percentages, you can't exclude unseen cards from your calculation. In this case, you only know of 5 cards: the two in your hand and the three on the flop. That leaves the number of unseen cards as 47.
| Blsbball wrote: |
And for my outs for pretty much make the best hand possible would be:
2 A left in deck |
Yes, this will give you Aces full of Jacks. Won't get much better than that. The only hand that will beat you is AK.
Jacks full of Aces. Still very very good, but more hands beat you now: AA and KK.
Absolutely not. You only have two pair at this point. A second king on the board (of the 3 remaining, not 2) not only counterfeits your jacks, someone with a K beats you outright. A king is the LAST card you want to see.
| Blsbball wrote: | 4 10
4 Queens |
No and no. If a T hits the board, anyone holding a Q beats your 2 pair with a straight; and a Q on board makes anyone holding a T a winner over your same 2 pair.
| Blsbball wrote: |
whick makes 14 outs for the best hand which I would then do 14/38 which gives me 36 percent chance of making a really strong hand.
|
At best, you have 4 outs: the two remaining Jacks and the two remaining Aces. These are the only 4 cards that, by themselves, improve your hand. The other cards you listed damage your hand badly. So, if we take the number of outs you have remaining (4) and divide that by the number of unseen cards (47), you get the probability of improving your hand on the next card: (4/47)*100=8.5%.
Posted Thu Dec 16, 2004 12:01 am GMT by Blsbball
ahhhh i c. thanks a lot
Posted Thu Dec 16, 2004 12:46 am GMT by Sean_in_NJ
Study hard. Pop quiz on Monday. :D
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